Marketwise Price Behaviour Of Onion In Maharashtra

Published Date: 02 Nov 2017

ABSTRACT

Assistant Professor (ABM)

School of Agri-Business Management, Nagpur

Price of onion has been a burning topic in this year. Shortage of onion supply in spot market leads to higher variation in prices. The higher prices of onion has major influenced the food inflation rate. The Competition Commission of India(CCI) had made enquiry in sudden raise in onion prices. It is said that the decision of the Lasalgaon market traders are more responsible for raising onion prices. The government has made efforts to control the price and provide optimum supply. The government imported onions from neighbour countries viz; Pakistan and reduced import duties. A private trading company i.e. Hindustan trading imported Chinese onion. As the onion is basic ingredient in Indian dishes, its demand is less elastic. The value of annual onion production is ranges around Rs. 200-1 lakh crores in Indian market.

It is very surprising that the prices of onion ranges from Rs.100 (Min) to Rs. 8000 per quintal(Max). Looking to the price variation in onion prices and its annual volume of trade, the present study is selected with following objectives.

1. To compare the marketwise price indices for onion

2. To estimate the impact of arrival on prices

3. To forecast the onion prices

From the results, it is observed that the In some market Kada, Malegaon, Manmad, Newasa, Pimpalgaon and Satana market has shown growth in price indices of non-red onions. While the other markets and red onion has shown decline in price indices. Overall in all markets the prices are declined significantly due to higher arrivals. Lasalgaon has been main market for onion, the price declined in Lasalgaon market by Rs. 0.37 significantly with arrival of a tone. In most of the cases, the arrival of red onion affect price non-significantly. The forecasted price for subsequent five trading days from the last date of trading are found significantly true and when these prices are matches with actual trading prices, it fitted in the actual minimum and maximum price band as well as very closed to actual model price. But as the period goes on, the forecasted prices are not consistent with actual trading price because the change in policy of the government and private trading organisation

Marketwise Price Behaviour of Onion in Maharashtra

Dr. Sangita Warade

Onion is one of the cash crop in Indian Agriculture. It is basic ingredient in Indian dishes. It is perishable and it is bulky stock to store. Onion production is around 13.00 million tons annually and second largest producer in the world after china. Kharif production is 40-50 percent and rabi production is 50-60 percent. Area of onion in the country is 7.57 lakh hectares and productivity is 16.00 ton per hectare (Directorate of Econ & Stat-2010-11). Major onion producing state in the country is Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Gujrat. Maharashtra produces shares 30-40 percent in Indian production. India export onion 1.16 million tons to Gulf and Europe countries, Malaysia, Japan, Bangladesh and Shri-Lanka. India has pushed production through onion and garlic research centres and export through NAFED and different cooperatives. India exports onion since 1952 with 5000 tonnes per annum. It fetch foreign exchange for country.

Price of onion has been a burning topic in this year. Shortage of onion supply in spot market leads to higher variation in prices. The higher prices of onion has major influenced the food inflation rate. The Competition Commission of India(CCI) had made enquiry in sudden raise in onion prices. It is said that the decision of the Lasalgaon market traders are more responsible for raising onion prices. The government has made efforts to control the price and provide optimum supply. The government imported onions from neighbour countries viz; Pakistan and reduced import duties. A private trading company i.e. Hindustan trading imported Chinese onion. As the onion is basic ingredient in Indian dishes, its demand is less elastic. Seedlings production is also suffered due to unseasonal rainfall. The value of annual onion production is ranges around Rs. 200-1 lakh crores in Indian market.

It is very surprising that the prices of onion ranges from Rs.100(Min) to Rs. 8000 per quintal(Max). Looking to the price variation in onion prices and its annual volume of trade, the present study is selected with following objectives.

Objectives of study:

To compare the marketwise price indices for onion

2. To estimate the impact of arrival on prices

3. To forecast the onion prices

Hypotheses:

It is hypothesed that the price indices of onion are increasing over the period of time.

It will guide the researcher in price study and different study related to onion. It will be also helpful to avoid risk as well as making future contract.

______________________________________________________________________________________

Dr. Sangita Warade, Assistant Professor (ABM), School of Agri-Business Management, Nagpur

Methodology :

Data and Market:

To accomplish the objectives, the daily recorded data on prices and arrivals are collected from the period Jan 2010 to Feb 2011 from the government published website i.e. www.agmarknet.com. The price data is collected for minimum price, maximum price and model price. The data is collected for 24 major markets of the Maharashtra state as follows.

Table no.1: Major Markets in Maharashtra selected for study

S.No.

