Considering The Future Of The Internet

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

New technologies are likely to lead to a change in the World Wide Web (WWW) over the next five years. Therefore, I am researching the topic of ‘the future of the web’ for my dissertation as it gives me a great opportunity to gain a substantial amount of knowledge on a subject that I am interested in. It will combine the knowledge gained so far from a Web Design Degree course I am studying and help my aspiration for a career within this field. I will look at the social & commercial impact of this and to think about the future and the new technologies coming our way. Within this dissertation I will be looking back five years at the Web 2.0 and discussing how much things have changed in the last five years and consider and evaluate future ideas of the web for the next five years.

Key Terminology

While a variety of definitions of the term ‘the internet of things’ have been suggested, this dissertation will use the definition first suggested by Ashton (1999) who saw it as uniquely identifiable objects. Throughout this dissertation, the term ‘the internet of things’ will refer to Kelly (2007) whose reflection on this refers to everyday items being linked together and accessible through means of using the internet. The abbreviation WWW or web will be used to define the term World Wide Web, along with app meaning application. The term interface is used to describe a point where two systems meet and interact. When using the expression ubiquitous computing this refers to human-computer interaction much the same as ‘the internet of things’.

‘Machines are the extensions of human senses’ (McLuhan, 1995). McLuhan’s explanation of media from his reflection was broad. He believed that these technological expansions had the effect of increasing a particular human sense. Consequently technology interfered with the balance of individuals, which then affected the awareness of societies in the way that they lived. These machines allowed individuals to extend beyond the limits of human flesh, impacting the subliminal cause of major cultural changes, that characterised different periods in human history, such as ‘the industrial age’ and ‘the digital age’. Throughout the digital age, also known as the information and computer age, users achieved the capability to transmit information immediately, and gained immediate access to information that would have been problematic previously. The phenomenon is that the digital industry creates a knowledge based society surrounded by a technical global economy that influences how the manufacturing and service sector operate in an efficient and convenient way. The human race has become so reliant upon machines and this has altered the way users senses respond.

The progression in technology led to users having a vast amounts of information, storage and transmission, although the impact to economics such as jobs and income distribution, increased opportunity in developing countries, and globalisation of the workforce. Despite the effectiveness of the increase in technology and machines, this led to automation and job loss. This was the rise of the information intensive industry becoming less labour intensive.

While no one can foresee for certain what the World Wide Web (WWW) holds in its future, there are many indicators and trends that can point users in a positive direction. Technologies are ready for further improvement within the approaching few years. Social media and applications (apps) are unquestionably going to be at the centre of the Web for a very long time. However, there is a great deal of other technologies on the verge of becoming widespread, either because of more social approval or because of the vast advancements in technology.

The research methodology adopted for this project will include the research paradigm selected, including a brief history of the Web and the Internet, the difference between the Web and the Internet, a discussion of the use of the internet in Northern Europe verses the United States of America and how it’s affecting them, the scenarios and predictions of how future interaction with the Web could change the way humans think or even change individuals practices, on a day to day basis. The research topic of ‘how users interact with the world wide Web and its possible future usability’ has been chosen due to my interest in future Web developments and my future career aspirations. The steps which will be followed in order to collect, analyse and interpret data will be researched from various sources and theorists.

A Brief History of the World Wide Web

The World Wide Web (WWW) most commonly known as the Web is a structure of interlinked hypertext documents accessed by means of using the Internet. However, the Web is not to be confused with the Internet, which is a worldwide structure of interconnected computer networks. Currently, the Web is a growing creation of Web pages and apps, along with videos, photos and interactive content. At present, users are able to interact and collaborate with each other socially and are partakers of user generated content within a virtual community, creating a participatory culture.

The term participatory culture is used to define the contributors or producers, such as the public whom not only act as consumers within the online environment, yet are also generating content and contributing to the internet by means of publishing media. This new culture of the online environment had been defined as Web 2.0.

Web design is still a recent creation. Originally Web design wasn’t about visual presentation but the ability to share information globally. The technical foundations for Web design were created in the late eighties and early nineties when the Hypertext Mark-up Language (HTML) was invented. When Tim Berners-Lee developed the World Wide Web he described it as ‘just another programme’ (Burners-Lee, 1990) The first Website was uploaded on the 6th August 1991 on the address of info.cern.ch, as displayed in figure 1.

Figure 1 – The First Website (1991)

Figure 1 shows that the very first Website created in 1991 was relatively simple in terms of design, demonstrating the basics of a fundamental Website. However after years of development, the appeal to expand content in an improved way pushed technology forward. Five years later in 1996, designers desired more tools and fewer obstacles when designing for the Web. This led to the invention of Cascading Style Sheets (CSS) level 1, a simple way for designers to style the content in a HTML file. Finally a language for presentation on the web, allowing designers to use and experiment with vibrant colours, animated Graphic Interchange Format (GIF) images and default system fonts. Ultimately, design became the important element on the Web and Web Design was born. At the time design was inconsistent, due to being based on a new platform without guidelines for designers to work with, unlike today where Web Designers are familiar with the use of grid systems, colour palettes, alignment and proximity.

