Robot Revolution

Introduction

The main objective of current essay is to shed light on the likely effects of robots revolution on the job market at global level. The study is also expected to achieve the objective of guiding the graduate career by highlighting the job areas which have limited chances of risk regarding the replacement of manual jobs with robotics and artificial intelligence. In order to achieve the aim of present study, the focus has been maintained on the report of Bank of America Merrill Lynch that has focused on robot revolution. The objective of the study has been realized by relying on extensive review of literature.

The review of different articles of the economists have been carried out and other journal articles are also being reviewed to highlight the views of researchers regarding penetration of robots and replacement of manual jobs. The impact of robotics and artificial intelligence on wages of labours is also being discussed. Followed by this, the discussion has moved to the review of Bank of America’s Reports that has highlighted quantitative information in terms of penetration and growth of automated robots and artificial intelligence solution in major sectors of the economy.

The main focus has been maintained on the adoption of robotics technology by artificial intelligence, industrial, autos and transportation, aerospace and defence, financials, health care, services and mining.  The information has been mentioned regarding the type of robots that are being implied in all these sectors and their expected future growth has also been mentioned which is reflecting that how much of manual jobs can be replaced through automated technology. Finally, the influence of robotic revolution on job market has been discussed in the context of graduation career. At the end of essay, the conclusion has been made by discussing the main achievement of this study.

Literature Review

The virtual realm is facing technological explosion and digital start-ups are contributing in shifting the industries all over the world. It has been argued by Avent (2014) that third great wave has emerged with the technological interventions and advancement in computing and mode of communication. The economy has transformed as a result of technological revolution as the innovations has turned the face of many jobs by inventing new ways of doing them (Standage, 2016).

It has been argued in the article named “Rise of the robots: technology and threat of a mass unemployment” that along with driving the human progress, the technology can lead to a massive unemployment and it can lead to collapse of economies (Ford, 2015).  He has offered an instance of 3-D printing that has revolutionized the construction industry by living minimum chances of errors and by enhancing the accuracy in execution of construction designs. Along with this, the 3-D printing has also changed face of many jobs by excluding the involvement of humans (Barker and Ma, 2016).

Moreover, it has been suggested by the researchers that artificial intelligence is getting smarter with every passing day that could be seen in self driving cars, Siri and other smart algorithms (Siegele, 2014). The emergence of artificial intelligence has undoubtedly improved the lives of humans yet it also has a disastrous impact on the job market by obsoleting many effective and valuable jobs. The phrase of “disruptive technology has been used by most of the researchers while indicating the disruptive impact of technology on different sectors of job market (Walter, Röhrbein and Knoll, 2015).

The increasing robotisation has required restructuring in economic system by shifting the human labour to computation. As argued by Rumberger and Levin (1985) it has been believed by many that likewise industrial revolution the robotic revolution will also create number of jobs, more than it has eliminated. However, in the rise of robots the author has cleared that contemporary machines are able to take care of themselves and they need human assistance at small extent that will require only fewer jobs. The labour will be rendered superfluous through automation, computation and emergence of intelligent machines, which will shatter the economy by leaving huge population of unemployed (Evans-Pritchard, 2015).

The proportion of jobs which are being threatened through technological interventions are enormous in developing countries (Frey and Osborne, 2013). It has been reported that percentage of jobs which are being threatened through technological advancements is 69% in India, 77% in China and 85% in Ethiopia. The reason lies in the fact that return on investment of robotics can be gained more quickly than investment on labour intensive manufacturing (Bar-Cohen, 2009).

The development of industrial robots can cause premature deindustrialisation in less developed and countries, which is leaving many economists and industrialists in great worry (Ford, 2015). In addition to the developing countries, the developed countries are also under the influence of technological revolution as 47% of jobs in America have been reported to be influenced by computation.

Along with this, there is a good news for the people with great cognitive power and creativity that some jobs are unreplaceable through technology emergence (Bar-Cohen, Marom and Hanson, 2009). These jobs mainly refer to the areas that require new and creative ideas. For instance the job of creating valuable advertisement cannot be performed by the robots and it requires significant involvement of the humans with high level of creativity and potential to introduce newness (Gates, 2007). Similarly, the jobs which require complex human interactions are less likely to be replaced by the robots, such as the jobs of arguing a case in court room can only be carried out by the humans instead of robots (Frey and Osborne, 2013).

Followed by this, there are some jobs that require s substantial blend of analysis and dexterity and it requires involvement of humans. The nature of such jobs can be best explained by the example of open heart surgery. Therefore, on the basis of these instances it can be argued that fewer jobs cannot be replaced by the robots, however, there is still a considerable threat from development of technology in future (Vardi, 2012).

It has been highlighted in the past research that digital technology is creating noteworthy divide between the wealthy and the rest of society. The technologies that have been introduced in past have enhanced the level of wages of be increasing the efficiency of workers (Smith and Anderson, 2014). The current technologies are considered as of significant importance for empowering the talented employees which is widening the gap between earnings of skilled and semi-skilled workers (David, 2015).  The increasing automation is contributing to reduce the level of absorption for the low skilled workers which is creating a large pool of unemployed labor.