Market

Type of onion traded

Western Maharashtra Region

1

Ahmednagar

Non-Red onion

2

Junnar(Otur) (Ahmednagar)

Non-Red onion

3

Kada (Ahmednagar)

Red, Non-Red onion

4

Khed(Chakan)

Non-Red onion

5

Lasalgaon(Nasik)

Red, Non-Red onion

6

Malegaon(Nasik)

Red, Non-Red onion

7

Malegaon(Umarane) (Nasik)

Red, Non-Red onion

8

Manmad(Nasik)

Red, Non-Red onion

9

Nandgaon(Nasik)

Red, Non-Red onion

10

Newasa(Ghodegaon) (Ahmednagar)

Red, Non-Red onion

11

Pimpalgaon(Nasik)

Non-Red onion

12

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda) (Nasik)

Non-Red onion

13

Pune

Non-Red onion

14

Rahata(Ahmednagar)

Non-Red onion

15

Rahuri(Ahmednagar)

Red, Non-Red onion

16

Sangamner(Ahmednagar)

Non-Red onion

17

Satana(Nasik)

Red, Non-Red onion

18

Shrirampur(Ahmednagar)

Non-Red onion

19

Sinner(Nasik)

Non-Red onion

20

Solapur

Non-Red onion

21

Yeola(Nasik)

Red, Non-Red onion

Konkan Region

22

Mumbai

Non-Red onion

23

Vashi New Mumbai

Non-Red onion

Vidarbha Region

24

Nagpur

Red, Non-Red onion

Major Markets are selected on the basis of arrivals in the market. It is observed from the divisions made of the major markets in Maharashtra that the majority of the onion markets are located in Western Maharashtra (Ahmednagar and Nasik districts) of Maharashtra State.

Analytical Methods

The objective-wise methods used for analysis are given as below

To compare the marketwise price indices for onion

To estimate the marketwise price indices for onion Chain-based Ideal Index is fitted

Link Relative = Price of current day/price previously traded day X 100

Price Index = (link relative of current day X link relative of previously traded day)/ 100

Triennial (3 days) average is taken to estimate base

To estimate the impact of arrival on prices

Simple and Non-linear function will be fitted for the estimating the impact of arrivals on prices considering other factors at constant level.

Simple Linear Function Y = a+bX,

Non-linear Function Y = aXb

Y = Price, X = arrival

And "a" = constant , "b" = coefficient of arrivals

Triennial (3 days) average is taken to estimate base

3. To forecast the onion prices

The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model(ARIMA model) is fitted considering the significant lags from Auto-correlations(ACF) and Partial Autocorrelations(PACF).

ARIMA Model

Pt = a+ b1Pt-1 + b2Pt-2……bnPt-n + ut + c1ut-1 + c2ut-2…..cnut-n

_____AR_____________ ________MA___________

Pt, = Price at current traded day

Pt-1 = Price at previous traded day(lag term)

Coefficients: a, b1,b2 of lag price term

ut = Error term on current traded day

ut-1 = Error term of previous day(lag term)

Coefficients: c1, cn of lag price term

The function is fitted on the basis of knowing stationary of the series. If the series is non-stationery, then it is integrated by differencing and made it stationery. (Reference: Forecasting methods and applications by Makridakis, Whedlwright and Hyndman)

Result and Discussion:

The results regarding price indices, price and arrival relationship and forecasted onion prices obtained from analysis are presented and discussed in this section subsequently.

Price Indices of Onion

The results of price indices (chain-based price index) for minimum, maximum and model prices as well as arrivals are presented in table no.2.

The table no.2 revealed that the red onion is traded only in 11 markets other than non-red onion. The indices of in prices of onion over the trade of the January 2010 have shown contradictory growth and decline. In some market Kada, Malegaon, Manmad, Newasa, Pimpalgaon and Satana market has shown growth in price indices of non-red onions. While the other markets and red onion has shown decline in price indices. The results also revealed that the arrival indices have been on higher side. The decline in most of the markets is due to the position of higher prices in January 2011, which were decline in February 2011 due to government control policy.

Impact of arrivals of onion on the price.

The impact of the arrivals on prices of onion analyzed by simple regression is presented in table no.3 (a & b). The regression coefficient indicates that increase in price due to increase in arrival by one tone of onion. The most sensitive market for price change due to arrival is Nagpur, the model price in Nagpur was changed by Rs.3.67 due arrival in market for non-red onion. The same trend was observed for red onion in Nagpur. It is followed by Pimapalgaon(Sykheda) i.e. Rs 1.89 per change in a tone. As compared minimum price and model price, the maximum price has shown higher due to change in arrival. Overall in all markets the prices are declined significantly due to higher arrivals. Lasalgaon has been main market for onion, the price declined in Lasalgaon market by Rs. 0.37 significantly with arrival of a tone. In most of the cases, the arrival of red onion affect price non-significantly.

The impact of the arrivals on prices of onion analyzed by non-linear regression is presented in table no.4 (a & b). The Malegaon(Umarane) has shown highest declined in price due arrival i.e. Rs. 0.93. It is followed by Rahata market i.e. Rs.0.85. In case of red onion as compared to non-red onion the price and arrival relationship was found low significant. The lowest significant impact of arrival on price was observed in Sinner market.