In 2002, Flash games gained popularity and designers could create what they wanted to on the web. Advancing in the use of technology platforms and devices in 2010 Responsive Web Design was born, allowing Web Designers to adapt content suitable for display at all resolution sizes. A year later in 2011 Flash was dead and HTML5 and CSS3 designers no longer had the use for Flash to create and display animations on the web.

Implications of the Web

As internet use increases, this impacts the appliance of worldwide laws effecting private rights, confidentiality, trade secrets, unfair competition, copyright, protection of databases, moral rights, restricted internet usage and internet censorship, just to name a few. This can create international implications dealing with the power of local governments and the effects of behaviour throughout individuals, thus creating inequality and the digital divide. The digital divide is a term used meaning separation between those who have equipped access to computers and the internet, and those who do not. This divide is not only based upon geographic location but on race, gender, educational attainment and income.

Who’s Online, Who’s Left Behind, Globalisation

The digital world continues to influence the growth and development of economy, education, and social networking, with a number of trends emerging in these sectors. In today’s environment there are multiple devices and platforms that have access to the Web. The dependence on these devices and technologies, means increased reliance on instant Internet access.

In many ways the Web is beneficial for people’s lives and the way people work. However, the mass increase of users active on the Internet for multiple hours of the day around the world cannot be beneficial for health. It is not surprising that health experts are concerned about individual’s interaction and use with the Internet. This can be proved by acknowledging the online presence, as shown in figure 2.

In June 2012, Internet World Statistics analysed the usage and population statistics of the top twenty countries using the Internet, as seen in the pie chart displayed in figure 2, 73.8% of the most populated and advanced countries in the world have access and live users on the Internet. This is such a substantial figure, leaving just 26.2% of the rest of the world’s countries without access to the Internet. Effectively, leaving countries without access or use to the internet behind and removed from the opportunity to benefit, leaving the digital divide to grow greater each day.

Figure 2

From 0.2% of Internet users in 1990, to a staggering rise of 81.46% Internet users in 2011, South Korea has the largest Internet users as a percentage of population. South Korea is the most connected nation and most digitally enhanced country in the world. ‘62% of three to five year olds use the Web eight hours per week’ (Krotoski, 2010) which is double the time of British three to five year olds. This has left society apprehensive of adolescents growing up throughout life online, distorting their sense of reality. It’s approximated that adolescents will spend 10,000 hours online before they even reach adulthood and if Facebook, the social networking Website, was a country, it would be the third largest in the world.

Connectivity is not only measured on the amount of hours spent online but also bandwidth. Bandwidth is a term used for the amount of data that passes through an internet connection, divided into uploads and downloads. Streaming video content is the most common high bandwidth activity, such as Skype, software which is uploading and downloading video and audio content simultaneously.

‘UK internet users spend 240 million hours every month watching online video content’ (ETC, 2013). While ‘internet addiction disorder’ is still difficult to define at this time, fundamentally anyone with access to the internet can become reliant on it despite gender or age. The internet, mobile technologies and devices present a range of alluring applications to all users, with its twenty-four seven connection offering endless entertainment and stimulation adding to the appeal. Offering the opportunity to become anonymous and gain freedom to escape from inhibitions and reality becoming an environment where users can experience an increased sense of intimacy.

South Korea has grown to be the world leader in Internet connectivity and speed. ‘South Korea recorded a 47.9 Megabytes per second, being their peak connection speed in 2011, and Japan saw a peak of 33.8 Megabytes per second’ (Pingdom, 2012). Although South Korea may have acquired the fastest Internet speed in the World, with the highest usage rates, their government has inflicted constraints on the freedom of online speech, in comparison to most other democratic countries. The extensive range of information blocked including, election related discussions about North Korea, are filtered and censored. South Korea may symbolise the future of the Internet, by representing a society that is both highly technically advanced and closely monitored.

Figure 3 shows China as the country with the highest number of Internet users. In the year 2000, China had 22,500,000 Internet users. which was 22.4% of users worldwide. By comparison, Egypt had 450,000 Internet users, being only 1.2% of world users. It is significant to see the global impact of the use of the Internet in contrast to the country’s population.

Figure 3

The Virtual Revolution

In a recent documentary titled ‘The Virtual Revolution’ presented by Dr Aleks Krotoski who draws attention to how the Web is transforming every aspect of people’s lives and looks at the status of social networks and how they are changing people’s relationships. It’s been twenty years since the Web was created, enabling users to gain unlimited access to information. However, as a human race it is important to understand and analyse the impact that this has on an individual’s psychology, and the effect and consequences on relationships.

Adolescents ‘spend an average of thirty one hours online’ (Telegraph, 2009). For many adolescents it is not a matter of choice, but a matter of ‘need’ to use the Web, particularly if they do not want to linger behind the rest of society. Along with the use of e-mailing, instant messaging, downloading music, gaming and updating Facebook pages, the use of the Internet also creates vulnerability to the dangers of ‘cyber bullies’, sexual predators, and online scams that jeopardise unsuspecting users.

