The Wind Generation Analysis

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02 Nov 2017

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Case Study: Wind Generation Analysis

Global Perspective

Case Study: Wind Generation Analysis

With average temperatures rising across the globe, drastic measures will need to be taken to limit the amount of global warming present (Houghton 2007). "More than 100 countries have adopted a global warming limit of 2 °C or below", and there has been much more emphasis on the implementing of greener technologies by governments and politicians alike (nature). But is the effort of 100 nations going to be enough, neglecting the fact of lesser contribution and corruption or are we going to need more. Regardless, even if we need more participation or not it seems as if there are not many countries that are stepping up to combat global warming. Therefore, the world must work with what is has and get to work before it is too late.

One of the most seemingly successful fronts towards the hindering of global warming is wind energy. Countries are making large strides by using wind power generation "Global wind power generation grew by 29 percent in 2008, with the United States overtaking Germany to become the world’s leading producer of wind-driven electricity" (yale 2009) With twenty-seven million homes being powered by wind generation which is almost 2% of the world’s power demand, with Denmark having almost thirty percent of its power generated by wind turbines (Danish key figures).

So what does this all mean, the International Energy Agency reports that "The development of low-carbon energy is progressing too slowly to limit global warming" (Chestney 2013). With coal energy generation going up 45% and renewable energy generation only going up by 25%, So even with a large increase from renewable energy production progress is unable to out compete such a large market as coal (Chestney 2013). So how come wind is just not performing as well as coal, is wind more risky, does it not produce as effectively as predicted? Actually, there are a multitude of reasons for wind generation being less successful than coal including such things as inefficiencies, improper location, social issues, and danger to biodiversity, government interaction, and the market.

If a the site for a wind farm is not chosen properly it can lead to low production rates of electricity, efficiency due to a couple of key factors. One of which being simply how often the wind is blowing, if the resource needed is not readily available more than most of the time then rate of success and production goes down. Areas that may seem really winding but they may only be winding for some parts of the day or even some parts of the year. Another similar problem that is often experienced is that an area may also seem windy and seemed as if to be a good location. However, the wind is only ever blowing either almost several directions at the same time or shortly blowing different directions right after each other. When wind is blowing around a turbine in this way the is unable to turbine rotate continuously in the same direction safely. Safely here is emphasized due to the various cases where turbine blades get essentially tangled or hit the shaft of the mill, there are many examples of this online for the curious reader to find.

Due to the factors mentioned above in reference to the effectiveness of production due to improper placement of sites, back up measurements must be taken to ensure customers dependable electricity around the clock (umass). These back up measurements include, having to keep coal or other more reliable or non-renewable energy producers functional and on to generating power in order to provide electricity when needed. Sources say that, "that a wind plant would need to be backed up with an equal amount of dispatchable generation" (umass). Meaning that when alternative energy providers are constructed and added to a local grid, it does not mean that that grid’s local polluting power plant will be shut down and instead continues to produce as a load-follower.

Load following must take place due to the fact that energy can not be stored in large amounts and be readily available. Another driving factor is that if the energy being generated by those renewable energy sources does not have an indefinite supply or consistent supply of its resource as described above (Duncan 2009). This way of providing dependable energy, where an energy producer goes on and off the grid depending on the current load or demand for electricity, is only increasing in popularity (Duncan 2009). Currently there are many plants that are kept online for this purpose, to name one of them with in the British Columbia area, Burrard Generating Station in Belcarra, B.C..

There are not only analytical lots of problems with wind turbine energy production, but there are also social and health impacts or problems associated with wind turbines as well (Sean 2011). A common social impact associated with wind turbines is what is known as eye pollution (Bishop 2007). Where one's view could be obstructed by wind turbines on the horizon or perhaps in a beautiful neighborhood (Bishop 2007). Here is a quote from a visual assessment taken, in 2007 to assess if several off-shore wind turbines would intrude an individual’s views. "In most cases, the multiple turbines will be visible from the shore and hinterlands and opposition to the visual intrusion continues" (Bishop 2007).