Table no.2: Price Indices of the Major Markets in Maharashtra for year 2010

(Chain-base Index)

S.No

Market

Type of Onion

No. of trading days

Index

Arrival

Minimum Price

Maximum Price

Model Price

Western Maharashtra Region

1

Admed nagar

Non-Red

92

191.52

40.00

63.08

66.67

2

Junnar(Otur)

Non-Red

46

122.63

33.33

41.25

42.86

3

Kada

Non-Red

50

287.79

175.00

94.12

113.46

4

Kada

Red

23

195.56

50.00

60.00

55.56

5

Khed(Chakan)

Non-Red

31

195.00

50.00

43.33

42.00

6

Lasalgaon

Non-Red

178

67.06

100.00

72.00

76.67

7

Lasalgaon

Red

91

80.73

80.00

76.79

75.00

8

Malegaon

Non-Red

62

285.71

190.48

174.06

170.37

9

Malegaon

Red

63

177.69

71.43

70.00

64.00

10

Malegaon(Umarane)

Non-Red

112

52.65

146.47

281.88

259.26

11

Malegaon(Umarane)

Red

45

141.67

70.20

80.08

86.36

12

Manmad

Non-Red

72

21666.67

459.08

124.32

170.37

13

Manmad

Red

100

109.09

100.00

76.08

73.91

14

Nandgaon

Non-Red

132

352.47

50.00

85.76

81.48

15

Nandgaon

Red

15

159.63

90.00

108.40

135.00

16

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Non-Red

73

52.34

133.33

185.00

148.15

17

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Red

26

158.75

66.67

63.64

62.50

18

Pimpalgaon

Non-Red

68

76.70

100.00

114.99

133.97

19

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda)

Non-Red

186

112.11

233.33

93.82

149.67

20

Pune

Non-Red

234

128.98

71.43

72.22

72.00

21

Rahata

Non-Red

74

119.89

50.00

37.50

32.00

22

Rahuri

Non-Red

134

255.74

50.00

25.98

41.18

23

Rahuri

Red

43

125.00

75.00

85.00

90.00

24

Sangamner

Non-Red

145

280.15

250.00

83.35

89.59

25

Satana

Non-Red

83

46.32

235.29

107.44

84.93

26

Satana

Red

72

86.42

150.00

94.52

113.21

27

Shrirampur

Non-Red

78

100.44

44.44

42.19

42.86

28

Sinner

Non-Red

260

220.50

20.00

76.92

78.57

29

Solapur

Non-Red

98

84.54

100.00

93.75

90.00

30

Yeola

Non-Red

96

81.27

100.00

80.12

81.25

31

Yeola

Red

151

387.14

100.00

78.01

86.96

Konkan Region

32

Mumbai

Non-Red

310

49.24

88.89

93.33

91.67

33

Vashi New Mumbai

Non-Red

211

116.75

90.00

90.00

90.00

Vidarbha Region

34

Nagpur

Non-Red

323

95.68

88.89

90.91

90.00

35

Nagpur

Red

323

95.68

100.00

78.57

86.99

Table No.3(a): Impact of arrival on prices by Simple linear regression method

S.No

Market

Type of Onion

Simple Linear Regression Coefficient

Minimum Price

Maximum Price

Model Price

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Western Maharashtra Region

1

Admed nagar

Non-Red

636.86

-0.17***

-4.09

3266.23

-0.82***

-4.57

1944.54

-0.49***

-4.58

2

Junnar(Otur)

Non-Red

1932.84

-1.40***

-4.43

2816.88

-1.52***

-4.14

2500.27

-1.39***

-4.14

3

Kada

Non-Red

239.71

-0.09**

-2.04

1407.20

-0.36**

-1.71

1095.39

-0.32**

-2.17

4

Kada

Red

344.64

-0.06

-0.29

3068.51

-1.87**

-2.03

1982.50

-1.08**

-1.80

5

Khed(Chakan)

Non-Red

704.57

-0.14***

-2.65

3247.77

-1.13***

-4.49

2305.39

-0.73***

-4.53

6

Lasalgaon

Non-Red

405.37

-0.06***

-2.16

1945.76

-0.44***

-3.08

1566.64

-0.37***

-3.61

7

Lasalgaon

Red

346.88

0.02

0.43

2326.55

-0.12

-0.53

1379.28

0.10

0.72

8

Malegaon

Non-Red

188.00

0.21***

1.76

622.47

0.68**

2.06

564.99

0.49**

1.73

9

Malegaon

Red

588.90

-0.43***

-5.52

3354.47

-2.92***

-7.71

2021.64

-1.51***

-5.64

10

Malegaon(Umarane)

Non-Red

371.99

0.06

0.99

1072.07

0.03

0.23

909.03

-0.01

-0.10

11

Malegaon(Umarane)

Red

812.07

-0.32***

-4.14

4564.78

-2.46***

-6.00

2599.78

-1.27***

-5.15

12

Manmad

Non-Red

528.52

-0.05

-0.17

1378.26

-0.50

-1.52

1180.17

-0.38

-1.22

13

Manmad

Red

811.23

-0.47***

-4.19

2828.31

-1.85***

-5.02

2125.53

-1.29***

-5.01

14

Nandgaon

Non-Red

496.28

-0.20***

-3.13

1740.42

-0.84***

-4.10

1317.42

-0.59***

-4.38

15

Nandgaon

Red

585.49

-0.41

-1.04

2292.32

-1.69*

-2.04

1228.81

-0.25

-0.31

16

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Non-Red

349.81

-0.13***

-3.21

1840.97

-0.32***

-2.75

1337.47

-0.22***

-3.04

17

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Red

439.57

-0.08

-1.02

7270.23

-3.31***

-7.29

3795.26

-1.46***

-5.30

18

Pimpalgaon

Non-Red

1023.55

-0.33***

-6.20

4276.60

-1.91***

-8.16

2527.78

-1.00***

-7.12

19

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda)

Non-Red

457.20

0.07

0.76

2483.13

-3.69***

-11.58

1601.15

-1.89***

-10.85

20

Pune

Non-Red

1294.35

-0.25***

-4.00

2567.28

-0.56***

-3.67

1933.32

-0.41***

-3.84

Note: * Significant at 10 percent ** Significant at 5 percent *** Significant at 1 percent.

