Analyse The Tourism Industry In Africa Tourism Essay

Published Date: 23 Mar 2015

This section will set out the means by which the case study will be conducted. First, the models which will be used to analyse the tourism industry in Africa will be explained Subsequently, this section will look at the methodology for the regression analysis.

The models which will be used in the case study fall into two broad catagories. On the one hand, some models help define what the overall strategic framework for the African tourism industry might be, on the other, further models help formulate the best plans in more specific terms.

Models to help formulate an overall strategic framework include Smith's problem identification theory, Oldham, Creemers and Rebeck's model based on organisational objectives, and Hamel and Prahalad's contingency view of matching model to circumstance. In addition, other models such as a simple SWOT analysis or PESTEL overview can help link strategy to circumstance

Models which help generate add detail to the framework include Yoon's 'Structural Equation Model' and the similar models developed first by Crouch and Ritchie and later by Dwyer and Kim based around destination competitiveness and a hierarchy of priorities.

This section of the dissertation will look in more detail at the models which will be used in the case study, briefly outlining their theory and making clear how they work.

3.1 Overall Strategic Framework Models

This section outlines models which can help formulate overall strategic frameworks, and which will be used in the case study of Africa, below. The section will look at the notion of Butler's lifecycle planning and 'destination visioning'. Strategic planning needs to incorporate a long term perspective, the development of a holistic, integrated plan to manage change through goal formation and also formalise a decision process around the distribution of destination resources. Such a plan should also allow quick responses to changing situations. Kotler et al have been influential in helping shape this overview of what such planning must incorporate. Strategic planning is particularly important for sustainability, as goal setting allows all stakeholders to have input into the future of the destination and help create a clear shared vision. There are, however, problems, for example the views of different shareholders with different value systems might be difficult to reconcile (Cooper 2002).

The 'Life Cycle' approach offers a technique for destination management strategy and a way to incorporate a long-term perspective. By differentiating between different stages in the life of a destination, management approaches can be tailored to these stages. The notion was developed by Butler (1980), who suggested that destinations cycle through six sequential stages: exploration, involvement, consolidation, stagnation and decline / rejuvenation (see figure 1) (Dong et al 2004).

Stage

Tourist Characteristics

Local consequences

Exploration

Visitors explorers, travel individually, irregular patterns, predominant attraction natural

Locals do not understand needs of visitors

Involvement

Start of variation in tourist numbers, low/high season. Man made facilities appear

Residents start to dedicate resources to visitors, some advertising

Consolidation

Visitor numbers reach plateau. Package tours.

Local economy dependent upon tourism.

Stagnation

Destination well established but loses fashion. Peak capacity reached. Tourists psychocentric

Local economy dependent on tourism

Decline

Some destinations decline - decrease in market...

Impact on local economy as visitors decline

Rejvenation

... others recover by changing attractions, new natural resources

Further pressure on local economy

Figure 1: Butler's life cycle (adapted)

It is possible to adapt the idea of the life cycle to integrate sustainable tourism with appropriate management strategies at each stage of the cycle with holistic planning (Bramwell and Lane 1993). One useful approach is 'Life Cycle Analysis' (Jain 1985) which combines the notion of the life cycle with Porter's competitive position (dominant to weak). This is set out in figure 2 (Cooper 2003).

Competitive Position

Stages of Industry Maturity

Embryonic

Growth

Mature

Aging

Dominant

Fast growing

Start up

Fast growing, leadership

Renewing

Defending position

Defend position, Renew, cost leadership

Defend position

Focus

Renew

Adapt

Strong

Start up

Differentiate

Growth

Fast growth

Catch-up

Differentiate

Attain cost leadership

Renew

Focus

Change with industry

Find and retain niche

Grow with industry

Harvest

Favourable

Start up

Differentiate

Focus

Grow

Differentiate

Focus

Grow with industry

Find and hold niche

Renew

Turnaround

Differentiate

Grow with industry

Retrench

Turnaround

Tenable

Start up

Grow with Industry

Focus

Harvest, Catch-up

Find niche

Hold niche

Focus

Grow with industry

Harvest

Turnaround

Retrench

Divest

Retrench

Weak

Find niche

Catch up

Grow with industry

Turnaround

Retrench

Withdraw

Divest

Withdraw

Figure 2: Jain's Life Cycle Matrix (adapted from Cooper, 2003)