There are also a number of various health issues that have arisen within relativity close proximity of industrial wind turbines (IWT) (Krogh 2011). These IWTs that are within local communities take away from social justice and lowers local resident well-being (Krogh 2011). One study found that "some individuals residing in proximity to IWT facilities experience adverse health effects...severe enough that some families have abandoned their homes" (Krogh 2011). The study concluded that the residents experienced "emotional and physical toll of individuals’ symptoms, loss of enjoyment of homes and property, disturbed living conditions, financial loss, and the lack of society’s recognition of their situation" (Krogh 2011). These adverse health effects, which many seem as if illegitimate, but can actually drive individuals out of their homes in order to get away from them (Krogh 2011). As one can see, families and individuals can experience quite a strain put upon them from a number of issues, so much so they may be forced to move out of their home.

One of the more popular examples of the burdens from living within close proximity to industrial wind turbines is from a town by the name of Falmouth in the state of Massachusetts. Within this town there are three industrial sized wind turbines within a close proximity of a residential area, and these turbines cause a variety of problems for their neighbors (Sean 2011). There is a large amount of sound generated by wind turbines and the noise can be heard from unexpectedly large distances (Sean 2011). Many of the residents within the area have complained about the noise saying it gives them headaches, interrupts their sleep, and their vertigo, making them essentially dizzy (Sean 2011). One of the residents within the area of the turbines is afraid of the sound that they make and that it cause other psychological issues (Sean 2011). "I’ve learned it’s just a different kind of noise. It’s like it gets inside of me and just causes so much stress and anxiety that even when it isn’t going I have this fear of when it is going to start up again," Funfar said (Sean 2011).

Another disturbance that is created by wind turbines is the flickering of light within close proximity of them (Sean 2011). There is another residence within the area of Falmouth, Massachusetts that complains about a shadow that is project on to his property, when the blade goes past the sun (Sean 2011). This is happening both within his house and all around his property, outside as well (Sean 2011). This flashing happens both in the morning at sunrise and at sunset, creating a flashing effect at both times of the day (Sean 2011). Although this disturbance does not cause actual psychological issues necessarily, something like this could be actually quite annoying while sitting reading one's paper in the morning (Sean 2011). There is also a video of this lighting experience on YouTube for the curious reader to enjoy and to get an understanding of the impact that this could have on one's life. Barry Funfar the resident that owns the house with the flickering light caused by the wind turbines goes around giving public speeches about the misery that he endures while living next to a wind turbine (Sean 2011).

Wind farms also take a toll on the wildlife that inhabits the locations they are being built on. To be effective, wind farms must be placed in large open areas with high average wind speeds, which are often upland and coastal areas. The issue is that these locations are desirable by wildlife and are potentially affecting important habitats for breeding and migrating birds. This was something that I never thought about as being an issue but rather like birds being killed at airports. I knew it was a minor issue but I hadn’t thought about the implications it might have with regards to endangered species. If turbines were located in an area used by an endangered species of birds, such as the bald eagle, it would have a much greater and wider effect on the environment. If turbines greatly limited the population of certain types of birds in an area, what are the larger implications of that area loosing part of its natural ecosystem? "A review of the available literature indicates that, where collisions have been recorded, the rates per turbine are very variable with averages ranging from 0.01 to 23 bird collisions annually (the highest figure is the value, following correction for scavenger removal, for a coastal site in Belgium and relates to gulls, terns and ducks amongst other species" (Drewitt & Langston, 2006)

That may not seem like a very high number of birds that are killed but if you consider species such as the Griffon Vulture and Golden Eagle which are vulnerable to become extinct if not protected the impact of improperly placed wind farms could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. These birds have already been greatly impacted by current wind farms, "Some of the highest levels of mortality have been for raptors at Altamont Pass in California" (Howell, 1991).

So what caused this huge boom we can see in the amount of wind farms to pop up around the United States? The quick answer is that it was driven by the huge subsidies the government offered for green or clean tech. "The US federal government will spend just over $150 billion on clean tech over the 2009-2014 period, a more than three-fold increase from the 2002-2008 period." (Trembath, Jenkins, Muro, Nordhaus, & Tawney, 2012). Most of this spending was attempts at stimulating the economy and create a new ‘Green’ sector in the economy for investment after the economic crash. Despite all of this funding and recent success, it still appears that almost all of wind farm technology from production to deployment is reliant on subsidies from the government. Now, many of these subsidies and policies are poised to expire—with substantial implications for the clean tech industry.