S.No

Market

Type of Onion

Simple Linear Regression Coefficient

Minimum Price

Maximum Price

Model Price

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

21

Rahata

Non-Red

563.38

-0.32***

-6.78

3000.32

-1.70***

-6.30

1932.85

-1.04***

-6.83

22

Rahuri

Non-Red

313.35

-0.14

-3.10

2253.98

-0.77***

-8.08

1266.40

-0.45***

-7.43

23

Rahuri

Red

195.23

0.02

0.50

2512.58

0.12

0.22

1349.36

-0.18

-0.71

24

Sangamner

Non-Red

542.21

-0.47***

-4.88

3047.41

-1.98***

-9.77

1783.27

-1.21***

-9.55

25

Satana

Non-Red

603.18

-0.17*

-1.36

2161.23

-0.77**

-1.89

1711.97

-0.47*

-1.48

26

Satana

Red

357.24

0.06

0.42

2663.16

-1.54**

-2.26

2020.97

-1.05**

-2.08

27

Shrirampur

Non-Red

693.29

-0.42***

-5.26

2818.05

-1.63***

-6.55

1836.42

-1.03***

-6.43

28

Sinner

Non-Red

191.86

-0.11***

-4.16

1608.23

-0.67***

-3.60

1028.82

-0.29***

-3.07

29

Solapur

Non-Red

127.29

0.03

0.91

2706.77

0.32*

1.34

824.11

0.13**

2.27

30

Yeola

Non-Red

594.43

-0.20***

-4.46

1609.71

-0.69***

-5.05

1385.20

-0.59***

-4.92

31

Yeola

Red

499.27

-0.06***

-4.02

2670.15

-0.89***

-7.92

1908.04

-0.57***

-6.83

Konkan Region

32

Mumbai

Non-Red

1302.84

-0.25**

-2.00

2209.99

-0.44***

-1.75

1741.45

-0.33**

-1.80

33

Vashi New Mumbai

Non-Red

1531.22

-0.47***

-3.01

2620.17

-0.77***

-2.44

2078.51

-0.63***

-2.69

Vidarbha Region

34

Nagpur

Non-Red

1699.11

-2.97***

-8.93

2286.03

-4.38***

-9.44

1992.18

-3.67***

-9.37

35

Nagpur

Red

1532.45

-2.61***

-7.99

2149.52

-4.04***

-8.92

1841.04

-3.32***

-8.66

Table No.3(b): Impact of arrival on prices by Simple linear regression method

Note: * Significant at 10 percent ** Significant at 5 percent *** Significant at 1 percent.

S.No

Market

Type of Onion

Non-Linear Regression Coefficient

Minimum Price

Maximum Price

Model Price

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Western Maharashtra Region

1

Admed nagar

Non-Red

1324.60

-0.23**

-1.80

10003.65

-0.26***

-2.67

5666.18

-0.26***

-2.56

2

Junnar(Otur)

Non-Red

1252890.64

-1.22***

-5.09

119485.33

-0.69***

-5.66

132982.41

-0.73***

-5.60

3

Kada

Non-Red

2012.40

-0.42***

-3.74

9744.99

-0.36***

-4.43

8652.50

-0.38***

-4.54

4

Kada

Red

225.42

0.02

0.12

8267.08

-0.25**

-2.09

225.42

0.02

0.12

5

Khed(Chakan)

Non-Red

1085.16

-0.12***

-2.45

12629.75

-0.31***

-5.92

7681.26

-0.28***

-5.21

6

Lasalgaon

Non-Red

964.70

-0.17***

-4.42

3469.67

-0.15***

-3.03

3125.23

-0.17***

-3.45

7

Lasalgaon

Red

277.72

0.02

0.48

1407.08

0.04

0.65

703.23

0.09**

1.79

8

Malegaon

Non-Red

209.81

0.04

0.21

472.91

0.11

0.64

599.96

0.04

0.24

9

Malegaon

Red

13026.03

-0.61***

-5.34

189824.14

-0.79***

-7.34

36685.66

-0.58***

-5.70

10

Malegaon(Umarane)

Non-Red

265.12

0.06

0.46

709.20

0.05

0.49

777.78

0.01

0.07

11

Malegaon(Umarane)

Red

25507.02

-0.60***

-5.11

6028831.63

-1.21***

-7.59

599457.04

-0.93***

-6.71

12

Manmad

Non-Red

816.77

-0.11**

-1.73

1611.96

-0.07*

-1.45

1369.40

-0.06*

-1.31

13

Manmad

Red

1689.14

-0.20***

-4.48

4140.59

-0.16***

-2.65

3199.76

-0.16***

-2.84

14

Nandgaon

Non-Red

1875.80

-0.30***

-5.08

8743.38

-0.35***

-6.65

5159.92

-0.30***

-5.96

15

Nandgaon

Red

3371.37

-0.36*

-1.46

9163.39

-0.29**

-2.23

1082.01

0.00

0.02

16

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Non-Red

1428.68

-0.35***

-7.65

2361.71

-0.09**

-1.74

2098.82

-0.12***

-2.50

17

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Red

5377.08

-0.42**

-1.87

1419655.50

-0.88***

-7.57

203145.65

-0.67***

-4.99

18

Pimpalgaon

Non-Red

2059.58

-0.20***

-2.91

23019.11

-0.41***

-4.26

8076.00

-0.30***

-3.54

19

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda)

