Generate And Choose Alternatives

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02 Nov 2017

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Abstract

This paper addresses important questions and issues about rational decision making. One of these questions is how rationality influences the decision making process? Moreover; it groups the influences elements and basic models of decision making In order to define problem, evaluate alternatives and choosing the optimal solutions lead to survive in the competitive market or improve organizational performance. Identifying and categorizing influences will lead to a general framework for any decision makers which can consider them in different types of organizations to maximize value and utility.

Introduction

Decision making could be approach of life for directors. Though everybody makes some choices, administrative are paid to form selections. Their main responsibility lies in creating decisions instead of playing routine operations. The standard of the selections created could be a predominant think about however the superintendent, as an example, views a principal's performance, or a principal views a head or team leader’s performance. Moreover, deciding affects the performance of organization and also the welfare of its stakeholders: client, owners, suppliers, and also the community.

Decision making is a critical thinking process of making a choice from a number of alternatives to achieve a desired result .This definition has three key basics. First, decision making involves making a choice from amount of possibilities. Second, decision making is a process that involves more than simply a final choice from among alternatives. Finally, the "desired result" mentioned in the definition involves a purpose or target resulting from the mental activity that the decision maker engages in to reach a final decision according to (Eisenfuhr, 2011).

Professional decision making is assumed to be rational. That mean the administrators make decisions under certainty: They know how identifying the problem and understanding the problem situation; they know their alternatives; they know their outcomes; they know their decision criteria; and they have the ability to make the optimum choice and then to implement it (Towler, 2010).

Rationality has been defined as the compatibility between choice and value. Rational behaviour seeks to optimize the value of the outcomes focusing on the process of choosing rather than emphasizing the selected alternative. for example (as cited in Hastie & Dawes, 2000) demonstrated that when decision makers follow rational methodologies, it is possible to derive numbers that represent personal values, which are termed utilities. As a result, alternatives with probabilistic consequences should be selected according to the magnitude of their expected utility, or value.

Organizations exist to achieve certain goals, Establishing these goals becomes the basis for identifying problem areas, deciding on sequences of action, and evaluating the decision outcomes. A decision is said to be effective if it helps decision maker to achieve a specific objective or set of goals for the Organization or Organization region. Failure to achieve a desired goal becomes a problem, and the decision maker is ultimately responsible for solving it. There is many model of decision making process affected by rationality According to the rational model when we know the problem, the decision making process can be broken down into four steps (Towler, 2010):

-Identifying the problem

-Generate and choose alternatives

-Implementing the Decision

-Evaluate the decision.

Identifying the problem

Rational decision makers are keenly aware of the importance of properly identifying the problem and understanding the problem situation. Kepner and Tregoe (2005) developed a method of problem analysis that suggests that the first step in rational decision making, identifying the problem, is the most important step. According to these authors, providing a good definition of the problem affects the quality of the decision. Their method suggests that it is often easier to define what the problem is not, rather than what it is. Also, the problem and its solution; are prioritized with other problems, to clarify its relative importance. The final step is searching for cause-effect relationships. However, their method of problem analysis includes: (1) problem identification, (2) definition of what the problem is and is not, (3) prioritizing the problem, and (4) testing for cause-effect relationships .The process of identifying problems requires surveillance of the internal and external environment for issues that merit attention according to (Kepner & Tregoe).

Generate and choose alternatives

Once the problem has been identified, the second step within the rational decision maker process is to generate and choose alternatives to the problem. In developing these alternative solutions, rational decision maker initial should specify the goals that they hope to attain through their decision. Are they attempting to reduce the west rate, improve the quality, or something else? Once rational decision maker have determined their goals, they will seek for various suggests that of reaching them. Information must be collected concerning each of the alternatives and their possible consequences. a lot of specifically, rational decision maker should seek to learn the maximum amount as attainable regarding the chance that every alternative can lead to the achievement of assorted outcomes, and also the extent to that those outcomes can contribute to the achievement of the goals and objectives being wanted. However the more important the decision, the more attention is directed to developing alternatives. Furthermore all the alternatives generated ought to be evaluated. Rational decision maker should raise the following 3 questions: (1) "Is the alternative feasible?" (2) "Is it a satisfactory alternative?" (3) "What impact can it wear people?" (Grant, 2011). On the one hand, even a mediocre resolution to the matter could prove effective if it's enforced with enthusiasm and commitment. Also, a technically correct alternative could fail to succeed if implementation is halfhearted.

Once the rational decision maker has evaluated all of the alternatives, he tries to settle on the most effective alternative. The analysis part can have eliminated a number of the alternatives, however in most cases tow or more can remain .One approach is to pick out the alternative that's possible, satisfactory (Gilboa, 2011) as a result of most situations don't lend themselves to classy mathematical analysis. Finally, the premise of judgment ought to be how close the outcomes or consequences of the alternatives come to achieving the specified goals of the Organization. Rational decision making is also able to select many alternatives at the same time. For example: One strategy that's frequently used is to offer the position to at least one candidate and keep the other candidate on hold. Ought to the first offer be rejected, the principal still has a suitable various to filling the position

Implementing the Decision

After choosing an alternative, the rational decision maker faces the challenge of implementing the decision. A sound decision can fail if implemented poorly. It is useful, therefore, to consider some suggestions for successful implementation (Ahmed, 2011).

