In View Of Chinas Rise

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

INTRODUCTION

"China's lips say they have no expansionist ambitions. But their body language says, 'Get out of the Way'. "

- Douglas Paal

1. The phenomenal growth of the Chinese economy and its military might during the latter part of the twentieth century are the two most significant events with global ramifications. If present trends continue, Beijing believes it will achieve its legitimate status of a Super Power by 2050. With a growing economy, China will need to secure its interests in terms of trade & energy security all over the globe. With majority of its trade passing through the IOR, it is important for China to exercise its influence over the SLOCs that pass through the Indian Ocean. With a growing presence of China in the IOR, it will have implications on India’s security in the region. India therefore needs to work out a strategy that factors the growing Chinese presence in the region and take necessary steps to counter the emerging threat.

METHODOLOGY

Statement of Problem

2. At present most of Chinese trade and oil pass through the IOR. To study & analyse the impact of China’s growing needs & interests in the IOR ; the associated security threat it poses and the response options for India.

Hypothesis

3. Most of China’s energy needs and trade pass through the SLOCs in IOR. As a result China is increasing its footprint and influence in the region and simultaneously encircling India using its "String of Pearls" strategy. This has emerged as a major security challenge for India in the Region. In order to maintain its influence in IOR & safeguard its interests, India needs to counter any threat that emerges in IOR.

Justification of the Study

4. China’s sheer size and growing power are altering the contours of Asian security, international trade and global balance of power. This has far reaching implications on India’s national security interests. India shares approximately 3917 kms long disputed boundary with China and most of the territorial disputes are unresolved even today. The Chinese global and regional aspirations have led to a situation, where it is increasing its influence in the IOR to secure its trade and energy requirements passing through the region. This has major security implication for India. India therefore needs to evaluate the emerging threats due to growing Chinese presence in IOR and work out a strategy to counter these threats.

Scope

5. The study will be limited under the following:-

Overview of China’s rise on the World Scene as related to IOR.

Areas of Contention with India.

China’s concern in the region, the insecurity of SLOCs and Present Strategy in the Region.

Major players in IOR other than India and China.

(e) India’s response to counter Chinese Strategy in the IOR.

Method of Data Collection

6. The data on the topic of the dissertation will be obtained from various books, military and civilian journals, newspapers and from the Internet. End Notes of the source of information will be appended at the end of each chapter. Bibliography of the source of information will be appended at the end of the paper.

Organisation of the Dissertation

7. The main body of the dissertation will be covered in the following chapters:-

(a) Chapter I. Overview of China’s rise on the World Scene as related to IOR.

(b) Chapter II. Areas of Contention with India.

(c) Chapter III. Chinas concern in IOR, the dilemma of trade routes and present strategy in the region.

(d) Chapter IV. Major players in IOR other than India and China.

(e) Chapter V. India’s response to counter Chinese Strategy in the IOR.

OVERVIEW OF CHINA’S RISE ON THE WORLD SCENE

8. China has been the most successful growth story of the twentieth century. It is poised to become one of the major global powers by latter half of present century. Going by the history of China, it believed in singularity of its civilization. Chinese considered themselves as centre of the world, the "Middle Kingdom" as they called it. Other societies were considered as gradations from it.. As the nineteenth century progressed, the "Middle Kingdom" mentality of Chinese was shattered. The prime reason for this was that they failed to capitalise on the fruits of industrial revolution. The West was able to capitalise on it and negotiate with China from a position of strength.

9. Since this dissertation deals with the maritime threats from China, it will be in order to briefly reflect on Chinese maritime history. China presently does not have classic blue water navy as possessed by the western powers. It is therefore struggling to counter the maritime threats from the western countries in general and US in particular. China had the opportunity, before the western world, to dominate the seas and rule the world. During the Ming Dynasty between 1405 and 1433, China launched one of the history’s most remarkable and mysterious naval enterprise in which Admiral Zeng He set out in fleets of technologically unparalleled ‘Treasure Ships’ to destinations as far as Java, India, The Horn of Africa and Straits of Hormuz. At that time the European age of exploration had not even begun. Chinas’ fleet possessed an definite technological advantage. Zeng He’s expeditions stopped abruptly in 1433, coincident with the recurrence of threats along China’s Northern land frontiers. The next emperor ordered the fleet to be dismantled and the records of Zeng He’s voyages destroyed. As a result China might have lost a chance to be the first to dominate the waters of the planet. This was also evident during the Opium war when the British, due to their superior armada, could coerce China to sign unequal agreements and thus started the decline of China.