Non-Red

330.91

0.05**

1.65

5462.04

-0.29***

-9.54

3028.34

-0.22***

-8.73

20

Pune

Non-Red

5026.03

-0.25***

-3.80

11390.44

-0.29***

-3.27

8075.50

-0.27***

-3.43

Table No.4(a): Impact of arrival on prices by non-linear regression method

Note: * Significant at 10 percent ** Significant at 5 percent *** Significant at 1 percent.

Table No.4(b): Impact of arrival on prices by non-linear regression method

S.No

Market

Type of Onion

Non-Linear Regression Coefficient

Minimum Price

Maximum Price

Model Price

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

Constant

Coefficient

t value

21

Rahata

Non-Red

113288.17

-0.92***

-9.39

521969.79

-0.90***

-7.83

257444.70

-0.85***

-8.03

22

Rahuri

Non-Red

705.25

-0.27***

-7.84

9041.86

-0.30***

-9.78

5225.18

-0.31***

-10.54

23

Rahuri

Red

136.63

0.05

0.76

1484.65

0.08*

1.37

1029.42

0.02

0.46

24

Sangamner

Non-Red

7369.02

-0.64***

-8.61

92555.11

-0.65***

-13.09

60138.02

-0.68***

-13.94

25

Satana

Non-Red

624.00

-0.08

-0.68

2860.10

-0.12

-1.17

1805.54

-0.07

-0.72

26

Satana

Red

561.70

-0.10

-0.77

7675.43

-0.25**

-2.00

4944.42

-0.22**

-1.86

27

Shrirampur

Non-Red

4240.45

-0.44***

-7.14

16340.86

-0.40***

-11.65

9997.12

-0.39***

-10.04

28

Sinner

Non-Red

387.65

-0.20***

-5.48

2284.76

-0.12***

-2.85

1440.68

-0.10***

-2.70

29

Solapur

Non-Red

80.42

0.06

0.77

762.18

0.18**

2.26

350.45

0.14**

2.29

30

Yeola

Non-Red

2128.35

-0.26***

-5.09

8196.85

-0.34***

-5.41

6710.56

-0.33***

-5.15

31

Yeola

Red

934.18

-0.12***

-4.11

45420.81

-0.52***

-10.27

17331.25

-0.41***

-8.25

32

Konkan Region

33

Mumbai

Non-Red

1008.54

-0.01

-0.26

1226.93

0.03

0.45

1084.93

0.01

0.25

34

Vashi New Mumbai

Non-Red

1240.20

-0.04

-0.88

1506.49

0.00

-0.02

1360.43

-0.02

-0.31

35

Vidarbha Region

Nagpur

Non-Red

16737.39

-0.56***

-11.00

26456.03

-0.60***

-11.67

21571.94

-0.58***

-11.48

Nagpur

Red

12705.22

-0.52***

-9.99

22644.92

-0.58***

-11.23

17597.42

-0.56***

-10.87

Note: * Significant at 10 percent ** Significant at 5 percent *** Significant at 1 percent.

Table no 5: R Square of of Linear and Non-Linear Regression Function

Market

Variety

Linear Regression

Non-Linear Regression

Price:

 

Min

Max

Model

Min

Max

Model

Ahmednagar

Other

0.157

0.188

0.189

0.035

0.074

0.068

Junnar(Otur)

Other

0.309

0.280

0.281

0.371

0.421

0.416

Kada

Other

0.080

0.057

0.090

0.225

0.290

0.300

Kada

Red

0.004

0.164

0.134

0.001

0.173

0.001

Khed(Chakan)

Other

0.195

0.410

0.414

0.171

0.547

0.483

Lasalgaon

Other

0.026

0.051

0.069

0.100

0.050

0.063

Lasalgaon

Red

0.002

0.003

0.006

0.003

0.005

0.035

Malegaon

Other

0.049

0.066

0.047

0.001

0.007

0.001

Malegaon

Red

0.333

0.494

0.343

0.318

0.469

0.347

Malegaon(Umarane)

Other

0.009

0.000

0.000

0.002

0.002

0.000

Malegaon(Umarane)

Red

0.285

0.456

0.381

0.378

0.573

0.512

Manmad

Other

0.000

0.032

0.021

0.041

0.029

0.024

Manmad

Red

0.152

0.205

0.204

0.170

0.067

0.076

Mumbai

Other

0.013

0.010

0.010

0.000

0.001

0.000

Nagpur

Other

0.199

0.217

0.215

0.274

0.298

0.291

Nagpur

Red

0.166

0.199

0.189

0.237

0.282

0.269

Nandgaon

Other

0.070

0.115

0.128

0.166

0.254

0.215

Nandgaon

Red

0.077

0.243

0.007

0.140

0.276

0.000

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Other

0.127

0.096

0.115

0.452

0.041

0.081

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Red

0.042

0.689

0.539

0.127

0.705

0.509

Pimpalgaon

Other

0.368

0.502

0.435

0.113

0.216

0.159

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda)