Though Internet addiction is not yet a bona fide psychiatric diagnosis, psychiatrists and psychologists are calling for more research, so they can include it in future editions of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manuel. (Martin PhD, 2010)

In older adolescents aged eighteen to twenty five, generally their Web use is often related to sex, pornography, gambling, eating disorders, drug problems, depression or anxiety. ‘In 2010, out of the million most popular (most trafficked) Websites in the world, 42,337 were sex-related sites. That’s about 4% of sites.’ (Forbes, 2011) Others might spend hours playing online poker, shopping, and potentially becoming gradually more single minded and isolated. Many specialists believe that limiting computer time and access is important. Alongside the internet as the Web expands and becomes more widely used for games and apps, it is essential for future generations to limit time and access to the Internet throughout education and home life. While enjoying it as a luxury, educational or a development tool, it is imperative not to rely on it, which many commentators fear may happen.

The Next 5,000 Days of the Web

On Monday the 10th of December 2012 there were 2,241,692,410 Internet users in the world, 264,688,876,030 E-mail messages sent, 563,278 Blog posts posted, and 2,825,406,285 Google searches (Real Time Statistics, 2012) The estimation of the figure of new connections added to the Internet, is approximately six per second, and the figure of emails sent each day includes spam. However, these statistics are so large even though ‘The Web is only less than 5,000 days old’ (Kelly, 2007). The progress and expansion which the Web has made has been exceptional. There is rapid development of components and new technologies entering individuals lives. Technologies that are being produced presently include laptops that also act as a tablet device, and applications that enable users to speak to a mobile phone where the mobile phone will answer with a response, will inevitably further increase potential.

As Kelly further describes in his ‘the next 5,000 days of the Web’ lecture, fifteen years ago, even Wired (future science, culture and technology news) was describing it as ‘TV but better’ (Kelly, 2007). That was the model at that point in time and researchers were suggesting was to come. However, they did not realise its full potential. He mentions his curiosity of how of everything that had occurred in the previous 5,000 days, it is intriguing to see what will happen in the next 5,000 days. Kelly goes on to suggest that all computers, hand held devices, mobile phones, laptops and servers are all fully functional throughout using connections. However, all of these connections are accessible from the ‘one’ machine. In perspective, is there was a single ‘one’ machine, all devices are just ‘little windows’ into that machine, from users constructing a single global machine. While this machine happens to be the most consistent machine humans have ever made. As a whole it has not ‘crashed’ and has been running uninterrupted, though naturally individual devices and Internet connections have failed.

Nevertheless, this ‘one’ machine has not and there is almost no other machine humans have ever made that has run continuously over 5,000 days without interruption. Evidently the Internet is longer than 5,000 days old but the Web is only 5,000 days old. To put all this into perspective the measurements and dimensions of this machine are as follows; ‘all around the globe on all the computers, there are a hundred billion clicks per day, and there’s 55 trillion links, between all the Web pages of the world’ (Kelly, 2007).

Kelly goes on to discuss the stage in which the Web is currently at, the linking of data, where users are contributing to the creation of data and pages of information located on the Web, for access for other users. To do this users are going from machine to machine via use of the Internet, navigating through pages and data. The difference is that rather than linking from a page, users are in fact going to link from one idea within a page to an additional idea, instead of locating to another page on the Web. Therefore, every idea within the page will be supported by an item. Every item will be supported by the Web, at the level of items, ideas or words. These components will be virtual and will be compiled from a user’s Web presence to create a unique ID or profile. Therefore, every person and every item will link to a specific virtual representation of that idea or item. What Kelly is suggesting is that, the Web could ultimately be able to read ‘itself’ to know that each word will have a specific meaning in terms of representation. With a more virtual, whole and ‘together as one’ Web, it seems to be becoming more lifelike every day.

Kelly demonstrates some interesting points about the Internet as a machine with ‘windows’ in every device. Nevertheless, it is also daunting and could this be the next step to paranoia for users wanting to isolate themselves and their data. Although Kelly discusses that a personal ID for every human is disturbing, it has already started with Adware and some of the functionality of Google. At the present time of the Web with drastically increasing popularity of social networks and sharing data, this ‘one’ machine is learning more and more about everyone.

‘This is a huge machine. It uses 5% of global electricity on the planet’ (Kelly, 2007). Therefore, as a human race the impact of the rate in which the planet is being ‘destroyed’ in order to power our devices, is outstanding. However, in the future there could be a different way to power all of these devices. Solar powering systems have already be incorporated in some mobile phones, where if you leave your mobile device in the sunlight for the specified hours this will charge your phone’s battery. Could this be the way forward for technologies and devices, in which ways are invented which are more economical and environmentally friendly. In the coming years, devices and technologies will gain more power than before whilst consuming less power themselves.

Obtaining energy from ambient radio waves will become increasingly common as will the use of more biological principles to generate energy that can power devices, emulating the human body. (Mitchener, 2012)

With the rate at which technologies are progressing and new and improved devices being released everyday, these advanced technologies will become a common factor within people lives.

