Asia Pacific Is Confronted With Many Challenges

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02 Nov 2017

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INTRODUCTION

1. In the Global politics, Asia Pacific is confronted with many challenges. It’s a region in which the United States, China and Japan relate directly to one another. The United States is still a dominant power in the region, since post 1945 period, whereas, on an ambitious plan of economic modernization since late 1970s, China has grown steadily stronger. Are China and the United States on a collision course? Is US new Asia Pacific as a "pivot" or "rebalancing" is to contain China? or can they cooperate to bring permanent peace not only in the region but in world? Where does Japan, the world’s second largest economic power, fit in this frame? Japan has maintained its alliance with the United States, while also developing a more independent direction; but it does not wish to see the region dominated by China. Tensions have continued throughout the early twenty-first century in relation to both Taiwan and Korea. Are these tensions likely to result in war at some point? In Southeast Asia the various states have faced numerous "nation building" challenges, none more so than Indonesia.

2. Many groups oppose the authority of the existing states, and these tensions often spill over into the international arena. Throughout Asia Pacific one can also observe the expanding presence of regional and global organizations. The Asia Pacific consist of East Asia and Western powers of Pacific i.e Australia, Canada, New Zealand and United States. East Asia is further divided into Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia. China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Mongolia and Russia (Pacific Russia) form part of Northeast Asia. Whereas Southeast Asia includes Brunei, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand , Singapore, Laos, Myanmar, East Timor and Vietnam. Except East Timor, Southeast Asian countries are all members of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The entire Pacific islands region comes within a definition of Asia Pacific. Together with Australia and New Zealand, the independent and self-governing island states i.e Papua New Guinea and Fiji constitute the Pacific Islands Forum. The Pacific seaboard countries of Latin America i.e Chile, Peru and Mexico are members of APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation). India also interacts with Asia Pacific in various ways.

Aim

3. The aim of the study is to evaluate the shift in US policies towards Asia Pacific for strategic rebalance to the region through regional diplomatic/military alliances, especially at a time when China is emerging as an economic power and flexing its muscle in the South China Sea

Scope

Some of the important issues, to be discussed in the research are:

Evaluate US Policy statement of strategic rebalancing the Asia Pacific region

Obama administration’s forging closer defence ties to countries around/near China including India, Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Singapore; repositioning troops, planes, ships and stepping up aid in the South Pacific

Review the chances of disputes in South China Sea, spiralling into a major conflict and role of ASEAN to mitigate the threat

Possibility of the stakes, to rise in the years ahead as competition intensifies for the oil and gas resources in the region

Evaluate China’s response that is mindful to America's expanding military presence in Asia and the Pacific, describing it as an effort to encircle its country

CHAPTER I

Politics of Asia Pacific in Historical Context

4. The concept of Asia Pacific dates backs to 1960s, as a means of linking East Asia to the wider Pacific region duly promoted by countries like United States, Japan and Australia. "Asia Pacific" highlights the Asian dimension in a way that "Pacific region" does not. US support has been a major factor in enabling the concept to become established. However, from a political perspective the United States cannot portray itself as an Asian power but its extensive involvement in the Pacific justifies describing it as part of Asia Pacific. Pacific-oriented Western countries such as Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, although they do not carry the weight of the United States, have similar reasons for supporting the construct. Japan an important factor behind its support was that while the concept provided a justification for continued US involvement in East Asian affairs, this also meant that if tensions arose in US-Japanese relations, there could be a possibility for defusing such tensions in wider regional settings.

5. As the term "Pacific region" does not contain any specific reference to Asia, the major alternative regional construct has been "East Asia," which excludes Western powers such as the United States. From the late 1980s, the main advocate for same was former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Tun Mahathir Mohamad. In 1989, although Malaysia became a member of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Mahathir’s preference was however, for an East Asian Economic Grouping or Caucus. The "East Asian" approach received a fillip at the time of the Asian economic crisis in 1997, with the subsequent emergence of (ASEAN + 3), a seventeen members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, including Japan, China and South Korea. In December 2005, a new grouping, known as the East Asia Summit, formed in Kuala Lumpur.