Review of Bank of America Merril Lynch Report

The robot revolution will bring many changes in industry and it is being expected that over the next 20 years the global economy will be transformed as robots will lower the cost of running businesses (Rotman, 2013). On the other hand there will be emergence of huge social inequality as the robots will take over all of the jobs from making a burger to serving it to the final customers. It has been highlighted in the report of bank America Merrill Lynch that both the artificial intelligence and robots are comprising the integral part of daily lives of humans (Bank of America, 2015).

The artificial intelligence and robots are playing man roles including; provision of labors, mobility, safety, entertainment and convenience. The report has further provided that sale of robots is increasing rapidly worldwide which has reported to be equal to 229,000 that is 29% increase during the 2014. These robots and artificial intelligence systems have penetrated in almost every industry and it has replicated human perceptions by doing task that were only doable by the humans. It has been forecasted that rate of robots penetration will reach to 45% by the year 2025 that has currently been reported to be equal to 10%. The emergence of robots and artificial intelligence has contributed noteworthy in reduction of cost that has declined to 27% in current year and it is further expected that cost will reduce to 22% in the coming 10 years (Siciliano et al., 2016).

On the other hand, the penetration of robots also have an impact on improvement of performance that has improved to 5% per year. Further it has been estimated in the report that robots and artificial intelligence systems will market at $ US 153 billion by the year 2020 that will be comprised of $ US 83 billion for robots and remaining $ US 70 billion of artificial intelligence based analytics. These forecasted values are indicating that there is higher growth margin of robots and artificial intelligence solutions in the coming years and it will occupy the future businesses (Rifkin, 1996). Along with this, the annual economic impact of robotics and artificial intelligence solutions has also been estimated to yield $ US 14-33 tn by the year 2025. This economic yield will be based on the ability of robots and artificial intelligence systems to reduce cost and offer high efficiency gains (Vanian, 2015).

The competitive advantage will be obtained by the entities who rely on early adoption of robots and artificial intelligence systems. On the other hand, the entities who lag in terms of investment may face disadvantage in terms of delayed adoption of these technologically advanced solutions that can suffer their efficiency and cost effectiveness in comparison to the competitors (Singer, 2008). By keeping the perspective of competitive advantage into account the report of bank of America has suggested eight different entry points for the entities who wish to invest in robotics and artificial intelligence systems. These entry points include the following; Artificial Intelligence, industrial automation, Auto and Transport, Aerospace and defense, Financials, Health Care, Services and Mining.

Artificial Intelligence: The artificial intelligence is the level of intelligence that is being indicated by machines and software, which has become a considerable part of technology industry. The progress of artificial intelligence in the form of machine learning, deep learning and voice recognition technology has mainly assisted to replace the knowledge workers. Along with this, the artificial intelligence is considered as core technology for internet of things and it is expected to increase rapidly over the coming years (Lingras and Akerkar, 2010).

Further the report has provided that growth of artificial intelligence has been seen as US $ 17 billion since 2009 to 2014 in which the US and Japanese companies are leading. Some of the significant companies who has invested in artificial intelligence are; Apple, Facebook, Google, IBM, Hitachi Intel, LinkedIn, NEC, Yahoo and Twitter (Bank of America, 2015). On the basis of current growth of artificial intelligence it is estimated that market of artificial intelligence will further grow to US $ 43.4 billion till the year 2020. Finally, the estimation has been made that full artificial intelligence is expected up to 50% by year 2040 and it is expected to 90% by the year 2075.

Industrial Automation: The industrial robots refer to the machines that have the potential to automatically control, manipulate and move the objects (Nitzan, 1985). The industrial automation has been considered as a key enabler of the industry and include the instances of; integrated robots, data analyst software, manufacturing assembly lines, simulation and supply chain management system (Fukuda at al., 2011).

The sales of industrial robots have reflected consecutive third year record in 2014 which is indicating that expansion of technology is evident. One of the largest buyer of robots is China which has enabled the China to gain 25% of market share in global market. It is expected that industrial and economic barriers will fall which will further foster the growth of industrial robots. Moreover it has been estimated that expected growth of global robots market will reach to US $ 24 billion at the CAGR of 8.5% (Bank of America, 2015).

Autos and Transport: The automotive value chain has witnessed significant growth as it generates US $ 5tn output on annual basis. The main examples of autos and transportation automation are the self-driving cars that have the ability to operate using sensors, radars and cameras (Smith and Anderson, 2014). The autos and transportation technology is expected to create US $ 87 billion by the year 2030 (Bank of America, 2015).