(Take some points out above here)

As both cases from Krotoski and Kelly agree that the web is continuously expanding, is this benefiting users by developing an online database such as ‘the internet of things’ as Kelly describes, or is this making the web harder to escape from which could be affecting users health such as Krotoski argues.

In comparison, the advantages for an online world such as ‘the internet of things’ can give users more free time, by managing possessions while commuting for example. A scenario could be to remotely manage home appliances from devices whilst commuting. Allowing users to step into a cyber world could also decrease stress levels in many.

In order for users to take control of future technology, users must be self disciplined in managing their ‘screen time’ with social and health activities to create a balanced lifestyle. This is an important issue, as presently users have become too reliant upon technology devices, although benefiting entertainment, education and job expansion, the future will always develop the expansion of technology creating the reliability on devices even more so, as discussed by Kelly through the use of ‘the internet of things’.

The availability of ‘the internet of things’ can be compared to the increase of cheaper and more available food in the developed world during the last 60 years. This has seen an increase in obesity in the developed world, such as in the United States of America (US) and Britain. There is visible evidence that given the access to cheaper food that many people find self discipline difficult to control. There is already commentary that Internet usage is following the same path.

It was only ten years ago that the only way to access the internet was via a PC through work, home, educational establishments or libraries and the cost of personal computers was an expensive outlay. Now first entry to the Internet can be via a mobile phone, a much cheaper outlay for individuals, and will realise the potential growth areas around the world.

Internet usage growth in mobile web penetration is strongest in Asia and Africa, where PC penetration is lower. As you can see by figure 4, the percentage of internet mobile web users who never or infrequently access the web through a desktop computer is phenomenal. For example 70% of users located in Egypt access the web through mobile access only. Compared to the developed world countries such as the US where there is only 25% of mobile access to the web. This is an interesting comparison and mobile access only, is sure to increase. The ‘Arab spring’, was a revolutionary way of demonstrating and protesting through using social media and is a good example where rapid information exchange through mobile devices shows how the future will look.

Figure 4

‘By 2020, employment in all computer occupations is expected to increase by 22%’ (Thibodeau, 2013) Based on the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics the constant expansion of the web is leading to many new job roles and is increasing educational courses to help this expansion. This entails a large growth in programming jobs and expansion of healthcare through information technology, while mobile networks will see an increasing demand for software developers, technicians and system analysts. ‘The demand for database administrators is expected to increase by 31%’ (Thibodeau, 2013). relating back to Kelly’s theory of the ‘internet of things’ the expansion of database administrations expected to expand, logically fits. There will be a demand for systems and applications in high-growth markets like China and India.

Nevertheless, the constant accessibility of worldwide users may be an advantage to many, but could leave users unable to disconnect from the online world, boosting ‘screen time’ and increasing web usability as Krotoski argued. The ‘free time’ that users gained from productivity before internet access devices will be lost to constant access to web entertainment and user response. Although, as previously identified it is somewhat difficult to define if ‘internet addiction’ is an affecting illness, the potential for affecting users mental and physical health exists.

The Future of the Internet and How to Stop It

Originally, both the internet and the personal computer (PC) were built unfinished, letting the users figure out what to do with them and to deal with problems as they arose. This then created the ability to add information to the web for all users ‘experienced’ and ‘un-experienced’ due to social networking sites such as Wikipedia. ‘It is not easy to imagine the PC going extinct’ (Zittrain, 2005). As Zittrain states eight years ago now, it was hard to imagine life without the PC at the time. Currently home PC’s are decreasing due to the rapid increase in mobile, tablet and other technology devices used to access the web.

‘The internet is destined for a 9/11 event’ (Zittrain, 2005). As Zittrain states, that within the near future the internet may be destined for a fatally disruptive event that threatens the basic reliability of the internet. Although, this could strengthen the very best of the internet, and the potential the network offers. This may impact the way law and technologies need to interact, for example referring back to Krotoski’s theory of managing users ‘screen time’ to lower a possible increase of potential health threats that may perhaps in future become a law placed into practice. However, presently such laws on pornography, spam and viruses have somewhat been ‘ignored’ and it is has become an ever-growing issue. However, in future will such laws be welcomed? It was not inevitable that the internet would become one global network where the same rules applied to everyone, everywhere. The internet is too important for governments to ignore, and they are increasingly finding new ways to enforce their law throughout the digital world, such as China’s ‘great firewall’ where authorities are using the same technology that companies use to prevent employees accessing particular websites and online services. This is why at first, Google decided to censor its Chinese search engine, as before there was no other way to obtain information widely accessible in the country. These geographical impacting internet ‘freedom’ laws, relate to Zittrain’s concerns, due to the factors that if internet security worsens, there will become a fear of lockdown, surveillance and control.

Here Comes Everybody

Shirky discusses challenges on how ‘we’ as users make things happen, and participate amongst the web, creating movements, and defining friends. The study of defining online and reality friends has become somewhat significant within the ‘digital revolution’, where most users compare their five close friends in ‘real-life’ to the hundreds of virtual friends online. Physiologically technology has allured users to converse through virtual interaction through the use of social networking sites, gaming and real time video software to name a few. This has become a huge advantage to many allowing users to stay in touch worldwide, although has this become somewhat overwhelming for users leaving a sense of reality behind. It portrays an interesting argument for the way the future of not only the web yet technology is moving forward, as the French critic and writer once said ‘the more things change, the more they remain the same’ (Karr, 1849).