6. The major powers of Asia Pacific i.e: United States, China and Japan are particularly engaged in Northeast Asia. The other significant subregion is the Southeast which include Australia, Indonesia, Russia, Taiwan and N & S Korea. Regional organizations play a significant role in giving substance to the Asia Pacific concept. While the focus in this research is on the contemporary era and the recent past but few of the issues we will discuss, have deep historical roots.

Era of Traditional Civilizations

6. Contemporary Asia Pacific system of states is based on the Westphalian model developed in Europe in 1648. Westphalian system was not the prevailing model historically, the shift to this model resulted from the impact of Europeans in the region. China was the dominant force in Northeast Asia, developed as a distinctive civilization over a period of thousands of years. Although there were periods of conflict and division within China, however, the Chinese civilization made significant contributions in the development of bureaucracy (the mandarin system), science and technology, arts, agriculture and industry, commerce and philosophy. China had the dominant cultural influence in the development of Japan, which was following a policy of isolating itself from the outside world as much as possible. Hence Japanese civilization developed along its own lines. In the Chinese view of the world, people living beyond its civilisation influence were characterized as barbarians. In Southeast Asia, while China having an important influence in the northern part of Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam, Indian civilization also had a major impact. The survival of Bali as a predominantly Hindu island within a largely Muslim Indonesia is a reflection of earlier Indian influence. Traders brought Islam to maritime Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, and Southern Philippines) from about the thirteenth century.

The Era of Imperialism

7. The extensive European involvement in the region began from the fifteenth century, the Europeans were particularly interested in trade. Portugal was the earliest European power to become involved in the region, the Spice Islands (later known as the Moluccas or Maluku), Malacca (in modern Malaysia) and Macau (China) were important Portuguese centres. Spain extended influence in the Philippines only. Netherlands took control of Indonesia. The Dutch were the only outsiders who had access to Japan after 1639. The British and French were active in the so-called Far East. The greatest external pressure in East Asia occurred during the nineteenth century to ensure the achievement of strategic and economic objectives. The changing situation was most obvious in relation to China especially from the time of the Opium War (Britain and China-1842), China was forced to make a number of concessions to Western powers through a series of unequal treaties (e.g Hong Kong). Western powers established their influence in different regions of China. The US pursued an open-door policy with the aim of giving all external powers equal access to China. Russia put the most emphasis on territorial expansion. By end of 19th century, Japan had joined the Western powers in making gains at China’s expense and was also competing strongly with Russia in Northeast Asia. In the 1930s and early 1940s the main territorial threat to China was from Japan. During the course of the nineteenth century there was greater competition among those powers, which encouraged the acquisition of colonies in certain regions. The main changes in Southeast Asia involved Britain, France and Netherlands. Britain was the colonial power in Burma (Myanmar), Singapore, Malay Peninsula and northern Borneo. France acquired Indochina i.e Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos. Netherlands expanded its control in the entire archipelago of Indonesia. In addition to these European powers, United States became a colonial power when it got hold of the Philippines from Spain. In the Southeast Asia, Thailand was the only country, escaped colonial rule due to the country’s location as a buffer zone between the British and French spheres. During the early twentieth century, nationalist movements developed as a challenge to Western rule in a number of Southeast Asian countries. With Japan’s defeat in 1945, clearly the re-imposition of the previous colonial system would be no easy task.