Other

0.003

0.421

0.390

0.015

0.331

0.293

Pune

Other

0.065

0.055

0.060

0.059

0.044

0.048

Rahata

Other

0.390

0.355

0.393

0.551

0.460

0.472

Rahuri

Other

0.068

0.331

0.295

0.318

0.420

0.457

Rahuri

Red

0.006

0.001

0.012

0.014

0.044

0.005

Sangamner

Other

0.143

0.400

0.389

0.341

0.545

0.576

Satana

Other

0.022

0.042

0.026

0.006

0.017

0.006

Satana

Red

0.002

0.068

0.058

0.008

0.054

0.047

Shrirampur

Other

0.267

0.361

0.353

0.401

0.641

0.570

Sinner

Other

0.063

0.048

0.035

0.104

0.030

0.028

Solapur

Other

0.009

0.018

0.051

0.006

0.051

0.052

Vashi New Mumbai

Other

0.042

0.028

0.033

0.004

0.000

0.000

Yeola

Other

0.118

0.146

0.140

0.148

0.164

0.151

Yeola

Red

0.146

0.400

0.332

0.152

0.529

0.420

Forecasting of onion prices:

The ACF and PACF patterns of prices and residuals of prices are estimated. The significant lags are identified and according to ARIMA model is fitted for selected markets. The table no.6 represent the ARIMA Model Parameter for selected markets in Maharashtra. The forecasting estimates indicate that the Malegaon red onion, Nagpur red and non-red onion, Nandgaon red and non-red onion, Pimpalgaon non-red onion, pune non-red onion, sinner non-red onion, vashi non-red onion, yeola red onion, nevasa red and non-red onion, satana and rahuri non-red onion have shown significant forecasting autoregressive and moving average estimates.

Table no. 6: ARIMA Model Parameter for selected markets in Maharashtra

S. No.

Market

Model

 

AR

Difference

MA

 

 

 

Constant

Lag 1

Lag 1

 

Western Maharashtra Region

 

 

 

 

 

1

kada_non-red-Model_1

ARIMA(1,1,1)

20.217

-0.37

1

0.45*

2

khed_ non-red -Model_2

ARIMA(1,1,1)

-13.393

-0.023

1

-0.242

3

lasalgv_ non-red -Model_3

ARIMA(1,1,1)

6.054

0.021

1

0.308

4

malegv_red-Model_4

ARIMA(1,1,1)

2.916

0.912***

1

0.998

5

manmad_ non-red -Model_5

ARIMA(1,1,1)

25.241

-0.072

1

0.339

6

nandgv_ non-red -Model_9

ARIMA(1,1,1)

10.528

0.586***

1

0.873***

7

pimplgv_B_ non-red -Model_10

ARIMA(1,1,1)

4.614

0.4***

1

0.807***

8

pune_ non-red -Model_11

ARIMA(1,1,1)

-0.995

0.338***

1

0.749***

9

satana_ non-red -Model_12

ARIMA(1,1,1)

24.472

-0.287

1

0.089

10

shrirmpr_ non-red -Model_13

ARIMA(1,1,1)

-0.299

-0.045

1

0.175

11

sinnr_ non-red -Model_14

ARIMA(1,1,1)

0.459

0.374***

1

0.734***

12

yeola_rd-Model_16

ARIMA(1,1,1)

3.179

0.525**

1

0.752***

13

manmad_rd-Model_1

ARIMA(1,1,0)

-2.686

-0.299***

1

 

14

newasa_ non-red -Model_2

ARIMA(1,1,0)

5.591

-0.404***

1

 

15

newasa_rd-Model_3

ARIMA(1,1,0)

-13.196

-0.376**

1

 

16

rahuri_ non-red -Model_4

ARIMA(1,1,0)

-1.519

-0.151**

1

 

17

rahuri_rd-Model_5

ARIMA(1,1,0)

1.531

-0.341

1

 

18

satana_rd-Model_6

ARIMA(1,1,0)

0.335

-0.227**

1

 

19

yeola_ non-red -Model_7

ARIMA(1,1,0)

13.415

-0.057

1

 

 

Konkan Region

 

 

 

 

 

20

mumbai_ non-red -Model_6

ARIMA(1,1,1)

-0.302

0.488***

1

0.742***

21

vashi_ non-red -Model_15

ARIMA(1,1,1)

-0.005

0.649***

1

0.753***

 

Vidarbha Region

 

 

 

 

 

22

nag_ non-red -Model_7

ARIMA(1,1,1)

-0.761

-0.528**

1

-0.374*

23

nagp_rd-Model_8

ARIMA(1,1,1)

0.056

-0.578***

1

-0.293**

Note: * Significant at 10 percent ** Significant at 5 percent *** Significant at 1 percent.