Another useful approach is that of 'Destination Visioning'. This was suggested by Ritchie (1994) as a way to address the needs of strategic planning for tourism. This approach places power in the hands of the community, including local government, residents and businesses who have a central role in creating a strategic plan for the destination. There are three key ideas involved in Ritchie's destination visioning. First, the vision needs to bring together the views the entire community as well as other stakeholders. Second, all involved parties need to agree about the vision, and third, the vision needs to incorporate long-term development plans. Cooper (2002) elaborates a practical strategy for delivering this vision with firstly a 'destination audit' - the commissioning of research to look at the nature of tourism in the region currently, the second stage 'position stagements' for key areas including market, investment, environment, and followed by 'visioning workshops' - perhaps the most important element with workshops held around the area to find out the views of all community members about tourism in the area. This feeds into the next stage 'Development of the Vision' where results are analysed and used to prepare a development plan. Finally, this is followed by the implementation scale. While there are acknowledged difficulties with Destination visioning - for example problems in making sure all community views are gathered, and difficulties gaining agreement on some areas, it seems a useful tool for developing a sustainable tourism plan (Cooper, 2002)

The case study will also bear in mind Oldham, Creemers and Rebeck's (2000) model based in purpose and objective, and the more contingent approach championed by both Pazstor (2001) and Hamel and Prahalad (1994).

While there has been much discussion regarding whether strategic frameworks are a useful tool for developing organizations and ventures, perhaps due to the rapid change in the business environment, it is assumed in this study that they can add value and help

formulate a better plan to deal with the future. They will be used in the case study to provide an overview for the tourism industry in Africa.

3.2 Models to Add Depth and Detail

This section sets out further models which will be used to add detail and depth to the case study by helping flesh out the overall strategic framework for African Tourism as it faces the next 10 years. Models of micro and macro environments can be useful, as are resource based views. A model by Yoon, and one based on ideas from Porter, developed by Crouch and Ritchie's (1999) and Dwyer and Kim (2003) are also discussed.

Many useful models look at the macro and micro environments. The macro environment equates to the external environment and involves the identification of threats and opportunities to the enterprise. Tools such as PESTEL (which looks at Political, Economic, Social, Technical, Enrivonmental and Legal issues) or STEEP (Socio-demographic, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political influences) are useful here. Other approaches extend these analyses by including 'international' 'communications' and 'infrastructure' for example. The micro environment, on the other hand, looks at the immediate competitive threats to the enterprise. Here Porter's 'five force' model to understand competitive position (see figure 4) is useful (The hospitality leisure sport and tourism network 2011 online)

Suppliers

STRATEGIC POSITION

Barriers to Entry

Substitutes

Buyers

Competitive Rivalry

Figure 3: Porter's Five Force Model

Porter's model is based upon an economic model called 'Structure-Conduct-Performance' (SCP), which assumes that the structure of an organization and the industry in which it operates dictates how that organization behaves, and in turn this determines profit (performance) (Henry 2008). The model helps an organization or enterprise determine the merits of any course of action by looking at the way the five forces Porter identifies are interacting. While Porter developed the model from the point of view of organizations already operating in an area, it is also valuable for organizations or enterprises determining whether to enter a competitive environment (Henry 2008).

Another useful approach is to look at organisational resources and competencies. The 'Resource Based View (RBV) looks in detail at the internal resources of the enterprise to work out how these can be used to gain maximum advantage. Porter's value chain EXPLAIN concept can be used to understand these core competencies (The Hospitality, Leisure, Sport and Tourism Network 2011 [online])

Yoon's 'Structural Equation Model' concerns the perspective of stakeholders in the tourism enterprise. It sets out the relationship between five areas: tourism development impacts, environmental attitudes, place attachment, development preferences about tourism attractions, and support for destination competitive strategy. The first three are exogenous, the latter two endogenous. Residents support for any future tourism, in the model, is determined by the way they perceive various aspects of tourism. Each of four elements or dimensions influences the total tourism impact, which in turn impacts upon the support for future tourism development. Yoon's model is based in social exchange theory, which suggests that people are more likely to take part in an exchange if they think they will benefit from the exchange and will not occur too many costs. Residents need to perceive the benefits of tourism outweighing the disadvantages in order that they give their support to future developments. The model is set out in fig 4 (Yoon et al 2001)

Economic

Impact

Social

Impact

Support for Tourism

Total

Impact

Cultural

Impact

Environmental

Impact

Figure 4: Yoon's Model

Crouch and Ritchie develop a model based on idea of competitive and comparative advantages, including human, physical and knowledge resources, capital, infrastructure, historical and cultural resources. In this model, 'attractions' are the basic building blocks of a destinations appeal to the public, and act as key motivators for visits. They can include cultural and natural elements. The model moves beyond merely listing advantages to incorporate a way to understand the relationships between the factors in a 'Conceptual Model of Destination' which looks at the micro environment (the competitive situation), the macro (global) environment, core resources and attractors for primary destination appeal elements, supporting or secondary destination appeal elements and also qualifying determinants.