Cold War Era (1945–1989)

9. During the post Cold War era, the international relations in Asia Pacific included the new international roles of China, Japan and the United States. The significant developments during the era were the Cold War conflicts in the 1950s and 1960s, Southeast Asia’s decolonization, Sino-Soviet conflict, Sino-American rapprochement, the emergence of Southeast Asian regionalism and postcolonial conflicts in Southeast Asia. During the 1950s and 1960s, Japan gradually emerged once again as a major economic power in Asia Pacific. It relied on the United States for defence. There were significant US forces in Japan, and Okinawa remained under US control until 1972. Japan gave low-level support to the United States during the Korean, and Vietnam Wars. There was a mismatch between Japan’s growing economic strength and its very limited international political role. In Southeast Asia issues of decolonization continued and from the Vietnamese communist perspective the Vietnam War was simply a continuation of the earlier struggle against the French for independence. Malaya got independence from Britain in 1957 subsequently when in 1963, Singapore and the northern Borneo territories joined in the new federation of Malaysia, this development provoked a conflict and Sukarno, Indonesia’s first president, saw the new federation as a neo-colonial scheme to perpetuate British influence, he mounted an anti-Malaysia campaign known as "Konfrontasi" (Confrontation) which ended after the coup in September 1965 by Indonesian military. Under the new President Suharto, changes in Indonesia brought an end to Confrontation and prepared the way for a new regionalism when in 1967, ASEAN the (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) was founded consisting of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. This also strengthened the relations among the non-communist countries in Southeast Asia as well.

CHAPTER II

Factors Influencing Policies in the Region

Confrontation Between US and China

4. International relations in Asia Pacific witnessed direct confrontation between America and China in the context of the Korean War (1950–1953), which commenced with communist North Korea’s attack on anticommunist South Korea on 25 June 1950. With UN authorization, US forces with the support from other countries, had come for the assistance of South Korea. However, instead of stopping at the dividing line between the two Koreas, the United States took the conflict into the north. China felt threatened and entered the war. Moreover, sending of the US Seventh Fleet to the Taiwan Strait meant that Chinese communist forces could not liberate Taiwan from the nationalists. The PRC saw US protection of Taiwan as unwarranted interference in the Chinese civil war. From the Chinese perspective the United States was attempting "encirclement" of China. The PRC became the main focus of then US containment strategy in Asia Pacific .

5. In the 1960s, the emergence of the Vietnam War also highlighted the Sino-US confrontation. The United States interpreted the conflict between Vietnamese communist forces and the anticommunist Saigon government from the perspective of its global strategy of containment. Both the USSR and China were seen as supporting the Vietnamese communists; it was believed that the defeat of South Vietnam would mean an extension of Chinese power. There was an important element of "power politics" in this conflict and each country competed for influence in different regions of the world. In Vietnam, for example, China and the USSR did not engage in a cooperative endeavour, but instead vied for dominant influence. The fact that both powers espoused communism added an important ideological dimension to the conflict.

Sino-US rapprochement

6. During the 1970s and 1980s the most significant development in international relations was the emergence of the Sino-US rapprochement. The Nixon administration sought to achieve improved relations with both the communist powers i.e China and the USSR, thereby improving US leverage. China considered its conflict with the USSR more threatening than its conflict with the United States. Improved US relations would enable China to focus its efforts on its issues with the USSR. This convergence in interests paved the way for a visit to China by President Richard Nixon in 1972. In the Shanghai Communiqué, as signed by the two sides, the United States recognized the "One China" principle, also conveyed its interest in a peaceful resolution of the issue of Taiwan and in 1979 the USA and the PRC established formal diplomatic relations. US recognition of the Republic of China (Taiwan) ceased and the mutual security treaty also ended, although the US continued arms sales through the Taiwan Relations Act (1979). Apart from the changes in the US-China-Taiwan relationship, it also ended polarization in the region and added scope for regional countries to develop relations with both China and the US and to pursue more independent policies.

Conclusion

7. The greater fluidity in international relations in Asia Pacific following the Sino- US rapprochement had implications for Japan. The United States encouraged Japan to expand its international role but Japan remained cautious. Neighbouring countries, particularly China and South Korea, were suspicious of any moves by Japan to expand its security role. Japan was active in the Group of 7 (world’s major economic powers) and expanded its links with Southeast Asia. However, Japanese strength could also lead to resentment in many countries. Japanese economic development provided a model for certain other East Asian countries to follow. The end of the Cold War once again witnessed US main contest in Asia Pacific with China, although relationship had now been transformed with the achievement of rapprochement in 1972. In Asia Pacific the major developments relating to the end of the Cold War concerned the Soviet Union. Soviet-Japanese relations did not change significantly. However, Soviet-US relations clearly changed at the global level but there were also implications in the North Pacific. Tensions relating to the opposing military deployments of the United States and the USSR in this region did ease at this time. While understanding the historical background helps to put recent developments in the international politics of Asia Pacific into context, it is constructive now to be aware of some of the key features of the polities of the region, which will be discussed in next Chapter.