The table no.7(a, b & c) represents the forecasted onion prices for selected markets, Prices of significantly fitted ARIMA model are estimated for next five trading days from last date of trading data selected as well as for prices of 5 actual trading days with minimum, maximum and model price. From the results it is observed that the forecasted price for subsequent five trading days from the last date of trading are found significantly true. The prices forecasted are varying from market to market. It indicates lack of communication in the markets dispersed over the locations. The forecasted price of onion ranges from Rs. 698 to 3118 from market to market. For red onion, it is showing low prices as compared to non-red onions. Out of 19 markets, 11 markets has showing the forecasted prices are near to the model price of actually traded onion on next trading days. When forecasted prices are matches with actual trading prices, it fitted in the minimum and maximum price band as well as very closed to actual model price. But as the period goes on, the forecasted prices are not consistent with actual trading price because the change in policy of the government and private trading organisation. As per news published in economic times, the onion is imported from Pakistan and China due to low arrival in market and higher volatility in onion prices.

Table no.7(a) : Forecasted onion prices for selected markets

S.No.

Last trading date

Market

Variety

Forecasted Price for next five trading days

Actual Price for next trading days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

 

Date

Month

Year

 

 

1

2

3

4

5

Min

Max

Model

Min

Max

Model

1

13

1

2011

Ahmednagar

Non-Red

2179.76

2025.23

1951.42

1916.91

1901.55

1000

5500

3300

400

4100

2500

2

2

2

2011

Kada

Non-Red

2226.72

2201.27

2238.38

2252.34

2274.88

350

1600

1475

NA

NA

NA

3

5

2

2011

Khed(Chakan)

Non-Red

1051.1

1037.37

1023.98

1010.59

997.2

750

1700

1250

500

1300

1050

4

19

1

2011

Lasalgaon

Non-Red

2409.74

2417.99

2424.09

2430.15

2436.2

500

3416

2700

500

3265

2700

5

8

2

2011

Malegaon

Red

835.23

867.6

897.36

924.75

949.97

250

800

650

100

835

650

6

22

11

2010

Manmad

Non-Red

2249.84

2280.49

2305.35

2330.62

2355.85

500

1800

1500

500

1701

1200

7

8

2

2011

Manmad

Red

861.48

854.55

853.14

850.07

847.5

300

792

700

200

790

670

8

12

1

2011

Nandgaon

Non-Red

2257.76

2295.95

2322.67

2342.69

2358.77

1000

3000

2200

500

1250

900

9

24

11

2010

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Non-Red

1785.8

1880.13

1849.89

1869.95

1869.7

300

3125

2100

NA

NA

NA

10

6

2

2011

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Red

1019.42

993.97

985.38

970.45

957.91

200

1000

800

200

1200

800

11

11

1

2011

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda)

Non-Red

2224.2

2116.1

2075.58

2062.11

2059.49

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

12

6

2

2011

Rahuri

Non-Red

698.25

696.77

695.24

693.73

692.21

200

1125

650

200

1200

700

13

1

2

2011

Rahuri

Red

936.12

925.87

931.41

931.58

933.57

100

1300

725

100

1100

600

14

30

12

2010

Satana

Non-Red

3118.35

3144.58

3168.55

3193.16

3217.59

1500

5500

3500

1500

3500

2500

15

2

2

2011

Satana

Red

1268.44

1253.33

1257.17

1256.71

1257.23

200

1155

950

200

1050

875

16

7

2

2011

Shrirampur

Non-Red

1023.1

1017.24

1017.19

1016.88

1016.59

300

1050

700

450

1285

900

17

2

2

2011

Vashi New Mumbai

Non-Red

1381.05

1401.19

1414.25

1422.72

1428.21

900

1500

1200

800

1400

1100

18

27

11

2010

Yeola

Non-Red

2642.71

2654.45

2667.96

2681.37

2694.79

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

19

7

2

2011

Yeola

Red

1084.77

1130.81

1156.51

1171.51

1180.9

400

1000

750

300

862

750

Table no.7(b) : Forecasted onion prices for selected markets

S.No.

Last trading date

Market

Variety

Forecasted Price for next five trading days

Actual Price for next trading days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3

4

 

Date

Month

Year

 

 

1

2

3

4

5

Min

Max

Model

Min

Max

Model

1

13

1

2011

Ahmednagar

Non-Red

2179.76

2025.23

1951.42

1916.91

1901.55

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

2

2

2

2011

Kada

Non-Red

2226.72

2201.27

2238.38

2252.34

2274.88

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

3

5

2

2011

Khed(Chakan)

Non-Red

1051.1

1037.37

1023.98

1010.59

997.2

600

1250

900

601

1201

1001

4

19

1

2011

Lasalgaon

Non-Red

2409.74

2417.99

2424.09

2430.15

2436.2

500

2752

2200

400

1712

1400

5

8

2

2011

Malegaon

Red

835.23

867.6

897.36

924.75

949.97

250

850

700

250

900

800

6

22

11

2010

Manmad

Non-Red

2249.84

2280.49

2305.35

2330.62

2355.85

300

1800

1200

300

1800

1200

7

8

2

2011

Manmad

Red

861.48

854.55

853.14

850.07

847.5

400

921

800

300

990

850

8

12

1

2011

Nandgaon

Non-Red

2257.76

2295.95

2322.67

2342.69

2358.77

200

1275

950

300

1500

1000

9

24

11

2010

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Non-Red

1785.8

1880.13

1849.89

1869.95

1869.7

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

10

6

2

2011

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Red

1019.42

993.97

985.38

970.45

957.91

200

1200

900

300

1100

800

11

11

1

2011

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda)