Dwyer and Kim develop a model, strongly influenced by Crouch and Ritchie (Kozak and Andreu 2006), based around destination competitiveness that allows comparisons to be made between countries. They base competitiveness between destinations in terms of the various characteristics of a destination which make it desirable to visit. They also suggest that these factors can be managed in a process of 'Destination Management', promoting the appeal of core resources, strengthening their quality and adapting to contingent conditions (Dwyer and Kim 2003). Tourist destination attractiveness include natural resources (scenery, parks etc) and artificial resources (museums, hotels, culture). Administrative factors should increase attractiveness of basic resources and amplify their appeal. Administration should be conducted efficiently and with adaptation to contingencies (Navickas and Malakauskaite 2009). Factors form a hierarchy, with natural resources the base of a pyramid, followed by created resources, then administration. Above these levels is the need for a cohesive policy and development. This pyramid will be used to structure the case study discussion. The similarities between the two models are drawn out in figure 5:

Dwyer and Kim ('Integrated Model')

Crouch-Ritchie Model

Natural Resources

Cultural / Heritage Resources

Core Resources (Climate, Culture, Activities Mix, Special Events, Entertainment etc)

Supporting Factors and Resources (General Infrastructure, quality of service, accessibility of destination, hospitality)

Supporting Factors and Resources (Infrastructure, Accessibility, Hospitality, Enterprise)

Destination Management

Destination Management

Situational conditions

Destination Policy, Planning, Development

Competitive (micro) environment

Global (macro) environment

Demand Conditions

Qualifying and Amplifying Determinants

Figure 5: Dwyer and Kim, Crouch Ritchie Models (adapted from Dwyer and Kim 2003)

3.3 Regression Analysis

In addition to the tools outlined above which will be used to inform the case study, this study will also include data interrogation. Data will be collected from Africa as a whole and East and West Africa as sub regions to determine the change over time for key variables upon tourism. A regression analysis will also be included on the data. Regression analysis is a statistical technique used to predict the value of one variable when we know the values of other variables. It models the relationship between two or more variables (Cohen 2007). Simple linear regression helps identify the most representative straight line connecting two sets of variables, which multiple regression maps the relationships between more than two variables. The latter will be used in this case. (Buglear 2004).

4. Case Study: African Tourism

4.1 Overview of Africa and Tourism using Business Models and Tools

The methodology has set out a number of useful tools for analysing the resources of Africa as a tourist destination, which can be used in turn to develop an overall strategy for tourism, both in Africa overall and with references to differences between East and West. The following will discuss Africa in these terms, first using tools identified in the literature review such as PESTEL, STEEP and Porter's Five Forces to look at Africa's current position, and then taking a wider strategic view, again drawing upon tools and models discussed in the methodology.   While tools such as PESTEL and STEEP distinguish different areas of consideration, to some extent these divisions are artificial, and the areas overlap to some extent.

4.1.1 The Political Situation

Most available information relates to the political and economic climate in Africa, and what it means for tourism.  Tourists are, for example, highly sensitive to political instability, and can fear for their personal safety. It has been suggested (Okech 2010) that only democratic countries with a respect for law and human rights can create the stability which is necessary for tourism development.

The political history of Africa is complex, with many countries facing severe political problems which have their roots in colonialism and its aftermath. The Cold War and, more recently, Globalisation, have also had an impact. However, international news coverage can lead to a skewed notion that Africa is a state of ongoing political crisis. In fact, most of the countries which make up Africa, despite problems, are not in meltdown. In addition, the 1990's saw a movement dubbed 'Africa's Second Liberation' or 'Second Independence' with more than 20 countries moving from authoritarian regimes to more democratic decision making.  To some extent however, countries are still marked by (Exploring Africa 2011 [online]) lack of democracy and plagued by rivalries between ethnic, religious and regional groups. Human rights abuses, corruption and authoritarian regimes still exist.   This can prove a disincentive to more main-stream tourists.