CHAPTER II

Regional Political and Economic System and US Interests

Political System in Asia Pacific

1. Asia Pacific encompasses a broad range of political systems, United States and Japan has liberal democratic political systems; China has an authoritarian political system under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party. Western powers such as Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have liberal democratic principles. A number of the states in both Northeast and Southeast Asia are based on democratic principles. The Russian Federation has moved toward democratization since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but also retains some authoritarian features. Apart from China, there are communist-oriented authoritarian governments in North Korea, Vietnam, and Laos while there have been moves toward reform Myanmar. Brunei is ruled by a sultanate.

US Economic Interest in the Region

2. In terms of economic systems, most Asia Pacific countries are broadly capitalist. The two major economic powers of Asia Pacific are the United States and Japan; Japan has the second largest GDP after the US. Both countries have advanced industrial economies, whereas China is an emerging economic power, with a significant private sector. In Northeast Asia South Korea and Taiwan, two of the "newly industrializing countries" (NICs) are close to the Japanese model. Australia and Canada are closer to the United States in approach. In Southeast Asia, Singapore has the most advanced economy. Prior to the Asian economic crisis of 1997, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia experienced significant economic growth through the development of their manufacturing sectors. North Korea has experienced significant economic decline.

4. US is pursuing economic and trade agenda more aggressively to project himself as an economic leader in the region. US has adopted a three-pronged approach to ensure successful engagement with the regional countries as under:

a. To secure ratification of the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between U.S- Korea.

b. To achieve milestone progress on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TTP) negotiations.

c. To make the APEC more effective.

5. Presently, over 2.8 billion consumers, twenty one APEC economies purchase 60% of U.S. goods. Out of top fifteen trading partners of the United States’, seven are in APEC. Strong Asian participation in APEC, the G-20, and the WTO indicates an increasing importance of Asian economies and with their centrality to strengthening the multilateral trading system and sustaining US economic recovery. The continued integration of the United States with APEC economies, benefit workers, consumers and businesses in the region, subsequently creating jobs in the United States. The region has become important to the success of American President Export Initiative, and his goal to double U.S. exports by 2015. In strategic terms, it would underline US commitment to the security and prosperity in the region and bolster its influence and leadership role in the whole of Asia Pacific. 5. Another essential conduit to increasing U.S. exports to dynamic markets of Asia and expanding U.S. economic engagement is through the Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement. The nine APEC economies, represent approx 140 percent of APEC’s total goods and services exports, involved US, Australia, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore, Chile, Peru, New Zealand and Vietnam, and with these economies US is negotiating a strategic trade agreement, a key to enhancing the 21st century supply chain.

U.S General Approach in the Asia Pacific

1. Recent trends appear to indicate that the Asia-Pacific will become the centre of attention in the 21st century. Whether the 21st century remains ‘‘American’’ or becomes ‘‘Pacific’’ is a matter of debate, but one can still argue in defence of the broader ‘‘Asia-Pacific century.’’ The security role of the United States and the ascent of China to superpower status are likely to be a central focus of the world. The regional security is not by simply looking at what states do in Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, or East Asia as a whole but it also depends on the activities of great powers inside and outside East Asia, and relations among powerful states, especially China, Japan, Russia, and the United States. These states are also directly involved as members of a regional security regime, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), one may argue that the United States is not an East Asian state because it is external to the region, but at the same it is believed that US involvement in the security calculus is must for the region as many of the East Asian states trust the United States more than they trust each other.