The chart below illustrates how Congress has pushed the huge growth we have seen in the ‘green’ sector of the economy. It highlights the different policies put in place that led to the boom and later bust cycle that we have seen continue since subsidies were first introduced.

"PTC stands for production tax credit, which subsidizes new wind generation by 2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour" (Plummer, 2012)

Looking at this chart we can see the direct effect of the government providing subsidies and letting them expire. Whenever Congress enacted the production tax credit, wind turbines would go up. Whenever Congress allowed the tax credit to expire, as in 1999, 2001 and 2003, the industry would dramatically shrink. This is what we call a boom bust pattern where it is clear that without the help from government tax cuts and subsidies the technology is still too expensive or risky for companies to take on themselves.

However, there was a huge change to this model in 2004 when Congress decided to keep the tax credits from expiring. On top of keeping these tax credits from expiring, local mandates that were enacted in 29 states that required electric utilities to get a percentage of their power from renewable sources such as wind solar or hydro power. This gave companies the incentive they needed to invest in huge projects around the country and wind farms became a booming industry.

We again see a huge drop in wind farm funding in 2008 but this was not due to tax credit expiration rather the financial crisis that affected nearly every sector the government funds with subsidies. So the decline in the graph is not specific to wind technology but rather just a reflection of the economy. Congress tried to solve this problem in the 2009 stimulus by converting tax credits to direct grants but by looking at the graph we can still see that when policymakers offer funding wind power grows.

However, now that we are running out of money to continue down this path of huge financial support for the government we face a potential abandonment of the trend and pace the government was hoping to implement wind farms in the US. If we look at a chart of spending by the government we see a huge decrease in funding. This seems to be just a long cycle of the boom and bust model, since we didn’t allow tax credits to expire for much longer, we saw much more growth but now the bust of that will be longer as well.

(Trembath, Jenkins, Muro, Nordhaus, & Tawney, 2012)

This drop in funding is simply because the US cannot afford to continue spending so much on a sector that has failed to catch on and continue without funding. Yes the price of the technology for wind farms has gone down over the years but it still appears that it is too expensive for companies to feel comfortable starting projects on their own. The bottom line is that wind energy green tech was driven by an artificial bubble that was created by the huge amount of funding the government gave in hopes of stimulating the economy and creating a new sector for investment. But the simple fact is that wind energy is incapable of surviving without subsides from governments and tax payers. The also raises concerns about the future of companies and NGO’s like WWF, FoE and Greenpeace who depend upon this industry.

One of the biggest problems with the amount of government funding and the loans made to companies who started wind farm projects was the potential for those companies to make huge profits. This was greatly dependent on how fast they could complete the project with less focus on the long term effectives and positioning of the farm. What resulted was many companies not taking the proper time to fully analyze a site and consult third party companies about the potential wind energy of each location and how best to lay out their wind turbines. The result we see is a huge loss and abandonment of wind farms that were improperly set up.

So many projects failed due to lack of R&D that it has actually given birth to another tech industry; Companies that take data from all over the world and map out the potential wind solar and hydro power of any location. One of the leaders in this field is a company called 3Teir. Their main job is to fix issues with an existing wind farm that was poorly set up as well as advising locations for new companies still attempting to set up wind farms. The bottom line is they are there to reduce the risk to those companies who need to invest more capital in a project now that government funding is drying up. "Wind power is being relied on by governments around the world to deliver on their promises of low- carbon power. But who is left holding the financial risks inherent to this resource? And what are the prospects for a mature wind derivatives market developing to allow the transfer of risk?" (3Teir, 2011). It has yet to be seen if help from companies like 3Teir will be enough for companies to feel confident enough to continue investing without government funding. Lowering risk is a huge factor in creating confidence but without continued funding from the government it is still possible that the technology will still not seem like a viable option for companies.

Wind energy is by no means perfected as we have shown but from what we have seen these problems are not beyond repair. We feel that there are some minor steps as well as some larger policy changes that will need to be made in order for the wind energy to be successful.