Non-Red

2224.2

2116.1

2075.58

2062.11

2059.49

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

12

6

2

2011

Rahuri

Non-Red

698.25

696.77

695.24

693.73

692.21

200

1300

700

100

1300

701

13

1

2

2011

Rahuri

Red

936.12

925.87

931.41

931.58

933.57

200

1300

600

200

800

451

14

30

12

2010

Satana

Non-Red

3118.35

3144.58

3168.55

3193.16

3217.59

1500

4500

3000

1000

4500

2750

15

2

2

2011

Satana

Red

1268.44

1253.33

1257.17

1256.71

1257.23

100

900

645

300

1205

950

16

7

2

2011

Shrirampur

Non-Red

1023.1

1017.24

1017.19

1016.88

1016.59

500

1300

850

450

1000

700

17

2

2

2011

Vashi New Mumbai

Non-Red

1381.05

1401.19

1414.25

1422.72

1428.21

800

1400

1100

800

1200

1000

18

27

11

2010

Yeola

Non-Red

2642.71

2654.45

2667.96

2681.37

2694.79

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

19

7

2

2011

Yeola

Red

1084.77

1130.81

1156.51

1171.51

1180.9

300

836

750

300

1001

870

Table no.7(c) : Forecasted onion prices for selected markets

S.No.

Last trading date

Market

Variety

Forecasted Price for next five trading days

Actual Price for next trading days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5

 

Date

Month

Year

 

 

1

2

3

4

5

Min

Max

Model

1

13

1

2011

Ahmednagar

Non-Red

2179.76

2025.23

1951.42

1916.91

1901.55

NA

NA

NA

2

2

2

2011

Kada

Non-Red

2226.72

2201.27

2238.38

2252.34

2274.88

NA

NA

NA

3

5

2

2011

Khed(Chakan)

Non-Red

1051.1

1037.37

1023.98

1010.59

997.2

700

1100

1000

4

19

1

2011

Lasalgaon

Non-Red

2409.74

2417.99

2424.09

2430.15

2436.2

400

1392

1250

5

8

2

2011

Malegaon

Red

835.23

867.6

897.36

924.75

949.97

200

975

825

6

22

11

2010

Manmad

Non-Red

2249.84

2280.49

2305.35

2330.62

2355.85

NA

NA

NA

7

8

2

2011

Manmad

Red

861.48

854.55

853.14

850.07

847.5

274

957

851

8

12

1

2011

Nandgaon

Non-Red

2257.76

2295.95

2322.67

2342.69

2358.77

300

1671

1400

9

24

11

2010

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Non-Red

1785.8

1880.13

1849.89

1869.95

1869.7

NA

NA

NA

10

6

2

2011

Newasa(Ghodegaon)

Red

1019.42

993.97

985.38

970.45

957.91

200

1000

800

11

11

1

2011

Pimpalgaon Baswant(Saykheda)

Non-Red

2224.2

2116.1

2075.58

2062.11

2059.49

NA

NA

NA

12

6

2

2011

Rahuri

Non-Red

698.25

696.77

695.24

693.73

692.21

NA

NA

NA

13

1

2

2011

Rahuri

Red

936.12

925.87

931.41

931.58

933.57

200

700

450

14

30

12

2010

Satana

Non-Red

3118.35

3144.58

3168.55

3193.16

3217.59

1500

4500

3000

15

2

2

2011

Satana

Red

1268.44

1253.33

1257.17

1256.71

1257.23

300

1120

950

16

7

2

2011

Shrirampur

Non-Red

1023.1

1017.24

1017.19

1016.88

1016.59

200

675

400

17

2

2

2011

Vashi New Mumbai

Non-Red

1381.05

1401.19

1414.25

1422.72

1428.21

NA

NA

NA

18

27

11

2010

Yeola

Non-Red

2642.71

2654.45

2667.96

2681.37

2694.79

NA

NA

NA

19

7

2

2011

Yeola

Red

1084.77

1130.81

1156.51

1171.51

1180.9

300

1151

950

Conclusion:

From the results, it is revealed that the In some market Kada, Malegaon, Manmad, Newasa, Pimpalgaon and Satana market has shown growth in price indices of non-red onions. While the other markets and red onion has shown decline in price indices. Overall in all markets the prices are declined significantly due to higher arrivals. Lasalgaon has been main market for onion, the price declined in Lasalgaon market by Rs. 0.37 significantly with arrival of a tone. In most of the cases, the arrival of red onion affect price non-significantly. The forecasted price for subsequent five trading days from the last date of trading are found significantly true and when these prices are matches with actual trading prices, it fitted in the actual minimum and maximum price band as well as very closed to actual model price. But as the period goes on, the forecasted prices are not consistent with actual trading price because the change in policy of the government and private trading organisation.

Literature Cited:

Makridakis, 2008 Whedlwright and Hyndman Forecasting methods and applications.

Najeeb Iqbal Khuda Bakshi, Asif Maqbool and Ahohab Ahmad, 2002, Use of ARIMA Model for Forecasting Wheat Area and Production in Pakistan, Journal of Agriculture and Social Sciences

Mathur, V.C., 2001, Export Potential of Onion: A case study of India, Regional Workshop on Commodity Export Diversification and Poverty Reduction in South and South –East Asia