20. Asia pacific in 21st Centaury 2. It is now becoming evident that US considers success in the 21st century is linked to its success of policy in Asia-Pacific region. As Secretary Clinton has said, "much of the history of the 21st century will be written in Asia". It is quite clear that the region’s influence is growing rapidly and Asian nations are vital contributors of the global economy and their opinions and decisions have immense influence on tackling complex and emergent transnational challenges. Despite enormous growth in the region, the Asia-Pacific still faces some of the most intimidating challenges of the 21st century. North Korea and Myanmar continue to be considered the main cause for insecurity and instability in the region and remain alien to the region’s prosperity. The most critical issues which the world facing today, are the nuclear proliferation, unresolved territorial disputes, military competition, violent extremism and financial crises. The growing demand of natural resources and energy also poses major risk in the region and demands collective action. Due to rapid emergence of transnational threats and security risks viz a viz US long term national interests in the region. It is now becoming imperative for US to focus her attention and work with its allies and friends in the region to address and meet these daunting challenges. The US Administration has articulated a five-part framework for engagement in the Asia Pacific so as to remains true to its identity as a Pacific power, following a long history and commitment to Asia, which are as under: a. Modernize and deepen alliances with Australia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Philippines and Thailand.

b. Broaden engagement with important countries like Singapore Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Mongolia, New Zealand and most notably India. c. With China, develop stable, comprehensive and predictable relationships.

d. Engage and invest in the region’s promising multilateral architecture. e. Pursue trade and economic strategy more aggressively.

3. United State is working to support the region’s own efforts to promote democracy, freedom of religion, expression and protect human rights. US is also advocating and trying hard for the restoration of democracies in countries like Fiji, Myanmar. Voicing to promote rule of law, respect for human rights and good governance especially in China and Vietnam. The swiftness of US engagement in this getting more and more important region indicates the renewed emphasis focuses on consolidating and deepening partnerships, as US Secretary Clinton has articulated,"our forward-deployed diplomacy in Asia seeks to leverage these relationships to underwrite regional security, heighten prosperity, and support stronger democratic institutions and the spread of universal human rights in the Asia- Pacific region".

4. In number of areas, the region offers the US enormous opportunities, including expanding markets for economic interests and forming new strategic partnerships. . Apart from new alliances, reliance on Japan would remain a cornerstone of US strategic engagement in Asia, the other critical ally is the Republic of Korea (ROK), for whom the US remains committed to the defence and to an enduring military presence there. US alliances with the South Korea and Japan play an exceptionally important role in ensuring peace and stability in the region, especially to counter the daunting and destabilizing policies of North Korea (DPRK). During an important Ministerial meeting in December 2010, it was declared that the belligerent actions of North Korea, threatening all three countries will be met jointly. US also consider Australia, a strategic anchor for regional stability is playing an important role in maintaining global security. United States and Australian forces extending a legacy of cooperation since long, the manifestation of same is the recent launch of the Australia - US ‘Force Posture Review Working Group’, to explore the potential for enhanced U.S.- Australia military cooperation in order to optimize force posture of US in the Asia-Pacific region.

4. With the other regional countries, the US focus is towards further strengthening of alliances. US is working closely with the Philippines to improve their cababilities with regards to maritime security and disaster response, enhancing mutually beneficial military relationships through joint exercises, information sharing, logistics assistance, and capacity-building measures. US engagement with Indonesia was manifested during US President historic trip in 2012 whereas the relations with Malaysia had never been so warmth and cordial in the past. However, since 2009, after taking over as Prime Minister, Mr Najib has taken number of steps in bringing the two countries closer. US ships including carrier groups are now frequently visiting Malaysian ports. US over last several years has proactively engaged Vietnam on trade security and on other initiatives, Vietnam is also among eight negotiating partners in the TPP talks, both countries are now moving toward a strategic partnership. Singapore is US old and reliable partners on non- proliferation and other regional security matters, US is taking number of steps to further enhance bilateral engagement with Singapore.

b. India US government has taken significant steps to enhance engagement with India, which will be playing a key role in the Asia- Pacific. As a growing international player, US consider, India as a counter weight to China and engaging her 8on a wide array of regional issues.