Despite these problems, Many African governments are aware of the potential of tourism. Tourism allows governments to profit financially as they gain both through taxes and indirectly through duties upon items tourists buy including drink, petrol and hotel accommodation. To this the income from foreign exchanges and tax on those employed in the tourism sector can be added (Okech 2010).  Countries are consequently  investing heavily in tourism development, attempting both to promote their countries and to redeem the image of the destination. For example, Nigeria's Federal Capital Territory have allocated large resources to tourism (Kareen 2008).

This new focus on tourism has been further fuelled by international development agencies such as the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation, the British Department for International Development and the SNV Netherlands Development Organisation. However, investment from outside needs to be matched by government policy in order that investment can contribute to economic and social development in the most 'joined-up' way.   Cross-border initiatives are also increasingly important, as tourists frequently travel across a number of African countries during their stay.  The 'New Partnership for Africa's Development (NPAD [online] 2010), for example, sees a number of African companies join together together with a shared  recognition that tourism has great potential for economic development. Through   the 'Tourism Action Plan' the NPAD set out a strategy for managing this potential. The strategy encompasses including key objectives such as creating a regulatory environment, strengthening planning, improving marketing and communications, promoting research and development, formulating education and skills training, and improvements to infrastructure (Rogerson 2007).

Many individual countries have a range of strategies to boost tourism. Some offer incentives; for example Tanzania has reduced visa costs. Some governments develop incentives for industry by offering, for example, help with marketing cash subsidies, business finance or skills development.  Lack of funding is always an issue especially in countries like Africa where there are high levels of poverty, and tourism might seem less of an immediate priority.

In addition to initiatives by individual countries, there is a move towards establishing links between African countries to help tourism, as visitors often want to see more than one country. An example is a recent links between Angola and Nambia, another the 'Peace Parks' - trans-frontier conservation areas, parks which cross boundaries and which need joint management by governments. The Peace Park foundation was created 1997 and there are now 10 established parks. Governments are learning from more established destinations,  for example South Africa

(Euromonitor 2010)

However, it is also recognised that governments need to take pro-active approach which takes into account input from all stakeholders, and that there is a need to draft policies and through consultation with all residents. There is an equal need for planning control, investment incentives in order to include even the poorest areas in initiatives (Okech 2010). However, while this aim is clearly desirable, it has to be questioned whether African countries will be able to implement this in practice, given some history of less than fair business practices and the existence of bribery and corruption in the past. This is an under-researched area where more primary research would be welcomed.

4.1.2 Economic Aspects

In terms of the economy, Africa overall has acknowledged problems including economic stagnation, international debts, deficits, rising inflation and lack of growth (Rogerson 2007).   There are some signs that the economy is slowly improving, especially in terms of international trading relations, and particularly relationships with China and India.  For example, Africa-China trade was 10.6 billion dollars in 2000, 40 billion in 2005 and rose to 107 billion in 2007. Already over 700 Chinese companies operate in sub-Saharan Africa. China has also been involved in the development of Infrastructure including roads and other transport links. Oil producing regions in Africa, for example Sudan, Nigeria and Angloa, are growing in international importance (Euromonitor 2010). International investment has doubled in size between 2004 and 2005 due largely to the trend for China and other Asian countries to increase their presence and second the improvements to African infrastructure generally and particularly to the financial infrastructure including expansions of the debt and equity markets (Nelson 2007).  In addition, Africa seems to escaped the worst of the international recession: Africa as a whole has shown higher GDP growth than the global average, with a slight rise in average spend. However, the recession still had an impact due to a decline in visitors from regions hit by downturn more severely.  Despite these favourable signs for the future,  the African economy has declined in most countries over last few years with lower standards of living and higher levels of poverty. Naturally related problems including drought and famine play a part; in addition political factors contribute to this less than favourable outlook: for example Kenya suffered a decline after political violence in 2007/8 (Euromonitor 2010).  There has been some increase in poverty levels overall,  and falls to standards of living (Okech 2010).  There exist wide diversities between the different African countries in terms of Gross Domestic Product (Kareen 2008)