Aerospace and defense: The defense system is significantly adopting robotic solutions as they offer more safety, are flexible, cost effective and accurate (Ebel, 1986). The spending of US military on robotics has increased from US$ 283 million to 2.9 billion since 2014 to 2016. The spending of global military is increasing at 10.3% CAGR. The integrated drone system is comprising huge proportion of spending on robots and it is expected to offer US$ 82 billion by the year 2025 (Bank of America, 2015).

Financials: The financial robots includes Robo-advisor, Artificial intelligence, robo-analysts and automated trading systems. Along with this, fraud detection and risk identification has also become automated through advancement of technology (Fernandez et al., 2012). The mobile and electronic banking are also the blessings of financial technology. The report of Bank of America has predicted that financial technology will supplement human elements rather than replacing it.

Health Care: Medical robots, computer assisted surgery, care robots and telehealth has changed faced of traditional health care system (Bar-Cohen, Marom and Hanson, 2009). The market for computer based surgical equipment and health care robotics is expected to reach US $ 18 billion by the year 2022. The report has reflect that almost 570,000 surgery procedures were performed in 2014 by using robotics. The expected sales of medical robots is expected to be equal to 7,800 for the year 2015 to 2018 (Bank of America, 2015). Along with this, the care robots and tele health are also expected to show significant growth in coming years (Spana, Rane and Kaouk, 2011).

Services: the service robots include the care bots and service companions. The robots that re used for home tasks can help in cost reduction up to 250 to 500 billion. The domestic robots are expected to reach the sales target of US$ 12.2 billion by 2018 (Bank of America, 2015).

Mining: The mining is expected to show immature trend of growth in terms of penetration of robots. The advantages of technology that can benefit mining industry are low cost and increasing productivity.

Declining Job Market and Graduate Career

The research regarding automation of robotics and artificial intelligence in emerging sectors is reflecting that sooner robots will take over plenty of manual jobs that will reflect huge shift in job market (Hunt and Hunt, 1983). The huge percentage of workers is at the risk of being replaced by the technology over the coming decades. The report of Bank of America has highlighted substantial growth of robots in almost all sectors of economy. However, the report has provided that the penetration of robots in service sector will contribute to supplement the efforts of humans for greater effectiveness and productivity rather than replacing the humans with automated machines (Bank of America, 2015).

Therefore, it of significant importance to consider that service sector is currently the most secure sector that can be considered for graduate career. However, it has been provided by Levitan and Johnson (1982) that in US the recent jobs that have been created in service sector, have very low wages. In response to low wage trend in the service sector, the view of Lin, Abney and Bekey (2011) is noteworthy to be considered by the emerging graduates. The author has provided that in presence of extensive technology and robotics, the wages of skilled workers are much higher than the semi-skilled or unskilled workers. Given this view, the emerging graduates can consider to develop the level of their skills with an aim of earning higher wages in the service sector.

Along with service jobs, the jobs that require significant social interaction are hard to be performed by machines. Given this view, the career such as counseling, nursing, social care and teaching are expected to left for the humans after the robots revolution (Roberts, 2013). Likewise, in case of doctor’s profession, the role of social interaction with patients cannot be replaced with the machines and therefore, the traditional role of doctors will be performed by them at large even after the robots revolution. Followed by this, it has been highlighted in the research that although the computers can handle complex problems with greater ease, yet they are not able to generate new creative ideas (The guardian, N.D).

Therefore, the highly creative jobs such as writers, mathematicians and high level engineers less likely to be influenced by robots revolution. Finally, the digitally savvy people are considered as highly valuable by the contemporary organisations and these jobs are expected to be retained after the robots revolution (Vardi, 2012). The businesses are eagerly hiring people for smoothening the digital communication. Therefore, it can be suggested to the merging graduates that need to embrace the technology with an aim of sustaining their jobs after robots revolution (Arthur, 2015).

Conclusion

The current study has significantly achieved the key objectives by highlighting the trend of penetration of robotics in different sector of economy. The views of researchers have been considered who provided that computerisation is likely to replace the manual jobs as it will carry out restricting of economic system. The study has provided that in developing countries the enormous penetration of technology can cause deindustrialisation as there is greater percentage of jobs that can be eliminated through emergence of robotics technology in industry.

Likewise, the jobs that would be retained even after enormous emergence of technology will have an impact of wage level as a wider gap will be created between the pay of skilled and semi-skilled workers. Followed by this, the report of Bank of America Merrill Lynch has provided that robots will shift the job industry in coming years and huge social inequality will be created. The sales of robotics has enhanced by 29% and it has reached to 229,000 which is showing significant growth (Siciliano et al., 2016).

The robots are continually penetrating in all industries and it has carried out those jobs that were considered to be performed only by humans. The report has indicated that major emergence of robots will be through eight entry points. Among these entry points, the service sector has reflected that there still be the need of humans and robots will complement the human efforts rather than replacing it. Therefore, the graduate career has greater chances of absorption in service industry as there is relatively lesser risk regarding replacement of human jobs with technology in service sector.

 

 

 

 

 

References

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