Infrastructure Development And Improvements

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

"If a gun is introduced in Act I, it will be used in Act III" – Anton Chekhov [1] 

The Chinese have created massive infrastructure development and improvements in the border region of Xinjiang and Tibet. In particular, Tibet plateau [2] "has been transformed from a remote mountain kingdom of incarnate lamas into a land crisscrossed by high speed trains and wide highways". The construction of state of the art highways, airports, rail links, oil pipelines and logistic installations in the Tibetan plateau has both civilian and military usage. These improvements not only enable the Chinese to control Tibetans and Uyghur by settling its Han populations into these thinly populated areas and integrate them into mainstream, but also to project power in central and south Asia. There has been a significant force modernization drive and increased defense spending to support the modernization program by the People Liberation Army to develop itself as a force to fight "local wars in conditions of informationization" [3] .

The infrastructure development and force modernization have significantly enhanced the Chinese war waging potential. They have been attempting to transform and integrate the one time buffer state of Tibet into mainland China. The enhanced war waging potential, increased disparity of forces and the will (which grows with power) to settle the Sino Indo border dispute, embarrass India for providing political asylum to Dalai lama, supporting Tibetan rebels, and housing the Tibetan government in exile may lead to Sino-Indian conflict. The conflict may also have its roots in Chinese support to proxy war propagated by the Pakistan or to Naxalites war in India. The maritime clashes may occur due to increased Chinese interference in the Indian Ocean region (IOR) or to counter any Indian influence in South China Sea. China may exploit the force and mobility differential along the Sino- Indian border to relieve the pressure in maritime theatre.

The 21st century has seen rise of China and an emerging India. Both nations have huge potential in terms of populations, vast resources, natural, human, economic and military forces and they also possess nuclear weapons. As two of the world’s oldest civilizations, China and India have continued to coexist in relative peace with exceptions of the 1962 war over Aksai chin, Tibet and present day Arunanchal Pradesh (AP). The old Silk Road not only facilitated trade between both nations, but also enabled the spread of Buddhism from India to East Asia [4] . During the 19th century, China's growing opium trade with the British Raj triggered the Opium Wars [5] and weakened both China and India under different forms of foreign domination. In the 20 th century, India and China played a crucial role in halting the progress of Imperial Japan during the WWII [6] and hastened the end of colonial rule and dominance in Asia. However, modern day Sino – Indian relations began in 1950 when India broke relations with the Republic of China which had fled to Taiwan in 1949 and recognized People’s Republic of China. Since that time, the relations between the two countries have been complex and sometime difficult.

The illusion of Sino-Indian solidarity – "Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai" (Indians and Chinese are brothers) and the foundations of peaceful coexistence under "Panchsheel, the five principles" enunciated by Pandit Jawahar Lal Nehru, the first Prime minister of India, was shattered by the Sino –India war of 1962. The defeat in the war raised Indian awareness about the imperatives of safeguarding national security. Post 1962, China’s continued support to Pakistan, Nepal, Mayanmar and Bangladesh and the bilateral relations between China and India dipped to an all-time low. This period saw a complete breakdown in diplomatic relations.

The PRC assisted Pakistan in its war against India in 1965 and India started aligning itself with USSR. The Soviet China relations despite similar ideologies started deteriorating because of Soviet’s support to India. Soviets moderated between India and Pakistan in Tashkent and called for lasting peace between both the nations. China and Pakistan constructed an all-weather road across territory claimed by India to link Pakistan with China’s Xinjiang Uyghur region. India signed a treaty of "Peace, Friendship and Cooperation" with Soviets for strategic cooperation, a significant deviation from its nonaligned ideology [7] to safeguard its national interests. The Dec 1971 war between Indian and Pakistan saw the liberation of Bangladesh wherein the Soviets sided with India and China with Pakistan. China and India started accusing each other of fomenting trouble by supporting and assisting Khampa rebels in Tibet and dissident groups in north eastern region of India. There had been also a series of border skirmishes e.g 1967 Chola incident and Sino Indian Skirmish of 1987.