CHAPTER V

An Overview of US-China’s Policy in Asia Pacific

1. An important element of US efforts in the Asia Pacific is an approach towards China, through this approach, US is lookingfor a positive, cooperative, and comprehensive relationship with China. As Secretary Clinton has said, "the U.S.- China relationship is at a critical juncture; how we manage the relationship today with its elements of both competition and cooperation will have a large impact on the future of the region". Over the past couple of years, US and China have taken some measure to move the relationship in a positive direction with solid and tangible steps, to translate these words into action through diplomacy. Nuclear Security Summit held in Seoul was attended by Chinese President; there he also met US President. In another move, China voted in favour of more sanctions on Iran at the United Nation Security Council. The success of same approach was more clearly visible during state visit to Washington by President Hu’s in January 2011, when for the first time China acknowledged the real concern of the world about the North Korea (DPRK) uranium enrichment program. Chinese President visit was a success in many ways as it was materialised after concerted effort by both sides and would surely help to get this relationship right in a manner that interests of both countries are well protected. Other major developments in this regard was United Stated approach towards Taiwan which is continue to be guided by their One China policy and encouragement for more dialogue between the China and Taiwan as well as emphasising on reduced military tensions. US would continue to push China for further action on North Korea for violation of UN Security Council Resolutions. With regards to Iran, US may press China for more tightly enforced sanctions. On the economic side, US will continue to press China for lowering trade barriers, visible progress on economic issues, which includes trade and investment and full implementation of commitments it made during visit of Chinese President to US.

South China Sea-Dispute

2. Southeast Asian states are of immense strategic importance as they stretch across the Indian and Pacific Oceans where the world’s most crucial energy supply and trading routes pass including the congested and vulnerable Strait of Malacca. Many of the regional countries are contesting and having some sense of enmity toward China due to escalating territorial rows and China’s stance of the energy-rich South China Sea. Many including the Philippines and Vietnam have sought US help in resolving and backing them over the escalating situation. From US perspective, China’s hostile behaviour in the maritime disputes could easily disturb the regional "rule-based" order, which has been fostered by the United States since end of World War II. Striving to use the members of Association of South East Asian Nations as an essential means to maintain regional stability and security, the U.S. is stressing the freedom of navigation and argued that all regional maritime disputes be resolved peacefully, not coercively, with an oblique reference to China. In recent years, China has taken an aggressive stance over its maritime disputes in South China Sea with Philippines, Japan, Vietnam and others. "Due to the possibility that China could undermine the freedom of navigation and commerce with its anti-access strategy, the U.S. is rebalancing it’s diplomatic and military resources toward the Asia Pacific, following end of war in Iraq and after drawdown in Afghanistan." 3. The disputes in South China Sea have been more flared up recently. Few of the events really alarmed the entire world especially the regional countries which were caught off guarded. In May 2011, the Vietnamese raised alarm that Chinese warships harassed their oil-exploration vessels and even at two instances cables attached were purposely slashed to underwater survey equipment in the South China Sea. In April 2012, Philippines reported that Chinese boats are involved in suspected illegally fishing off Scarborough Shoal, an islet claimed by both countries in the the disputed waters. . In December 2012, the Japanese military fighter jets srambled when a Chinese marine surveillance aircraft entered airspace near the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. In response Chinese fighters was also scrambled in pursuit. In an other occasion, Japanese authorities arrested over a dozen Chinese nationals, attempting to land on one of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands to challenge their country's claims, resultantly incited widespread protests in China against Japan and even a series of naval show-of-force by both sides was witnessed in the disputed waters . In an another worrisome incident, in January 2013, four surveillance ships of China entered Japanese controlled waters near these islands for 13 hours. It is evident that both China and Japan have no intention of to back down, rather would increase their naval and air deployments in the area. For settling disputes having military encounters, in a peaceful and amicable manner, regional diplomacy is under growing strain and it seems that it may even lose relevance if the contesting



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