King Of The Hill

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02 Nov 2017

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James Schneider

Miss Ounan/Mr. Rudolf

Senior Thesis

King of the Hill

Due to its growing economy and population, technological and scholastic advancements, and superiority over the world’s most important and powerful nations in many other fields, China is poised to be the strongest nation of the 21st century. In other words, if the nation of China sustains its current rate of increasing global influence in the previously mentioned fields it is possible by the end of the 21st century they will achieve the dominative status of being labeled a global ‘superpower’. What constitutes a country being labeled a ‘superpower’ though? The term superpower in this sense refers to a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon. The four basic components of obtaining this superpower stature may be measured by the four basic yet most essential axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural. If one single country were to dominate these four categories in relation to the other competing nations for the position of global superpower, they would essentially ‘win’ this hypothetical race for global superiority. China is an ominous contender in this race with their advanced technologies and cryptic dealings with the world and is certainly a worthy opponent. However, as portentous as the circumstances may seem in terms of China’s quick rising to power, there are still good reasons to be skeptical that China will achieve superpower stature anytime soon. In terms of international power, China has a long way to go to rival the power in international affairs of the United States, whom is their greatest competitor for this position. China’s political, military, economic, and cultural affairs will be inspected and evaluated to show the significance they’ve played in the nation’s increase in power and influence in the modern world.

Up until the early 1900s, China’s political system was that of a dynasty. A dynasty is a sequence of rulers considered members of the same family. The Xia dynasty was the first dynasty in China to be described in ancient historical chronicles and is thus the first dynasty to be proven to exist; rule of the Xia dynasty lasted from 2070 BCE-1600 BCE. From this time until the early 1900s many dynasties ruled over China, the last of which was the Qing dynasty that held power from 1644-1912. Although these family rulers held great power in China and the nation itself was powerful due to its immense size and population, geography, resources, and wealth, it was not until the 1970s China earned a say in international affairs (Goodwin).

However, between the time China gained entry into the United Nations (UN) and the decline of dynasties, China went through dark times with a strong rise in Communism in the early-mid 1900s. During the rise of Communism, China was not recognized by Western industrial nations, due to their communist views, and thus was not able to benefit from commerce and trade with these states. Mao Zedong, who was a Chinese communist revolutionists and political theorists and considered to be the founding father of the People’s Republic of China (PBC), also severely hampered China’s attempts to modernize with his implemented government programs that essentially broke up Chinese families and their social traditions. This and Zedong’s desire to limit outside influences continued to hurt China’s attempts to maximize its vast resources to compete globally. But after Zedong’s death in 1976, China initiated a number of reforms in order to essentially undo the damage he had done to the nation. These reforms began to strengthen China’s influence slowly at the time in the world but its political influence has grown undeniably over the last three decades. This rise in influence, in part, is due to the reversal of its position in the international order (Goodwin).

The PRC, for the first two decades of its existence, was an outsider, shut out of the international political and economic community by effective American containment policies of embargo and ostracism. But upon entry into the UN, China had at last acquired legitimate standing in the international community and could begin to use the instruments of conventional diplomacy and access to the international economy to pursue its national interests abroad. China’s international prestige and political influence grew as Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in the 1980s, which involved increase over time of the Gross National Product (GNP), transformed China’s economy and its relationship to the world. These reforms, along with growing acceptance of China in international markets, changed the course of Chinese communism. Since then, China has worked to translate its continued economic success into political influence and to overcome international perceptions of it as an atrocious abuser of human rights (Subramanian).

The PRC’s seat as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council is one of, if not its most, important assets of leverage in international policies. But since taking up its seat in 1971, China (Beijing) has used it to mediate and balance, not to disrupt, unseat, or displace American leadership and initiatives in international affairs. For example, during the 1990-1991 Gulf crises Beijing voted in favor of all UN resolutions sanctioning Iraq and calling for its withdrawal from Kuwait. While voicing its reservations about those resolutions, however, Beijing did not veto them and merely abstained. Similarly, in the diplomatic maneuvering preceding the 2003 Iraq War, Beijing played up French, German, and Russian opposition to resolutions explicitly authorizing an American-led use of force against Baghdad and attempted to broker their opposition with the Americans and the British (Goodwin).

Over the course of three decades China went from having little to no say in international affairs to holding great power in the decisions of worldly affairs. Also, they are using their power for good essentially; making decisions that benefit not only them but humanity in general, and avoiding creating unnecessary conflicts with other nations. This is evident in the previous examples given regarding the Gulf crises and Iraq War. This drastic increase in political power reflects China’s inevitable climb to becoming a global superpower.

The Chinese military, known as the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is the world’s largest military force with approximately 3 million members and also has the world’s largest standing army with 2.25 million members. The PLA consist of five main service branches including the PLA Ground Force, PLA Navy, PLA Air Force, Second Artillery Corps, and the PLA Reserve Force. Military service is compulsory for all men who attain the age of 18; women may register for duty in the medical, veterinary, and other technical services at ages as young as 14. However, a draft in China has never been enforced due to large numbers of volunteers from China's huge population (Subramanian).

