Madagascars Ongoing Political Crisis

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

government closed Viva TV, a television station owned by Mayor Rajoelina, after it aired an

interview with former President Ratsiraka. The government asserted that the speech threatened to

"disturb public order and security," while critics viewed the move as a sign of increasing

intolerance by the Ravalomanana government of opposition-friendly media and as an effort to

curtail Rajoelina’s influence.31 After the closure, Rajoelina issued an ultimatum, demanding, in

the interest of press freedom and democracy, that the government allow the reopening of Viva TV

and other stations by January 13

In mid-January 2009, Rajoelina initiated what grew into a wave of public anti-government

demonstrations Antananarivo.33 The anti-government protests—which were also spurred by

dissatisfaction over economic conditions, allegations of government corruption, accusations of

state restrictions of freedom of expression, and of unilateral TIM political dominance—swelled in

size over subsequent days. Rajoelina labeled Ravalomanana a dictator and called for further antigovernment strikes, which duly ensued, closing down much of the capital. In late January, the

protests turned violent, as elements of the crowds rioted and looted. The state radio building was

ransacked and set alight; arsonists targeted a Ravalomanana-owned radio station, where guards

shot a protester, warehouses of one of his companies, and other private businesses. Reports in the

following days suggested that 70-80 persons had died during the unrest, most due to crowd

stampedes and arson, which the government labeled a "civil disturbance which is akin to an

attempted coup."34

At the end of January, Rajoelina, backed by a group of opposition parties, again called for

Ravalomanana ouster and the establishment of a two-year democratic transition that he would

lead. The next day Rajoelina—who had not yet attained the age of 40, the constitutionally

required for presidents—declared that he was taking control of state power as the head of a

national transitional government, which he said would be established legally through a

parliamentary request for Ravalomanana's resignation. In subsequent days he kept up demands

seeking that end, along with claims that he was doing so legally

On February 3, 2009, Ravalomanana removed Rajoelina from his mayoral office.37 Rajoelina

continued to demand the President’s ouster, calling for his impeachment and arrest and the

establishment of a transitional government. While protests waned over the next several days, on

February 7, the presidential guard fatally shot approximately 30 protesters who were marching on

the presidential palace and wounded many more, prompting the defense minister to resign in

protest. She was immediately replaced by the military chief of staff. In subsequent days,

Ravalomanana supporters engaged in pro-government demonstrations, while Rajoelina supporters

massed in support of their cause. Talks between the two sides were initiated in mid-February, but

broke off weeks later. They were followed by anti-government protests, some of which were

suppressed by security forces, resulting in several fatalities. In early March, the government

unsuccessfully attempted to arrest Rajoelina, who sought refuge at the French embassy.

The Military Takes Sides

Madagascar’s military has historically maintained its neutrality during political confrontations.

During rise in tensions between Ravalomanana and Rajoelina, the armed forces repeatedly

pledged to protect the civilian population and maintain the rule of law. In early March 2009,

however, after the military was used by the government to suppress protests, in some cases

resulting in fatalities, warned that they might take power if the two opposed sides did not resolve

their differences. Subsequently, however, key military leaders appeared increasingly to lean

toward supporting Rajoelina.

Political tensions on the island continued, punctuated by sporadic demonstrations.39 On several

occasions, security forces reportedly used tear gas to disperse protestors, and several

demonstrators were reportedly killed or injured. Some reports suggest that elements of the

military demanded Rajoelina’s resignation early in his tenure and continue to oppose the

transitional authority.40 In April 2010, the minister of the armed forces was fired amid rumors of a

possible coup. In May 2010, security forces loyal to Rajoelina suppressed a mutiny by a group of

gendarmerie. Rajoelina’s supporters suppressed another coup attempt in November 2010.

Envoys from the United Nations, the AU, and SADC, in concert with the influential Madagascar

Council of Christian Churches, made numerous attempts to mediate between Ravalomanana and

Rajoelina. Mediators first brought the two rivals together in February 2009, but Rajoelina refused

to participate in further talks until Ravalomanana officially stepped down. The AU condemned

the events of March 16 as an attempted coup d’état, and AU Commission Chairman Jean Ping

warned the Malagasy military against handing power to Rajoelina. 41 According to Madagascar’s

constitution, in the event of a presidential vacancy, the president of the Senate should assume the

office and hold new elections within two months, rather than the two years Rajoelina initially

proposed. The constitution also required the President to be at least 40 years of age; Rajoelina

was born in 1974.

On March 20, 2009, the AU Peace and Security Council, citing an unconstitutional change of

government, announced its decision to suspend Madagascar from participation in AU activities.

Southern African leaders then suspended the country from SADC. In late April, the AU, SADC,

the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the Organisation internationale

de la Francophonie (OIF), the permanent members of the UN Security Council, the EU, and other

interested governments formed an International Contact Group on Madagascar (ICG-M) to

provide a unified front for international pressure on the parties to resolve the political crisis.

The U.S. State Department declared the power transfer to be a coup d’état. EU officials took a

similar stance. Foreign envoys did not attend Rajoelina’s inauguration, and only a few foreign

governments have recognized his administration. The United States has suspended all nonhumanitarian assistance, as have several other international donors, including the International

Monetary Fund (IMF), which announced a suspension of aid programs in May 2009. The World

Bank and the African Development Bank continue to provide some assistance. AU and SADC

Member States prevented Rajoelina from addressing the 64th session of the United Nations

General Assembly in September 2009. He did not attend the September 2010 session, reportedly

to avoid another confrontation with the African states.

After assuming office, Rajoelina remained defiant in spite of international pressure. In June 2009,

a Madagascar court sentenced Ravalomanana in absentia to four years in jail and a $70 million

fine for alleged abuse of office.42 Members of SADC convened an extraordinary summit later that

month and nominated the former president of Mozambique, Joaquim Chissano, to lead a new

mediation effort. Chissano convened talks between Rajoelina, Ravalomanana, and two former

Malagasy presidents, Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka, in early August in Mozambique’s capital,

Maputo. In August, almost six months after the political crisis began, the opposing parties signed

an agreement to form an inclusive, transitional government that would rule for up to 15 months,

during which time new elections would be held. Weeks later, Rajoelina named a new government;

only two of the 31 ministers named were considered to be critics of Rajoelina. Ravalomanana and

the country’s three main opposition parties denounced the proposed cabinet, charging that it

violated the terms of the Maputo agreement. They vowed to establish a parallel government in

accordance with the framework outlined in the agreement. SADC also rejected Rajoelina’s new

government, and the AU called on the parties to adhere to the Maputo agreement.

Talks resumed in Maputo, and in October 2009 the parties announced that they had reached

agreement on posts in a new transitional government, which would be led by Andry Rajoelina

until new elections were held. Ravalomanana reportedly agreed to the arrangement on the

condition that Rajoelina would not vie for the presidency in those elections. Under the accord,

several members of Rajoelina’s administration, including his prime minister at the time were

replaced by consensus candidates like Eugene Mangalaza. Rajoelina subsequently dismissed

Mangalaza in December, and appointed a military officer, Brigadier General Albert Camille Vital,

to serve as his new prime minister. He pressed forth with plans for legislative elections to be held

in March 2010, but in early 2010, under international pressure, agreed to postpone elections until

later in the year.