Whilst looking at the availability of technology Shirky argues that existing businesses, non-profit and government are greatly threatened. However, he does admit that society is not ‘heading into some sort of post-hierarchical paradise’ (Shirky, 2008). Due to the rise of the ‘amateur’ through wiki and open source technologies this is creating more user generated content defining social media as a whole. This allows lower transaction costs creating the ability to share and to co-operate with each other continuously. Shirky finds that the amount of voluntary written sources located on Wikipedia somewhat fascinating, which he describes as a ‘bureaucracy’ environment. Nevertheless, he also argues that this occurred only after Wikipedia established itself as a non-profit information based website where its contributors then joined.

Zittrain and Shirky both make valid points about the future of governments being threatened by over use of the web. However, Zittrain who co-founded the Berkman Center for Internet and Society, does not clarify potential solutions for ‘the future of the internet’, as an alternative he discusses the probability of a closed-network society that reduces freedom for users and ruthless security. This could affect the way user generated content is accessible or even optional to generate for future web users, relating back to Shirky’s points on the importance, potential and expansion which user generated content has contributed to the web.

Delete - The Virtue of Forgetting in the Digital Age

In comparison, Schönberger discusses the points of deleting ‘memory’ from the internet where he reveals interesting discussion points of how the human race is simply willing to hold onto every memory captured in the digital age.

We have tried to remember, to preserve our knowledge, to hold on to our memories and we have devised numerous devices and mechanisms to aid us. Yet through millennia, forgetting has remained just a bit easier and cheaper than remembering. (Schönberger, 2009)

Today, humanity has access to such an extensive range of technology devices that it is impossible to miss anything, the ability to capture photos and video content to capture every moment has become one of the great advantages of technology. The digital revolution has made these factors far easier to keep and hold on to with the use of cheap storage and hard disks, storing everything whether we want to remember or not.

‘Google knows more about us than we can remember ourselves’ (Schönberger, 2009). He argues that not being able to leave our past behind is what makes us human, the digital age is just helping users along. He also worries that this ‘perfect memory’ will make users self censored, making users act as if they are being watched. For example, many potential employees will ‘clean-up’ their Facebook account before attending an interview with a business or organisation as it is almost unavoidable for employers to immediately search for you and your background on Google, in order that they know who you are before you even get there. This leaves users to think carefully about their ‘digital footprints’.

You Are Not a Gadget

Jaron Lanier a researcher for Microsoft, discusses the impact that social networking websites such as Facebook and Twitter with their addiction to user procrastination combine with unfiltered user content to some extent. Along with Wikipedia, file sharing and ‘citizen journalism’ he discusses his points on how America could be divulging in ‘computer cloud overloads’ by trafficking websites for advertisement sales, and ‘digital serfs’ who are uploading content for free. Lanier goes on to discuss that if the copying and distribution of content was made impossible for users to access and gain illegally downloaded content such as mp3 files and digital book free downloads, by disregarding copyright laws and refraining authors from being paid for their own content. Along, with this outsourcing manufacturing goods to China and help desks to India is a creating a substantial affect on job loss in the United States and United Kingdom.

‘I fear that we are beginning to design ourselves to suit digital models of us, and I worry about a leaching of empathy and humanity in that process’ (Lanier, 2011). He goes on to discuss how as users with constant access to the web and a virtual reality how it is changing the way humanity thinks, how social networking websites are affecting users mentality and attention by how many ‘likes’ that they may receive from other online users, and how users may simply be perfecting a digital model of themselves in comparison to real life. Lanier portrays some interesting arguments how we as users have become not only mentally and physically reliant upon the web, and how we as users are forming our own future of the web.

Future of the Internet – Scenarios

The internet has changed the world, empowering individuals and organisations, allowing individuals to work together. The underlying question of what the future of the internet will be, has become a topic of discussion more popular and revealing every day. The following four scenarios suggested by Internet Society, a large organisation ensuring that the internet stays open and transparent, leading in internet policy, technology standards, while serving the economic social and educational needs. These presented scenarios are not intended to be definitive, but provide possibilities for future development of the internet.

The ‘common pool scenario’ suggests that in the future users will be provided with applications on mobile phones with user community access to open source, collaborative, free available fixes adopting solution to create a new internet. One example will be to create an application where the users report the news through a global teleconferencing platform. Using real time high definition (HD) video to connect users through their ‘netpads’ creating a global news system, allowing users to report to other users about whatever interest them most. At this point users don’t want media made by experts. This way users tell users what they like and can access only what they want to see and hear. The competition is global, much like YouTube is now through accessing the most video content by the use of ‘hits’ or ‘likes’. In this scenario users will be able to interact with the application by adding annotations and animations real time as the news is happening, creating a new world of news. This scenario somewhat links back to what Shirky has said on the importance of user generated content and sharing of information between users.