The Chinese military has been utilizing the nation’s rapidly growing wealth and its access to Western technology to modernize its military force, more recently especially in the area of rocket development. In current day, China is placing satellites in space, developing space missions, and investing in advanced technologies that have boosted its position as a leader in military hardware. China’s rapidly growing interests abroad have driven the nation to focus on developing its rocket/space and naval programs; these programs are essential for global reach. The Chinese have developed their naval force to include diesel and nuclear submarines and surface vassals, a continuous and highly successful effort that began in the 1970s. The Chinese navy has gone from territorial patrols since that time to engaging Somali Pirates in 2008 (Miller).

Since 1985, China has pursued a rigorous program of military modernization that has generated great controversy and attracted much attention. Since 1989, defense allocations in China’s state budget have risen at double-digit rates. China is developing a new generation of strategic and tactical missiles, some of which are deployed on the Chinese coast facing Taiwan. China is also building a much more capable navy and has bought advanced aircraft from Russia, specifically advanced Su-27 fighters. But these military modernization efforts are best understood as an effort targeted at the needs of specific conflict scenarios in China’s immediate periphery, not abroad. Specifically, China’s military modernization programs appear focused on several priorities which include acquiring close to shore naval and air support capacities to defend China’s coast which acts as the geographic backbone of the nation’s industrial economy. Establishing credible military capacities to win conflicts quickly and decisively on China’s long land borders and to defend the nation in general which is arguably the heaviest militarized region of the world is also a focal point. Lastly, the preservation of China’s second-strike deterrent against a strategic first strike is of utmost importance (Miller).

A majority of China’s military modernization programs are intelligible as addressed at these priorities. For example, to meet its aims with Taiwan, Beijing is looking to develop enhanced submarine capacities to blockade the island, buying advanced aircraft from Russia to establish control of the skies over the Taiwan Strait, and exploring asymmetric information warfare capacities to paralyze their ability to resist. Beijing has also bought Russian Sovremenniy destroyers primarily because they carry the SSN-22 Sunburn, which is a supersonic, low-altitude anti-ship missile designed to attack aircraft carriers, the instrument of choice should the United States choose to intervene in a Strait conflict (Miller). Chinese military developments, from this perspective, deserve vigilance in the broader context of ongoing military modernization efforts throughout Asia. Russia willing to sell China advanced weapon systems and military technology, along with the nation’s dramatic economic growth, gives China opportunity to change the balance of military power in Asia in their favor.

China’s rapidly growing economy is one of the most prominent reasons it is on its way to being a global superpower and has provoked the most recent attention to China by other worldly powers. In China, manufacturing in an enormous industry and is an extremely important aspect of the Chinese economy. Manufacturing has represented a large and growing sector of employment, in the last two decades. The number of people employed in manufacturing-related jobs increased significantly during the 1980s-1990s. Since the early 2000s, manufacturing employment has been on a significant rise. It is estimated, as of 2008, that roughly 100 million people in China work in the manufacturing industry, however, some researchers suspect this number may be much higher. Although the Chinese manufacturing industry, as any industry does, goes through sudden increases and declines in business, one thing remains evident- the demand for Chinese-made goods is strong. The strong recoveries the industry has gone through suggests that China’s manufacturing-based economy is quite resilient. Countries such as the United States who are constantly at competition with China simply cannot compete in the manufacturing industry because China has a number of competitive advantages in this field such as an massive pool of inexpensive labor, low property costs, large concentrations of low-cost suppliers, and a fairly stable government that enacts policies which promote foreign investment in manufacturing. As consumers in other countries experience economic turmoil, China stands to profit from the consumers’ need or desire to seek out a bargain. Also, with China’s enormous population and growing middle class, the country itself has a large market for consumption of manufactured goods that continues to grow (DiLascio).

The PRC is not only the world’s second largest economy; it is also the world’s fasting growing major economy with a growth rate of 10% over the past 30 years. China is the largest exporter and second largest importer of goods in the world. Exports of Chinese goods have expanded dramatically in the past decade. In 2010 alone, China exported approximately $1.5 trillion worth of goods. This represents a significant portion of the Chinese economy, and does not even take into account the domestic consumption of such goods, which has also been on the rise. In 2003, China’s GDP by exchange rate measures totaled US$ 1.159 trillion and ranked sixth in the world, however, the rank of China’s GDP places much higher third or even second using purchasing power parity calculations. Power parity calculations refer to purchasing power parity, which is an economic theory and a technique used to determine the relative value of currencies, while estimating the amount of adjustment needed on the exchange rate between countries in order for the exchange to be on par with each currency's purchasing power. It essentially asks how much money would be needed to purchase the same goods and services in two countries, and uses that to calculate an implicit foreign exchange rate. In 2003, China ranked ninth, supplying 3.5 percent of the world’s exports; it may soon overtake Canada and Italy as the next largest exporter (Miller).

China’s economic successes are impressive enough and deserve attention. They reflect China’s late entry into the international economy it was effectively shut out of until 1971 when the revision of its development policies and the role of the international economy in them by Deng Xiaoping in 1978. Over the two decades after 1978, China’s economic growth rates approached 10 percent annually. This colossal increase in the economic field and the hold China has over the world as being the #1 supplier of goods reflects China’s inevitable climb to being a global superpower in terms of economics.