Chinese Expansion in IOR

10. With the advent of 21st century China has started to rise once again. What kind of a power it will mature into is a suspect. If we go by the recent history China has shown adequate signs of being an expansionist nation. The proof of this can be seen in the East and South China Sea. Chinese interests are also spilling into the Indian Ocean. One of China’s most prominent policy intellectuals has advocated for the creation of overseas bases. Shen Dingli, a professor at Fudan University in Shanghai, asserts that "it is wrong for China to believe that it has no right to set up bases abroad." He argues that it is not terrorism or piracy that’s the real threat to China. It’s the ability of other states to block China’s trade routes that poses the greatest threat. To prevent this from happening, China, Shen asserts, needs not only a blue-water navy but also "overseas military bases to cut the supply costs." [1] At the same time, Shen also advocates that the establishment of such military bases overseas would promote regional and global stability. As China emerges on the world scene, it will expand its military footprint across the globe, much like that other great power, the US. The rapid expansion of China’s naval capabilities and broader military profile is a classic manifestation of its great power status. China’s new naval strategy of "far sea defence" is aimed at giving Beijing the ability to project its power in key oceanic areas, including and most significantly the Indian Ocean. [2] China has been acquiring naval facilities along the crucial choke-points in the Indian Ocean not only to serve its economic interests but also to enhance its strategic presence in the region. China realises that its maritime strength will give it the strategic leverage it needs to emerge as the regional hegemon and a potential superpower.

Chinese Growing Interest in IOR

11. China’s growing dependence on maritime space and resources is reflected in the Chinese aspiration to expand its influence and to ultimately dominate the strategic environment of the Indian Ocean region. China’s growing reliance on bases across the Indian Ocean region is a response to its perceived vulnerability, given the logistical constraints that it faces due to the distance of the Indian Ocean waters from its own territory. Yet, China is consolidating power over the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean with an eye on India, something that emerges clearly in a secret memorandum issued fifteen years ago by the Director of the General Logistic Department of the PLA: "We can no longer accept the Indian Ocean as only an ocean of the Indian. China’s growing naval presence in and around the Indian Ocean region, beginning in areas such as China’s Hainan Island in the South China Sea, is troubling for India. China deployed its Jin class submarines in 2008 at a submarine base near Sanya in the southern tip of Hainan, raising alarm in India as the base is merely 1200 nautical miles from the Malacca Strait and is its closest access point to the Indian Ocean. The base also has an underground facility that can hide the movement of submarines, making them difficult to detect. [3] The concentration of strategic naval forces at Sanya could propel China towards a consolidation of its control over the surrounding Indian Ocean region. The presence of access tunnels on the mouth of the deep water base is particularly troubling for India as it will have strategic implications in the Indian Ocean region, allowing China to interdict shipping at the crucial chokepoints in the Indian Ocean. With almost 80 percent of China’s oil passing through the Strait of Malacca, given its reluctance to rely on US naval power for unhindered access to energy, it has moved to build up its naval power at choke points along the sea routes from the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea. China is courting other states in South Asia by building container ports. Presently Pakistan’s naval capabilities alone pose no challenge to India, the combinations of Chinese and Pakistani naval forces can indeed be formidable for India to counter. Recent suggestions emanating from Beijing that China is contemplating setting up military bases overseas to counter American influence and exert pressure on India have been interpreted in certain sections in New Delhi as a veiled reference to China’s interest in securing a permanent military presence in Pakistan. It is possible to explain the construction of these ports and facilities by China on purely economic and commercial grounds, but regional and global powers like the US, Japan and India inevitably view the sum total of China’s diplomatic and military efforts in the Indian Ocean as projecting power vis-à-vis competing rivals.

How China Views IOR

12. Geographic location of IOR, midway between the oil rich Middle East [4] and the South East Asian regions, lends it strategic importance. South Asia borders most of China’s sensitive southern boundary. This gives China the strategic option of opening direct access through South Asia to the international sea lanes of Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean region has always been the scene of power play between Russia, the US and the West, and the theocratic Islamic states because 75 % of global merchant shipping passes through it. In recent times, South Asia has also become a source of inspiration for Jihadi terrorism and separatism in China. Western parts of South Asia bordering China had been the fountainhead of Jihadi terrorism inspiring fellow Muslims across the borders in Xinjiang province. Similarly, the presence of large number of Tibetan refugees in India and Nepal with strong anti-Chinese sentiments had always been a source of potential trouble for China. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean Region holds a number of attractions for China. The region has a growing economy of over 1.5 billion people in different stages of economic and social development. Its huge, young population represent an enormous and untapped market for Chinese goods. Major political, economic and social problems within and between South Asian nations offer fertile ground for increasing China’s influence through political, military and economic means. The region has considerable unexploited natural resources to provide for the increasing demands of the Chinese industry

13. With Chinese intention not clear in the IOR, we can but speculate as to how things will unfold in the future. Due to confluence of common strategic interests shared by the world’s major powers in the region, a new great game is emerging in IOR. Both China and India have fostered initiatives and forums to attract and project their power and influence. China has two main multilateral forums, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Forum for China-Africa Cooperation. Similarly India has three multilateral initiatives, the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, India-Africa Forum and the Pan-Africa e-network. Both countries are engaged in growing their influence in the Littoral states of the IOR through these initiatives. China has made some serious inroads in the African continent and has been involved in providing aid for infrastructure development. In return China is capturing the markets of these countries for its domestic products. Much of this trade passes through the IOR. Therefore it has become crucial for China to increase its influence in the IOR to fuel its growing economy and subsequently become a major world power.