Another suggested scenario, referred to as the ‘boutique networks scenario’ consists of a viper leading global teleconferencing platform used every day to contact clients from all over the world and to keep in contact with family and friends, always accessible wherever the user is, such as Skype. Although, the internet once known and loved become’s the ‘boutique network scenario’ where unique internet addresses have become a rare commodity. There are too many people, in too many places that all want to join in the conversation. Leading governments and service providers could take matters into their own hands, transforming the internet into many independent intranets. These intranets are regionally based and account complex payment schemes. This creates a great impact and the internet dies, vipar stops working and there is no chance for a global communication platform. Speaking face to face has become expensive and it feels like the user has gone back in time. This scenario relates back to the ‘China firewall’ where users have already restricted to access to certain content.

As suggested by Internet Society the ‘moats and drawbridges scenario’ is a time where networks become centralised, nationalised, regulated and controlled. The global open internet is replaced by many separate not very well connected, connections of networks. This creates an impact where businesses can no longer reach their audiences. Large corporations lean on governments to create policies that restrict access to non-national content, this creates fears of cyber security and could make distributors unwilling to connect to user networks. Creating the point where users cannot access any of their favourite websites, as the internet is controlled by corporations, forced to sell distribution rights for user content to the biggest media distributor. This means users lose their creative control and corporations decide what information goes where, to who and for how much. As discussed by Zittrain, this is a potentially disturbing factor in which way the internet could be heading.

Finally, the ‘porous garden scenario’ refers to a smart gadget note pad, used for entertainment purposes and which users can also use to run a business with, using open internet. This relies on the use of a smart gadget only to run all applications and disengaging from this could become too costly for users. Users become tied to the use of specific networks and associated information appliances, where there is control over content, pricing, licensing, and other concerns that would be firmly in the hands of large commercial organisations. This enforces obliged consumers to purchase multiple appliances and associated subscriptions to access the full range of the network. Again, this scenario somewhat links back to Zittrain’s discussion points on the potential lack of access and restriction of networks that could impact the future use of the internet for users.

Future Web Design Trends

The current trends in 2013 which are expected to exceed and grow are discussed by David Sachs, a user experience expert at Ci&T. Firstly, responsive and adaptive design is set to continue, with many businesses and organisations’ adapting their existing online websites to be suitable for display on a range of devices. It is an essential tool and with the rapid increase in devices responsive design will be needed for future friendly products. Along with the use of mobile devices this is increasingly important due to the expansion of mobile web access only through countries such as Egypt. The increase in user centric design concepts, where it is important for web designers to not only design the right website for the client but the user through means of technical and visual aspects and use of coding facilities such as HTML5 and CSS3, the web is becoming more animated based without the use of Flash content. This is still being mastered by many web designers and is due to rapidly increase future web design content. Alongside the use of parallax scrolling, combing the use of jQuery and spritesheets for many websites, this will be encountered on even more websites and mobile website in the near future.

Futuristic Glass

In 2011, Corning Incorporated shared a revolutionary model which aims to integrate the capabilities of online services. Currently, web users access the web globally and continuously, this enables users to access their mobility for a number of useful applications. This innovative technology combines the access and mobility to the web that we currently use, combined with ‘futuristic glass’ for instance, to provide assistance in a city guide, translate texts, look up data in encyclopaedia or even information about an object by simply pointing at it. As shown in Figure 5 this futuristic concept may be possible to become reality in the near future. This idea can potentially be moved forward benefiting educational, health and entertainment purposes, adapting the web to a whole other realm of reality and interface design.

Figure 5 – ‘Futuristic Glass’

Google Glasses

Google are also developing their own innovation by working on a way to search for information, read text messages, watch online video contents and post photos all without having to use a hand held device, thus the ‘Google glasses’, creating a wearable computer for each user, as shown in figure 6. ‘If all goes well, a less expensive version of the glasses is expected to go on sale for consumers in early 2014’ (Google, 2012). It’s estimated that the device will cost more than smart phones and is seen as a ‘premium’ market luxury. In comparison, if we’re going to see products such as ‘futuristic glass’ and ‘Google glasses’ in the near future then this is going to have a larger impact on the expansion of technology and device, not only moving forward in the future yet changing the interaction of interface design and the way web designers create.

Figure 6 – ‘Google Glasses’

Nanotechnology

‘Nanotechnology will reach a stage of maturity which permits tiny devices to be commonly deployed inside and outside the human body’ (Mitchener, 2012). Nanotechnology can be used to increase the ability of reducing weight and power consumption in electronic devices, these are called nanoelectronics. With the use of this technology it will improve display screens on electronic devices whilst increasing the density of memory chips, eventually enabling the power of a computer in the presence of the palm of your hand. Currently, this area of technology is under development although this may be something that will be used daily for future generations.

Astounding though it seems this is the way in which technology is moving forward, although it’s hard to say whether this is thrilling or daunting. If the human race has only become more ‘self obsessed’ and ‘lazy’ since the Web has been introduced it is intriguing to see what the future holds, for the better or the worse. It has also been stated that ‘40% of people never visit the same Web page again’ (Nicholas, 2009) this proves as a human race how ‘lazy’ individuals have become with the lack of importance and regards to ‘throw away’ information. An average user will stay on a Website for no longer than three seconds, having not found the information or data needed.