Against this background, there is widespread hope that  tourism offers a way to  boost economy (Rogerson 2007). Where tourism infrastructure does currently exist, it is often foreign-owned.  There is evidence to suggest that this hope is well-founded: some countries in Africa, for example The Gambia and Ethiopia, have experienced 20% growth in tourism over the last 20 years. Rates of increase are different in different regions, but the trend is towards growth. Overall, over the same time period, Africa has been increasing its market share of the tourism industry with 60% of international tourists now visiting for leisure purposes. In 2005 Africa had the best performance for growth of international arrivals of all the world tourism organisation UNWTO's areas.  Tourism offers opportunities to all, as the market is growing, and has tripled between 1970 and 2003 with increases set to continue (Nelson 2007).  Tourism offers particular opportunities to Africa as it is relatively poor in exportable commodities.  This is confirmed by existing research. While there is a lack of published studies in the area, those that do exist back up the idea that tourism can work for Africa. For example, Fayissa, Nsiah and Tadasse (2007) - found that tourism has contributed to the GDP and economic growth of African countries, and recommended strengthening the tourism industry for economic advantage. Other researchers writing about the benefits of tourism wider afield suggest that tourism is beneficial for economic growth particularly for developing (rather than developed) (Eugenio Martin et al 2004).  Other researchers found tourism played a positive role for the economy by increasing competition amongst providers of tourism services Krueger, 1980). In 2008, Kareen found, through analysis of panel data for 36 African countries, that tourism and economic growth are significantly related. He also suggests that tourism as an export product can be used to predict future economic growth in Africa. In addition, he suggests that there is a two-way relationship between tourism expenditure and economic growth with one feeding into the other. Higher tourism expenditure leads to higher growth, and acccalerated economic growth in turn leads to more tourism. He concludes that this relationship needs to be more widely recognised and integrated into strategy (Kareem 2008). Kareem's study is a welcome addition to an area which currently lacks research. However, it is primarily concerned with statistical analyses of panel data, and less with discussing the implications for promoting tourism in Africa. More discussion would be welcome to clarify what his findings mean for the industry as a whole.

The negative economic impact of tourism also needs to be kept in mind. The bulk of purchases made by tourists are non-exportable. By consuming produce of interest to the local market, tourism can make these more scarce and more expensive for local people  (Kareen 2008). Mass tourism can also have a negative impact on sustainability and the environment, which will be discussed later.

One particularly important area of the economy and the impact of tourism is in the area of employment. Tourism is labour intensive, and creates a large amount of jobs including guides, interpreters, positions in travel, hotel vacancies, catering and entertainment, cultural and sports jobs. In addition it boost a number of jobs in the informal economy including prostitution and drugs.   Currently, tourism provides between 2 and 6% of jobs in Africa, with women representing 50% of the workforce.   While tourism offers the potential for increased employment, there are a number of problems to be negotiated. Current employment opportunities tend to be low or unskilled, and the infrastructure is lacking with little job security, little formal training or employee development, and few prospects for career development or personal improvement. Factors such as these cause a demoralised workforce and can impact upon productivity. In addition employment is seasonal with most travel taking place in the northern hemisphere Winter, and with a quieter period between April to August.. This particularly effects beach destinations including Kenya in East Africa and Gambia in the West.  Many employees lose their job in low season. A further problem is that the concept of tourism is not universal. Many people in Africa, especially those in the more remote villages, do not understand the idea, and therefore fail to see the opportunities for employment and economic enhancement  (Kareem 2008).

Economic considerations cannot be seen in isolation however. It should be noted that poverty, which is rife in Africa, is not just about income. It forms a complex two-way relationship with disease, literacy, the environment, education, access to justice, disempowerment and infant death (Okech 2010)

4.1.3. Other Factors

While politics and economics are perhaps the most important factors to consider in devising a tourist policy for Africa, other factors play a part. One currently important socio-economic factor is the growth of interest in and demand for eco-travel, sustainability and 'pro-poor' tourism.  Interest in these areas have been worldwide, as people have become increasingly aware of the consequences of mass market tourism. While it can bring economic advantage to tourist destinations, there are also many negative consequences including damage to the region environmentally, displacement of people, cultural upheaval, and (through foreign ownership) funds not benefiting local people. The original focus of sustainable tourism was upon protecting the environment, for example native species and bio-diversity were damaged by construction of hotels, roads and similar, but this focus has widened. The remit now includes social, economic and cultural facets, and encompasses varied areas including the 'greening' of the industry by a new focus upon waste management and energy efficiency, protection of all resources from the environment to local cultures, the awareness of the importance of involving local communities in initiatives, and 'pro-poor' measures (Kandari and Chandra 2004).  

