Thai Beverage Public Company Limited

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

Investment Management Coursework 2013

Portfolio Construction and Performance

Individual Report

Program: BABMS

Module: BSC 6005 – Investment Mangement

Student Name: Ng Hui Shan

Student ID: 1206009885

Matriculation No: 20048144

Date: 16/4/2013

Word Count: 1482 words

Table of Contents

Topic

Page No.

Introduction

2

Initial portfolio performance

3

Comparative between group assignment and individual assignment

4

Learning point/ outcome

6

Reflection of group acceptance

8

Conclusion

10

Introduction

The objective I wrote this assignment is used to learn how to invest the stocks. At first, I am very confusing that what should I do in the assignment. I try to find the 10 stocks based on the news that I had read before. Thus, there are many mistake in this assignment and lastly cause the loss. Now, just I realize that we not only use the technical analysis and fundamental analysis. Both these two analysis are not influence to the stocks prices.

Initial portfolio performance

Stock

Share price(12 March)

Stock Price (8 April)

Market Value

Profit/Lost

Pan Pacific Serviced Suite

2.39

2.41

9579497.908

-420,502

Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited

40.31

38.8

9144132.969

-855,867

Jubilee

0.14

0.19

12892857.14

2,892,857

SEMBCorp Industries Ltd

5.19

5.08

9298651.252

-701,349

Hutchison Whampoa

21.6

20.6

9060185.185

-939,815

Global Logistic Properties

20.4

20.85

9709558.824

-290,441

Noble Group

1.18

1.17

9419491.525

-580,508

GentingSingapore

1.52

1.46

9125000

-875,000

Eu Yan Sang International

0.62

0.62

9500000

-500,000

Starhill Global Trust

0.67

0.67

9500000

-500,000

97229374.81

-2,770,625

Table 1: Individual monitor

Based on the table above, I notice that there are 5 of the stocks I had chosen make a loss. Besides, some of my stocks’ prices are actually remain the same and increase a little bit. However, after decreasing the brokerage fee it become a loss like Pan Pacific Serviced Suite had increase from 2.39 to 2.41 on 8 April 2013 but it still make a loss 420,502. Global Logistic Properties are actually also increase from 20.4 to 20.85 but it still makes a loss 290,441. The Eu Yan Sang International and Starhill Global Trust is actually remaining the same from 12 March till 8 April. Nevertheless, it still makes a loss 500000, which is the brokerage fee.

Market Value = 97,229,374.81 – 100,000,000/100,000,000*100%

=-0.0277

Annualized Profit = (1-0.0277)12 – 1

= -0.2862

Comparative between group assignment and individual assignment

Stock

Share price(12March)

No of Share

Stock Price (8April)

Market Value

Profit/Lost

Pan Pacific Serviced Suite

2.39

3974895.397

2.41

9579497.908

-420,502

Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited

40.31

235673.5301

38.8

9144132.969

-855,867

Jubilee

0.14

67857142.86

0.19

12892857.14

2,892,857

SEMBCorp Industries Ltd

5.19

1830443.16

5.08

9298651.252

-701,349

Hutchison Whampoa

21.6

439814.8148

20.6

9060185.185

-939,815

Global Logistic Properties

20.4

465686.2745

20.85

9709558.824

-290,441

Noble Group

1.18

8050847.458

1.17

9419491.525

-580,508

GentingSingapore

1.52

6250000

1.46

9125000

-875,000

Eu Yan Sang International

0.62

15322580.65

0.62

9500000

-500,000

Starhill Global Trust

0.67

14179104.48

0.67

9500000

-500,000

 

 

 

 

97229374.81

-2,770,625

Table 2: Individual monitor

Stock

Share Price(12March)

No.of Share

Stock Price (8April)

Market Value

Profit/Loss

Stratech System ( 15 %)

0.02

749,625,000.00

0.03

22,488,750.00

7,488,750.00

Genting ( 15% )

1.52

9,863,486.84

1.46

14,400,690.79

(599,309.21)

Straco ( 10% )

0.3

33,316,666.67

0.31

10,328,166.67

328,166.67

CapitaMall trust ( 5% )

2.1

2,379,761.90

2.16

5,140,285.71

140,285.71

City Development Limited(5%)

11.01

475,267.31

11.22

5,332,499.21

97,188.48

SembCorp(5%)

5.17

1,586,454.65

5.08

8,059,189.63

(146,883.96)

Breadtalk (15%）

1

15,342,816.40

0.96

14,729,103.74

(621,387.90)

Sheng Siong (10%)

0.64

16,248,352.47

0.66

10,723,912.63

319,764.98

Thai Beverage Public Company Limited(10%)