How the Web Is Changing (4.0)

Change can be viewed for the better or worse, however, the Web is something that has been progressively becoming more different every day, with the constant updates of Social Networking websites to perpetually being connected. This element of technology has pulled us all together to create a twenty-four seven world through the use of endless accessibility via PC, laptop, tablets, mobiles, and cars.

One aspect that seems certain, is that data transmission speeds will increase globally, and the costs of producing ultra-high-speed networks will decrease. Eventually, the average consumer will be able to download a high-definition movie in a second or play cloud-based video games without any lag.

Ubiquitous computing is going to become significant within the near future, as Kelly describe the ‘internet of things’, combining the use of human and computer interaction where information processing will be integrated into everyday object and activities. Along with the expansion of cloud computing using network and remote servers hosted on the internet to store and process data.

Targeted Searching

Many users, when searching on the internet, are vague about what they are searching for and often look at too many and often irrelevant pages. Google for example offers an ‘advanced search’ option which people hardly use. This enables users to conduct a Boolean search and users are able to target results more specifically. A Boolean search enables users to search for an exact word or phrase, languages, region, for example pages generated in the United Kingdom or time frame, restricting results to when pages were last updated. These are a few of the advanced search options, which if many Web users commonly practiced, would save time searching and more time gaining relevant information.

Gander

A recent gadget that has been uncovered in the technology and gadget department is stimulating news for the future of the way the Web will be working and the way users will interact with it. Imagine being able to know how many customers are in any one coffee shop at any time and how long it would take to get served, or being confident that there will be a seat on the next bus or train when it arrives, all just by simply glancing at your smartphone. ‘Gander’ is a search engine that aims to make all of this and more possible, by letting users search their physical world in the same way that users are currently searching web pages on the Internet.

‘In the simplest terms, Gander is a distributed search engine for the mobile networks of the future’ (Michel, 2012) Jonas Michel who is a PhD student at the University of Texas and one of the project's co-founders, explains that the development of ‘Gander’ is to some degree due to the increasing ability consumers have to search their physical surroundings by means of using their smartphone.

‘Gander’ is an allocated search engine for mobile network environments personified by large quantities of short-lived data, also referred to as emerging types of environments such as Personalized Networked Spaces (PNetS). PNetS consist of digital devices, both mobile and embedded in the environment (e.g. smart phones, sensors, RFID tags) connected by a dynamic network, the Internet. Large volumes of data stimulate the need for expressive search mechanisms that efficiently identify and provide access to information relevant to users’ needs.

‘The internet of things is a big buzzword right now. It envisions this concept of putting everything online and this concept is really exploding to the point where even your dog or your cat or your shoes... Everything could be accessible digitally in some way’ (Michel, 2012). This application development aims to address research and software engineering challenges that arise from the new requirements in this emerging search space. As revolutionary as this may already be, with the growing move towards the ‘internet of things' everything is about to get a lot more revolutionary. Already, there have been location based services available on mobile phones enabling users to look up nearby restaurants, friends and ‘check in’ at any place or point around the world. Like the modern internet, without some means of searching for and finding information, all of these things in the physical world may be online but they will exist in isolation.

The motivation for ‘Gander’ is that when in the future, if physical spaces are accessible in the same way of use as today’s Internet, then digitally either through computers or through mobile phones users will be able to search spaces and places for relevant and specific information as they are going about their daily lives.

‘Gander’ is said to be going into Beta testing mode in the next coming weeks, and is currently restricted to the University of Texas campus. It consists of sensors that measure movement and sound, a mobile application, the software, algorithms and mathematics that make the whole project possible. The project has even been funded by Google who have shown major interest in the application. However, it has already taken ‘Gander’ two years to get the project to this point. Although, it is predicted that technology like Gander will exist within consumer space within ten years.

(Take some information out from above here)

How does this affect the future of the way the web works?

If ‘Gander’ or similar software arrives in the near future then consumers will be able to use the application in various scenarios such as at a music festival to calculate how many people are queuing for toilets, or how many people are at a stage at any one time. Another example could be using the application at a theme park, where the user will be able to search the environment around them to see how many people are in the queue for a certain ride, not just the estimated time for queuing as experienced in today’s environments.

This will change the future and the way the Web works entirely, by revolving around people and ‘things’ as well as the difference in opinions if and when the Gander project goes live with the public. Again, some users might be intrigued and enticed by the application, whereas, others may see it as a threat. They would not want the application to be finding out information about themselves, or their location to be exposed and will consider it as an invasion of privacy.

What could affect the future of web design?

Not only does this change the way users think and interact with the Web but it will change the Web’s whole design. If an application such as ‘Gander’ was to become part of a daily routine for internet users, any worldwide user would be able to access information on the presence and location on everyone in the world. Universal access to this kind and volume of data on numerous devices could become information overload. However, along with new software and applications there will always be a change in technology. Therefore, this could mean a mathematically expanded version of coding for all Web Designers to learn leaving HTML5 and CSS3 a software of the past, along with responsive Web design expanding to suit even more devices. Leaving the World Wide Web quite literally a place which speaks for itself.