Africa's environment is one of the key attractions for visitors, as it has many areas of natural beauty and interest (Spenceley 2008). Key natural attractions include Victoria Falls in Zimbabwe, Okavango Delta in Botswana and the Namib Desert in Namibia (Bennett et al 2001). However, there are other issues which impact upon these natural attractions, and which make incorporating a sustainable perspective into tourism strategy imperative.  Parts of Africa are subject to severe climatic conditions, and the natural attractions are also threatened by human action, for example the destruction of the rain forest and savanna, and changes to the levels of bio-diversity amongst plants and animals. These environmental issues have led to political and cultural changes, for example as early as 1977 Gambia formulated the Banjal Declaration as a response to loss of wildlife. This aimed to protect biodiversity, conserve existing resources and ensure that species do not become extinct (Weaver 2001)

Despite the relatively small size of the tourism industry in Africa currently, there has been widespread recognition of the need to promote sustainable development in the industry. The World Bank, for example, is committed to sustainable management in Africa in order to 'Enhance Livelihoods', 'Protect People's Health' and 'Reduce People's Vulnerability' to environmental risks. The African Region Environmental Strategy (ARES) also makes the support of environmentally oriented tourism a priority (World Bank 2001)

Pro-Poor tourism is a fairly recent concept, which aims to ensure that revenue flows back go grass roots levels and entrepreneurs (Kareem 2008).  Pro-poor tourism is an initiative which hopes to increase benefits to poor locals from tourism, and tries to integrate these economic benefits in a way which will reduce poverty long-term. It characterizes an approach rather than a product or sector. It relates to 'sustainable' tourism, and they have areas in common, but pro-poor tourism is different, with a higher focus upon poverty.  Many African countries are characterized by high levels of poverty, and there is a consequent need for strategy to incorporate pro-poor measures into tourism (Ashley et al 2001). Pro-poor tourism also helps the tourist feel involved with the people of the region visited (Okech 2010). Pro-poor tourism is a multi faceted approach which includes, for example, offering support to small local businesses, boosting tourism to rural areas, forming partnerships between local communities and busineses, involving communities in planning and improving tourism in ways which clearly benefit the poor (for example improving working conditions) (Kandari and Chandra 2004).   Other strategies can include promoting the ability of local people to provide tourist products, marketing, linking with private sector, policy and participative decision-making. A pro-poor initiative can focus upon the small scale or take the form of a national scheme. The various aspects of pro-poor strategy can be analysed into three streams. First, the aim to expand economic benefits for people in poverty, second to deal with the non-economic consequences of poverty, and third to develop core policies, systems and partnerships. Evidence so far suggests that pro-poor tourism initiatives can help lift people out of poverty, although success seems to depend to some extent upon access to education and infrastructure, and results are further mediated by cultural factors.  The accessibility of regions (including not just locations but the existence of cultural elites, social constraints), the commercial viability of the product and national and local policies all play a part in determining success. Overall, pro-poor tourism (PPT) works best in the context of a wider agenda for the area and already well developed areas. There is also a need for a 'stakeholder' approach in which all interested parties have a say. Although a new development, there are signs of infrastructure to address the demand for pro-poor tourism, for example the African Pro-Poor Tourism Development Centre in Kenya (Okech 2010)

Other factors in the African situation include technology and infrastructure. While mobile services are growing quickly, and mobile phones becoming widely used, Africa's online provision lacks behind the rest of the world with only 6.2% of the population having internet access (this varies between countries) (Euromonitor 2010). This lack of connectivity in Africa and a poor digital infrastructure will have clear impacts upon tourism in Africa, for example on the ability of small-scale businesses to promote their services, on the awareness of local people of employment opportunities, and of the more widespread marketing of African destinations as a whole to overseas tourists.

Problems with infrastructure are not limited to online and digital services. Hotel provision and road, rail and airport networks are underdeveloped.   Most current visitors to Africa stay in hotels, but hostels, lodges and private accommodation are also used. Independent hotels are dominant, with international chains having presence only in key tourism areas (Euromonitor 2010).   Roads need improvement, rail travel is difficult as the network is not comprehensive, services are slow and trains unreliable. Air, after road, is the second most popular transport form, but air travel is expensive and standards questionable. National carriers tend to have a monopoly, and there are few budget air travel providers (Euromonitor 2010)

There has been some recent investment in infrastructure, largely as a result of overseas investment from China in particular. Although not done for the tourist industry directly, the improvements do help the industry considerably, for example the building of the Mkapa Bridge across Tanzania's Rufiji river has improved access to the southern coast (Nelson 2007).