- Rational decision maker need to make sure that the alternative is clearly understood. This is accomplished by communicating the decision to all involved staff. Effective communication is necessary for effectively implementing decisions.

- Rational decision maker need to provide enough resources to make the alternative succeed. Decision maker set up budgets and schedules for the actions they have decided to undertake

- Rational decision maker need to consign responsibilities clearly. In other words, what should be done by whom? Because the solution of most administrative problems requires the combined effort of many organization members, each person should understand what role he or she is to play during each phase of the implementation process.

Evaluate the decision.

The final step in the Rational decision making process is evaluating the success of the decision. When an implemented decision does not produce the desired results, there are probably a number of causes: incorrect definition of the problem, poor evaluation of alternatives, and/or improper implementation. Among these possible causes, the most common and serious error is an inadequate definition of the problem. When the problem is incorrectly defined, the alternative that is selected and implemented will not produce the desired result. However evaluation is important because rational decision making process is a continuous, never-ending process. The decision alternative may fail, thus generating a new analysis of the problem, evaluation of alternatives, and selection of a new alternative. Some experts suggest that many large problems are solved by attempting several alternatives in sequence, each providing a modest improvement (Hicks, 2005). Evaluation is the part of the rational decision making process that assesses whether a new decision needs to be made.

In rational decision-making models, decision makers analyse a number of possible alternatives from different scenarios before selecting a choice. These scenarios are weighed by probabilities, and decision makers can determine the expected scenario for each alternative. The final choice would be the one presenting the best-expected scenario and with the highest probability of outcome. Normative processes of decision explain how decision makers employ a particular set of alternatives to solve problems ( Hoch, Kunreuther, & Gunther, 2001).

Carnegie Model

this model appropriate when we don’t know what is the problem so we look for themes or when we don’t have problem at all but we try to improve and develop the organization according to Ph.D Ahmad Faisal .This model Developed by Richard,and Herbert Simon at Carnegie-Mellon University based on bounded rationality approach, organizational level decisions concerned several organization members and final selection was supported alliance among organization members, Reason being organizational objectives are ambiguous and operative goals square measure unpredictable, decision maker tend to be rational however constraint by time, assets and mental capacities. in order that they form alliance, decisions created below this model is satisficing instead of optimizing problem solutions, means organizations settle for satisfying instead of optimizing resolution, decision makers are involved with immediate problems and short term solutions, in order that they interact in problematic search (looking around the immediate environment for solutions). On the other word Carnegie Model is rationality approach strategy of satisficing, a combined term for "satisfy" and "suffice." The options are generated by study and the first satisfactory choice is advised until a consensus is attained.

Hold joint discussion

And interpret goals

And problems

Share opinions

Establish problem

Priorities

Obtain social support

For problem, solution

Coalition Formation

Conflict

Search

Uncertainty

Information is

Limited

Managers have

Many constraints

Managers have

Diverse goals,

Opinions, values,

Experience

Conduct a simple,

Local search

Use established

Procedures if

Appropriate

Create a solution

If needed

Adopt the first

Alternative

That is acceptable

To the coalition

Satisficing

Bounded rationality:

Bounded rationality takes into account the many Limitations of decision makers. in knowledge or skills in decision making or Organizational Routines to achieve organization goal according to Ph.D Ahmad Faisal.

-Knowledge:

Knowledge refers to the accumulation of information and the mental structures used to organize that information. Moreover Knowledge has positive impact on how rational decision maker engage in problem solving. It is knowledge and expertise that make it possible for organization members to think about complex system issues and identify possible strategies for appropriate decision. Furthermore, this capacity allows decision makers to use past cases and incidents for rational decision making according to Hesselbein, F& Somerville (2002).

In some decisions, lack of knowledge (or facts) is a binding constraint in rational decision making, but a narrow emphasis on increasing this knowledge can incomprehensible the importance of judgment. However, most decisions are primarily based only indirectly on these facts. Instead, they arise from the theories and frameworks for how the world works that arise from these facts as well as from each decision maker’s experience. Zopounidis, C. (2011). Knowledge of needs and options and solid logics for incorporating this information to predict policy effects are a base for rational decision making. On the other hand Individual decisions are not objective. They are subjective. This is because the decisions depend on the knowledge, education, experience, of the decision maker. Subjective decisions are not rational decisions

-Organizational Habits and Routines:

Limits of rational decision makers related to limits on the ability of the organization to adapt its environment. Organizations tended to adopt task performance guidelines, which routinized even the most significant decisions of the organization .Organizations routinized value and output decisions. Learning in organizations seemed to be a slow, evolutionary.

Routines in organizations always generated unintended consequences, many of which went unrecognized or unaddressed. Rather than the immediate adjustment process that rational organization theory would imply. Participants identified with the rules of the organization, adhering to them even in the face of evidence of problems (Hofstede, G. 1997). This could cause disjoint "lurches" as organizations were finally forced to adjust to changes in their environments.

-Limited Analysis:

Before making a decision the rational decision maker should evaluate all the alternatives. He should study the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative. Then only he should select the best alternative. However, most decision makers do not do this because they do not get an accurate information and data, and they have limited time. Inexpert researchers and wrong sampling also result in a limited analysis. This limited analysis lead to wrong decisions

Conclusion



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