China’s culture is one of the world’s oldest cultures and it has long fascinated the West, and China today has become a major tourist attraction; the most popular tourist attraction being the Great Wall of China. Tokens of this fascination abound in the United States. Every year more and more American students are studying Chinese as their second language of choice and are taking time out for study of China itself, a decision that undoubtedly reflects growing perceptions of China as a land of opportunity. China is the third most visited country in the world. In 2010 alone the number of tourists from overseas reached a whopping 55.98 million; in 2009 Chinese tourism revenue reached $185 billion. China has become one of the world's hottest and most-studied inbound and outbound tourist markets. According to the World Tourism Organization in 2020 China will become the largest tourist country and among the largest for overseas travel. In terms of total outbound travel spending, China is expected to be the fastest growing in the world from 2006 to 2015, jumping into the number two slot for total travel spending by 2015 (Miller). This fascination of the Chinese culture by the world, especially by other powerful nations such as the United States, emphasizes China’s influence in the modern world and foreshadows the global superiority China will soon hold over the world as a superpower.

As this is not a utopian world, China, as any country, is not without its problems. The nation has struggled in several crucial areas, but the three that have gained the most attention as being the most hampering to China’s rise to power are product safety, human rights issues, and environmental concerns. In the early twenty-first century, Chinese products were the subject of quite a few widespread recalls in the United States. These recalls included but were not limited to children’s toys containing traces of lead paint, and pet food, toothpaste, and a selection of other household goods tainted with poisonous substances. In addition, several food safety issues that originally were confined to China eventually made headlines in the US, including the intentional tainting of powdered baby formula with melamine, a highly poisonous substance, in an attempt to disguise the fact that the formula had been watered down. Incidents such as these further tarnished the nation’s already fragile reputation for producing goods of questionable quality, but ultimately did not have a great impact on the demand for Chinese-made goods. Furthermore, China has always had a negative reputation for employing child and prison labor in its manufacturing facilities in order to keep wage expenses as low as possible (Ghitis). However, even taking all of this into account, the harsh fact remains that goods produced in China are among the cheapest in the world, and consumers’ desires for a good bargain trump safety and welfare concerns, as the demand for Chinese products remain as high as ever.

It is a known fact China has had a highly questionable track record regarding human rights. There are copious examples of the government abusing the rights of any individual or group that speaks out against its policies, such as the jailing of or placing into labor camps of said individuals. China’s poor human rights record was highlighted before and during the 2008 Beijing Olympics, however, this did not hinder China from winning the ‘bid’ to hold the Olympics, and did not stop people from around the world from partaking in the festivities that such a large event brings along. Once again, the truth seems to be that, while people verbally criticize China’s treatment of its people and its prisoners, these same people continue to purchase Chinese-made goods, thus having little effect on China’s economy and growing global influence (DiLascio).

Additionally, China has experienced more than a few environmental problems as a result of its enormous population, the culture of its manufacturing industry, and laidback regulations in these fields. The primary issues plaguing China’s environment are air pollution and a lack of access to safe drinking water. China is very fortunate to have the amount of natural resources it has at its disposal, but improving its environmental conditions will certainly help its growth and influence in the long run. However, China’s environmental struggles do not in any way mark the end of its rise to being a global superpower. Many industrialized nations in the early years of their industrial revolutions caused great environmental damage, and despite government regulation many today continue to destroy their natural resources at an alarming rate. Some countries, such as the United States, have achieved global superpower status despite the environmental problems created as a result of high-polluting industries such as manufacturing and energy generation (Zakaria). While the problems in China seem to be of calamitous proportions, it is a situation the Chinese government can resolve and is taking steps to find ways to improve.

It’s growing economy and population, technological and scholastic advancements, and superiority over the world’s most important and powerful nations in many other fields ensure China’ position as the upcoming strongest nation of the 21st century. But it is in its military, politics, culture, and economy China’s future lies. China is utilizing the nation’s rapidly growing wealth and its access to Western technology to modernize its military force which is allowing the large nation to expand its global reach, thus allowing a larger scale for worldly influence. China’s diligence in its dealings with and altering of its past political system(s) into one that better suits the world and nation itself in modern times proves its ability to adapt for survival. Chinese culture is one of the oldest cultures and one of the most studied today; China is among the world’s most visited countries and profits billions of dollars from the tourist industry. This growing fascination with Chinese culture strengthens the nation’s global influence and thus helps pave the path to China’s global superiority. China’s economy is among the strongest economies in the world, with growth rates averaging 10% over the last 30 years. Also, China is the largest exporter of goods in the world. It is this hold China has on the world as being the provider of the goods powerful nations such as the United States depends on for survival that ensures China’s victory in the global market region. All of these factors make China an ominous contender in the race for global superpower stature. With its ability to adapt, advance, and flourish in struggling times, China is capable of and well on its way to becoming the world’s most powerful nation in the 21st century.



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