4.1.4 Further analyses of Competitive Position

Porter's 'Five Forces' model can be used to explore the competitive position of Africa in regards to tourism. Porter isolates five areas which together determine a strategic position for an organisation or enterprise. In terms of the first, the 'suppliers' are the African countries which make up Africa as a whole, and within these the myriad of individual suppliers of accommodation, transport and other tourist products. These are primarily small and local providers, but there is scope for expansion here. International suppliers are currently few. In terms of 'competitive rivalry', Africa is competing with other tourist destinations, but perhaps more particularly with destinations which have been overlooked in the past, and ones which offer a range of natural attractions.  Perhaps the biggest rivals are from the more developed African destinations of North and South Africa, which are better known, better marketed, and more able to cope with tourism due to an established network of hotels and other resources. The threat of substitutes concerns the market's willingness to accept another offering which addresses the same needs. In an area like tourism, where destinations are the product rather than, for example, soap powder, where a number of products do the same job, there is a need to highlight the unique destination qualities to ensure that there can be no substitute product.

Buyers for the African tourist product are currently outside the mass market. There are also sub-groups of buyers, including those interested in wildlife and safari holidays. Africa as a whole needs to consider whether they want to move into the mass market, or address smaller niches such as eco or pro-poor tourism.

'Barriers to entry' are diverse.  They include lack of price and quality competitiveness (Christie and Crompton 2003), poor air transport, lack of facilities, lack  of adequate information and poor public perceptions of, (and the existence of),  poverty, disease and  conflict (Kestler).   Public health services are underdeveloped, and travellers are more likely to fear for their safety (Gauci et al 2003), and be deterred by the risk associated with turbulent political situations (Eliat and Einav 2003).  Marketing needs careful consideration to mitigate the effect of these barriers  (Okech 2010).

The models by Dwyer and Kim (2003) and Crouch and Ritchie (1999) discussed earlier can also be used to get an overview of the actual and potential for tourism in Africa, as summarised in the following table:

Dwyer and Kim ('Integrated Model')

Crouch-Ritchie Model

Africa

Natural Resources

Cultural / Heritage Resources

Core Resources (Climate, Culture, Activities Mix, Special Events, Entertainment etc)

Wildlife, natural attractions, unique culture, specialised attractions e.g. Safari. Scope for development

Supporting Factors and Resources (General Infrastructure, quality of service, accessibility of destination, hospitality)

Supporting Factors and Resources (Infrastructure, Accessibility, Hospitality, Enterprise)

Infrastructure improving, but room for further improvement. Inter and Intra Africa travel can be improved. Also scope for improvement in hotels, other services

Destination Management

Destination Management

Ad hoc

Situational conditions

Destination Policy, Planning, Development

Some government / other schemes, room for new initiatives

Competitive (micro) environment

Unique product can reduce competition from other sources. Main competition for individual destinations other African destinations

Global (macro) environment

Poor image of Africa outside continent

Demand Conditions

Qualifying and Amplifying Determinants

Demand for eco tourism

Figure 6: Dwyer and Kim / Crouch and Ritchie Models for Africa

4.2 Strategic Planning for Africa

So far,  Africa has failed to fully capitalise on its tourism potential, although efforts have been made over the last 30 years and the role tourism can play in the economy has been noted, particularly since 1990 with more recent attempts to set a sustainable agenda (Kareem 2008). This section will, using models identified earlier, look at the current situation and map out possibilities.

In terms of Butler's life cycle, Africa overall seem to be at stage two 'involvement'.   There is some division between low and high seasons, with most visitors during October to April, and some attempt to advertise and dedicate resources to visitors.  Individual regions in Africa, and within these individual destinations, vary considerably however, with some well-known resorts at a later developmental stage, and with North and South Africa ahead of West and East.   In terms of Jain's 'Life Cycle Analysis', the overall position of Africa seems to be either 'favourable' (if barriers to entry can be overcome) or 'tenable', with maturity stage predominantly 'growth' with individual destinations more or less mature. The aims for this grouping are finding a niche, holding that niche, growing and focussing, which seem to characterise the current need of Africa to overcome problems as a destination and develop a 'joined up' approach to the market, for example by addressing issues with political stability, infrastructure, information provision and marketing (Naude and Saayman 2003), lack of skills and training, poor standards, and above all the lack of overall strategy (Rogerson 2007).