Web 3.0 and the Upcoming Web 4.0

The Web 3.0 is the third generation of the World Wide Web development, and is familiarly referred to as the Semantic Web. Currently every user is functioning with the Semantic Web daily, through the use of tagging content and social networking creating a ‘Web of data’ which each individual is consistently contributing to the Web. This framework creates a Web of data that can be processed directly and indirectly by machines.

Humans are able to use the Web to carry out tasks such as searching for answers to questions, gathering information and sharing content. Although, machines cannot complete all of these tasks without any human direction or input, because Web pages are designed to be read by people not machines. However, the Semantic Web can be understood somewhat by machines, due to machines being able to carry out any of the tedious work involved in finding, combining and delegating information on the Web. The reason for this was to create a system that enables machines to ‘understand’ and respond to complex human tasks based on their meaning. This ‘understanding’ requires relevant information sources to be semantically structured. Therefore, the more users share and exchange information, the more open and creative the platform becomes, and the more useful it is.

This new generation of internet services and devices often referred to as social software can be leveraged to enrich web experience, as information is continually requested, consumed, and reinterpreted. The new environment features a highly connected digital network of practitioners medical or otherwise, where knowledge exchange, is not limited or controlled by private interests. The Semantic Web reunites users together in a more dynamic interactive space.

In analysis, looking back through my dissertation I will be referring in context to what theorists have discussed and comparing them to case studies, trends, similarities and differences. It is clear to see that there are a variety of possible scenarios in which the web may be heading, due to possible ‘lockdown’ or information overload. However, the expansion is intriguing with the current use of code such as HTML5 and CSS3 for web designers as this is pushing forward a new way of animated designing for the web, along with such features as parallax scrolling. This is something that is not going to disappear for some time yet although, with the rapid expansion of new interface designs and technologies such as ‘Google glasses’ and ‘futuristic glass’ this may see designers adapt in the same way as they did so for responsive design.

The ever expanding web could mean an increased need for cloud computing, especially with extra information that may be coming our way referring to Kelly’s theory of ‘the internet of things’ and with the development of ‘Gander’ this is close to becoming reality. Therefore, the expansion of remote servers for storage of data will need to increase, in able to host and cope with future technologies. However, with such expansion are we somewhat ‘doomed’ for a ‘9/11 internet event’ as Zittrain describes, it’s an interesting point especially when all this data and information is coming our way should we start preparing and making room for it now. After all, over the last five years the increase in storage space on hard drives and devices has rapidly expanded, although when introduced it was a expensive cost whereas now you can access 32 gigabytes of information within your mobile phone for a fraction of the cost. In comparison, the innovative way in which technology is moving forward is somewhat exciting, being able to access text and access video content through use of ‘Google glasses’ or holding a device up to a building to access information on it through via a ‘futuristic glass device’ enables us to potentially carry around our own personal scanning device. It seems that humanity not just ‘wants’ but ‘needs’ all of these devices crammed into one. I’m not saying this is a bad thing as such yet this will again impact on user ‘screen time’ as Krotoski discusses this could potentially be affecting our health. Not only will this affect the developed world, countries such as Egypt which are accessing the web by mobile access only could mean that new and existing users who are extending hours on the web is possible through access to cheaper devices. The potential growth is very high.

Of course everyone wonders what the future holds, it’s in our nature. Since the development of computing and technology, in the commercial and non-commercial worlds, computing and applications have evolved by technical and non-technical users by testing new solutions or new ideas. This contribution will not change on the web, where everyday activities will also be part of this expansion. This new and expanding user community will undoubtedly bring untapped ideas and ways of interacting.

In conclusion, the current and future new technologies that have not only changed the way the web works in the last five years through social and commercial purposes will also have a large impact on the future new technologies to come. There are many outcomes in which the internet may take, for example as discussed by Zittrain and Internet Society, the many scenarios that could end the freedom of access, the lockdown of security, the overruling of power, to name a few disadvantages. On the other hand, if we as users are fortunate enough to see the everlasting expansion of the internet, we may be able to experience real time video content news with the ability to interact with each user. This will create a whole other world of social networking for us. Technology will always be continually advancing, however, it seems the web has to catch up. The expansion of varied devices led to responsive design, with technology such as ‘Google glasses’ will this mean more work for web designers. As I personally aspire to become a professional web designer, it is exciting the way the web and technology are expanding, however at such a rapid pace this doesn’t all seem possible. With Google estimating the release of ‘Google glasses’ in early 2014, most web designers haven’t even mastered HTML5 and CSS3 yet, creating an exciting new form of animated websites. From the research conducted for the next five years, I expect to see HTML5 and CSS3 aspects within all websites including social networking, creating an interactive environment for the user through use of animation, along with the expansion of social networking websites of course. As a web designer it is obvious that the web will constantly be changing and there will always be new things to learn, but this is what makes it exciting after all. After all, this entire dissertation will be past its ‘sell by date’ in the next five years.