The diplomatic exchanges between both nations remained minimum if not formally cut off. In 1978, Mr Atal Bihari vaypayee, the Indian external affairs minister visited PRC and reestablished the diplomatic relations officially, which was reciprocated by Mr Huang Hua, the foreign minister for PRC in 1981. The 1988 visit of Mr Rajiv Gandhi, the Indian Prime minister of India to China breached the wall and commenced the warming trend in the bilateral relations. The both sides agreed to broaden bilateral relations and work towards settlement of border disputes in a reasonable and fair manner. The Chinese premier Li Peng visited India in Dec 1991 and Indian President visited PRC in May 1992. Significant progresses were made in areas of reducing tensions on the border by reduction of troops and other confidence building measures (CBM) to include systematic meetings of military commander at various levels and informing other sides of the military exercises. However, the border dispute still remain unsettled and both nations though working towards greater cooperation continues their force modernization and infrastructure developments along their borders.

There have been different threats and priorities for both the nations which have guided their war fighting doctrines and force development since 1950s. China has increased its defense budget and modernized its force guided by its military doctrine which has evolved from People’s War to Local Wars in Conditions of Informationization with emphasis on the use of high technology post 1991 Iraq war [8] . Chinese have also developed infrastructure and support structure in western china especially in Tibetan plateau. The Chinese have not deployed any troops close to line of control (LAC) but has kept them close and concentrated in operational depth duly acclimatized for high altitude warfare. The improved lines of communication along with better living support structures facilitate faster build up, rapid switching and timely application of forces at point of decision.

India has its forces deployed along borders with both Pakistan and China. India needs deployed forces to check the movement of infiltrators and terrorist from Pakistan. India and Pakistan have fought three conventional wars in 1947-48, 1965 , 1971, one limited war in 1998 and numerous cross border raids and smaller conflicts. The Indian troops are also deployed all along the Chinese borders to negate and counter any Chinese intrusion and embarrassment like 1962. However, currently India lacks the adequate lines of communication and infrastructure along the borders. Which combined with the continuous deployments along the borders has taxed the Indians defense posture.

The rapid infrastructure development and force modernization has enhanced the Chinese war waging potential along the border primarily based on its application and sustenance. Emboldened by growing disparity, the Chinese patrols have started becoming aggressive and have tried to intrude across the accepted alignment of LAC a number of times. The PLA have also been carrying out large scale military exercises involving movement of troops in high altitude area and from one military region (MR) to another MR to war game their various courses of actions (COAs). The increased war waging potential and the intent to use it to settle the border dispute forcefully or to embarrass India makes the situation vulnerable to conflict or sudden escalation. Any conflict along the LAC has the potential to escalate into a major conflict and thereby lead to Sino- Indian conflict.

Primary Question

Is the rapid infrastructure development and force modernization by China on the Tibetan Plateau preparing for a Sino-Indian conflict?

Secondary Questions

What are the threat perceptions on both sides?

How have PLA evolved since 1949 in their doctrine, force structure and supporting infrastructure in Tibetan plateau.

How has Indian army evolved in its doctrine, force structuring and infrastructure development along the Chinese borders?

What are the disparities in the balance of forces, disposition and infrastructure and it implications?

What are the likely scenarios for the conflict?

Limitations

Since, the researcher does not have access to the governmental documents of either of the countries on political, strategic and military matters; the thesis is based on the unclassified open sources, written material and the viewpoints of the governments of China, India by analysts all around the globe. The dynamics of the strategic and operational environment affect the bilateral relations immensely. However, the researcher has viewed the probability of conflict from the military point of view. Neither the nation has a formally announced national security strategy but both have articulated their national interests, viewpoints and objectives.

Delimitations

The relations and security aspects between the two nations are based on host of actions and multilateral engagements. There are global and bilateral aspects which will surely dictate the security and stability environment, but have are not been considered due to vastness of the subject. The researcher has looked at the balance of security and probability of conflict from a military viewpoint taking in considerations doctrine, force structuring and infrastructure in TAR. The researcher has only considered the ground forces to look at the conflict scenario.