One way to focus such a strategy is upon eco- and pro-poor tourism, as part of a wider agenda of sustainability. This focus has the added benefit that it is supported by wider organisations for example the WWF and USAID, who have already donated money to help African destinations develop eco products including 'agritourism', in which city dwellers try rural life by living on working farms (Euromonitor 2010). Ritchie's 'Destination Visioning' seems an ideal way of developing an overall strategy for Africa, and within Africa for individual regions and countries.  Rather than imposing a vision from above, through government decision being forced upon Africa's people, this strategy involves all stakeholders from the offset. This seems the best way to ensure that all, including the poor, have a say in Africa's future as a destination. Cooper suggests a 'destination audit' and 'visioning workshops' to gather the views of all interested parties.  Yoon's model might be a useful way of synthesising the diverse views of stakeholders. As discussed above, Yoon classifies stakeholder perspectives into the economic, social, cultural and environmental impact, and uses these to quantify a total impact.   This seems to suggest a way for conflicting perspectives, for example the need to protect bio-diversity and the need to build larger hotels, to be compared and an overall impact calculated.

Just as North and South Africa have developed as very distinct tourist destinations with unique attractions, there is considerable potential for West and East Africa to develop their own identity as destinations, with East Africa particularly concerned with sustainability, biodiversity and conservation (Nelson 2007; Mugo 2006).  Existing research comparing the two regions is largely concentrated on East Africa, where a high potential for conservation-based tourism is found. Ecological resources are currently a major draw for tourists, and offer further economic potential. Kenya and Tanzania have already started to capitalise on this potential with growth promoted by investment as part of wider economic strategies, poverty reduction strategies and infrastructure Improvement. At the same time, there are many areas which are currently undeveloped as destinations (South Tanzania, Mozambique), including coastal regions. There is currently more emphasis upon inland resources and safaris (Nelson 2007).

4.3 Data Analysis

In order to assess the development of tourism in Africa, data from 6 African countries (three from East and three from West Africa) was analysed, and the results inform and support the discussion above.   The six countries are Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya (East) and Senegal, Ghana and Gambia (West). The data, shown in Appendix 1, from individual countries confirms a general pattern of growth which is more or less marked by country. Data is shown from 2003 to 2007 for West Africa, and 2005 to 2009 for East, for a number of variables including arrivals, arrivals by region, arrivals by main purpose, mode of transport and expenditure. While full data is given, it is interesting to summarise the data into West and East Africa, and also look at distributions for Africa overall. In calculating grouped data, where data was missing for one year for a country, it was calculated by averaging from other years. Where data was missing for a variable across years, an estimate was used based on averages for remaining countries. Note, in the following tables, 'West' and 'East' Africa denote the three countries for which data was examined.

Figure 7: Arrivals into West Africa (000's)

Figure 7 demonstrates that arrivals have increased fairly steadily over the five year period. Figure 8 shows arrivals for tourism purposes (leisure, recreation and holidays)

Figure 8: Arrivals for purposes of tourism into West Africa (000's)

Here there is some overall increase, but a large count in 2003 was not matched in subsequent years. Here future data and data from previous years would be interesting. Figure 9 shows expenditure (US $ Mn)

Figure 9: Spend West Africa (US $ Mn totalled across 3 countries)

Spend, it is clear, has increased on average over the 5 year period with a slight tailing off in 2007. In terms of GDP, tourism's share seems pretty level over the 5 year period, starting at 4.75 and at 4.85 in 2007, so a longer period of study is needed here, or to include data from other destinations.

Total hotel room numbers (figure 10) has also increased, as has (overall) visitors from Europe (figure 11)

Figure 10:Total Hotel Rooms West Africa

Figure 11: Arrivals from Europe into West Africa (000's)

While this paints a positive picture of tourism growth in West Africa, it would have been ideal to include data from a greater number of destinations to avoid 'skew' from one particularly popular or unpopular destination. Within East Africa, there are no figures for tourism's contribution to GDP, and only data for Kenya regarding hotels, so these tables have been omitted. However arrivals (table 12) and arrivals for the purpose of tourism also show growth, as do spend (figure 13) and arrivals from Europe (here 2008/2009 data was missing for Kenya: 2007 was used)

Figure 12: Arrivals into East Africa (000's)

Figure 13: Spend East Africa (total of mean $ for 3 countries)

Figure 14: Europe arrivals to East Africa (000's)

Again, the overall trend is upwards. Africa as a whole can also be examined, for the overlapping period of 2005-2007. Arrivals (figure 15), arrivals for the purpose of tourism (figure 16), expenditure (figure 17), and European arrivals (figure 18) have all increased steadily over the three years.

Figure 15: Arrivals into Africa (000's)

Figure 16: Arrivals Africa for tourism (000's)

Figure 17: Expenditure Africa (total of mean $ for 6 countries)

Figure 18: Europe Arrivals to Africa (000's)