0.61

16,627,467.12

0.60

9,976,480.27

(171,348.59)

Kellogg Company(10%)

63.93

149,548.88

63.97

9,566,641.66

1,199.23

110,745,720.32

6,836,425.42

Table 3: Group final monitor

In my opinion, I feel that my individual assignment actually is worse than group assignment. The main reason that I feel group assignment is better than my individual assignment because it had earned a lot of profit compare to my individual assignment. The other reason is because the group assignment selection is actually come from all group member discussion. Therefore, each transaction we are considering for a long time. We also can say that if there are too many ideas, it might become a conflict between the groups. According to the market value (0.1) I know that the annualized profit is 2.88 in my group assignment but the market value is -0.0277 and the annualized profit are -0.2862. This result shows that the main difference between my individual assignment and group assignment is the profit and loss.

In conclusion, I think that the group assignment is better than my assignment.

Learning point

I had learned many things from this assignment. Firstly, I had learned is market efficiency. These ten stocks that I am choosing is based on the news, past historical prices and use some books to do it.

After having the class (market efficiency theory), I know what is efficient market hypothesis. (EMH) In this theory, I realize that we need to get the newest information relevant about the company when pricing a stock. From the word ‘efficient’ also illustrate the adjustment of the new information is needed. However, it is no reason to believe that the price is too high or too low. All stocks are priced fairy all the time and it is impossible to buy undervalued and overvalued stocks. The main way to get a profit is from the new reason. It able to identify overpriced and underpriced. In short, this theory shows that we cannot select the stocks expert and market timing. The only way to get a higher return is due to the riskier investment.

I had used the weak form efficient market hypothesis to do this assignment. In this form of efficient market, I had learned what is the technical analysis? Technical analysis is very popular and it can seem by people easily. It suggests that current price used the information contained in the past historical prices. I know to use the historical price and the chart to analyze the stock prices. This is the most public and easily to get the details.

For example, I choose jubilee as one of my stocks is because it remain increase since ten year ago. So base on the previous result, I choose to buy this stock. Below is the chart of historical prices past ten year:

This technique also shows that it is difficult to earn profit on the publicly available information. The information that we found is no use like the news like SEMBCorp Industries Ltd because in 28 February Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary PPL Shipyard secured a repeat order for a jack-up rig worth US$208 million ($257 million) from Perisai Petroleum Teknologi. Consequently, this is no influence for the stock prices.

I also learned semi-strong form in EMH, which mean all the current prices and public information. The public information not only includes the historical prices but also the financial statements of the company. This is also ‘everybody knows’ information. This assu7mption is actually stronger than the weak form efficient market. This form is not only need to know the information, it also require the input market and the process of products. In this form, a ‘fundamental analysis’ is used.For example, Noble now had reported full-year profit increased 9% to US$471 million, missing the US$529.5 million average estimate of 13 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue for the year gained 16% to a record US$94 billion while volumes also reached a record 224 million tons, the company said. The Noble had loss in these 4 weeks.

In short, the more the investment the more of the risk. When do the investment, the allocation of the investment very important.

Reflection on the group’s acceptance

In this assignment, there is a team work and a good relationship needed. Firstly, when we start our individual initial assignment, we collaborate for choosing the stocks. After that we discuss together to choose few of the stocks in group assignment and allocate the 100,000,000 to invest the stocks. In the weekly report, we discuss together to make transaction of the stocks. Even the last assignment which are the group assignment and this last assignment we sit together to do the calculation. In short, all of us try to cooperate to finish these assignments. For example, our group assignment had chosen Genting and Jubilee because of my suggestion. I had showed the reason like I choose Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited as one of the stocks because it has been increase in this few years. I believe that it will maintain increase in the future. The reason I choose Genting Sigapore is because of China's economic recovery to improve China's VIP (VIP) gamblers to participate led to Singapore's casino industry. Then, all of my group members had accepted this suggestion and buy the Genting and Jubilee stocks on 12 March 2013. SEMBCorp Industries Ltd had been chosen because Sembcorp Marine’s subsidiary PPL Shipyard secured a repeat order for a jack-up rig worth US$208 million ($257 million) from Perisai Petroleum Teknologi in 28 February. Noble reported full-year profit increased 9% to US$471 million, missing the US$529.5 million average estimate of 13 analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Conclusion

According to the assignment, I had learned a lot of knowledge about the investment. Now, I know what is market efficiency, how to buy the stocks, how to manage my capital. All of these are very helpful for my future. Although I made a loss in my individual assignment, I had got more rather than the failure in my individual assignment.