One of the larger issues that is key to the continued growth of wind technology is decreasing of risk companies take on when starting a project. If the risk is too great and there is not enough government funding to push projects forward we essentially will see the end of wind farms until the price of the technology has dramatically decreased. We feel there is hope in companies like 3Teir who are working mainly to reduce risk by providing more accurate wind speed data to assure companies their wind farm will meet the production requirements they have set forth. This technology of accurately predicting wind speeds could create enough confidence for companies to continued building wind farms without subsidies but it has yet to be seen if this will be enough.

Another benefit of companies like 3Teir is the centralization of data they have acuminated. We feel that the sharing of information from not only projects that were successful but more importantly those that failed will help keep companies from making the same mistakes others have made. In our research we were able to find loads of information on trends and funding but very little if any info on specific projects. Had studies been done analyzing why a certain project failed and those reports published we believe this would have drastically cut down on the failed wind farms that were set up during the subsidies boom. This issue is not company by company but a world issue. Companies need to be less concerned about their image and letting their failures reach the public sector and more focused on sharing as much experience as possible. Global warming is upon us and if companies, countries continue to focus on their bottom line rather than the best possible implementation of these wind technologies we will all end up with the continued patterns we have seen so far.

The smaller issues are important as well, such as the protection of wildlife, the sanity of humans living near wind farms and so on but we feel they can be addressed also by the sharing of information. If these issues that we now know are issues from past wind farms are solved during the research and development stage of a project the later costs of moving wind turbines or taking them down wouldn’t be an issue. As for the current wind farms in wrong locations that have been causing issues the price to fix them by adding a net to make them bird friendly or proving some way of blocking shadows or the noise are pretty inexpensive to fix if we also implement the solutions as we continue building other projects.

Sources

3Teir. (2011). Wind Spped Risk: Who Should Pay? Energy Risk Magazine.

Carmen M. E. Krogh

Industrial Wind Turbine Development and Loss of Social Justice?

Bulletin of Science Technology Society, August 2011, vol. 31, no. 4, pages 3 21-333.

Callaway, D. S. (2009). Tapping the energy storage potential in electric loads to deliver load following and regulation, with application to wind energy. Energy Conversion and Management, Volume 50(Issue 5,), Pages 1389–1400.

Chestney, N. (2013, April 17). IEA Clean Energy Report Says Progress May Be Too Slow To Limit Climate Change. Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post. Retrieved April 24, 2013.

Corcoran, S. (2011, March 8). The Falmouth Experience: Sick From The Noise | Climatide . Climatide | Oceans, coasts & climate change on Cape Cod . Retrieved April 23, 2013, Web.

Danish key figures. (n.d.). Danish Energy Agency. Retrieved April 23, 2013.

Drewitt, A., & Langston, R. (2006). Assessing the impacts of wind farms on birds. British Ornithologists’ Union, 29-42.

Houghton, R. A., & Woodwell, G. M. (1989). Global climate change. Scientific American, 260(4), 36-40.

Howell, J. &. (1991). Assessment of avian use and mortality related to wind turbine operations: Altamont Pass, Alameda and Contra Costa Counties. California: Final report prepared for Kenentech Windpower.

Ian D. Bishop, David R. Miller

Visual assessment of off-shore wind turbines: The influence of distance, contrast, movement and social variables

Renewable Energy, Volume 32, Issue 5, April 2007, Pages 814–831.

Massachusetts, edu (2010). Capacity Factor, Intermittency, and what happens when the wind doesn’t blow?. Wind Power:, 2a, 1-4.

Meinshausen, M., & Meinshausen, N. (2009). Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C.Nature, 458, 1158-1162.

Plummer, B. (2012, November 26). The rise and fall of the U.S. wind industry, in one chart. Retrieved from The Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/11/26/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-u-s-wind-industry-in-one-chart/

Stamm, R. (n.d.). Wind Energy Basics.Wind Energy EIS Public Information.

Trembath, A., Jenkins, J., Muro, M., Nordhaus, T., & Tawney, L. (2012). Beyond Boom and Bust



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